The Bullroarer - Tuesday 3rd June 2008

Bus + Coach - Fuel pain could be a blessing for public transport

The price of diesel, like that of petrol and every other oil-based product, will continue to rise. Thanks to skyrocketing transport costs most goods and services will rise in price. Predictions about oil reaching $200 per barrel (it’s already well above $130) are more about when rather than if.

The reality is the concept of peak oil is becoming more than a theory, it is becoming a reality. Whether this is because of the theory infiltrating the oil futures market or a fact is anyone’s guess. Simply put, the markets have created a situation where there isn’t enough supply of fuel to satisfy the demand.

The bus industry has been a champion in finding alternatives for years with more efficient engines, alternative fuels and hybrid technology as well as buses being a way to reduce the overall carbon footprint and reduce fuel usage by taking up to 70 cars off the road at a time. Looking at the silver lining oil cost is a blessing to the industry and it is time for suppliers, operators and associations to show the positives of investing in public transport.


The Australian - $2bn plan to 'fuel petroleum needs'. Blood and coal ?

A $2 BILLION coal project will be unveiled today in Victoria's Latrobe Valley as its backer suggests Australia could replace all petroleum imports by turning the nation's vast reserves of brown coal to oil. Victorian Premier John Brumby will launch the Australian Energy Company's project to turn brown coal into enough urea, a nitrogen-rich fertiliser, to supply Australia's needs.

The plant uses coal gasification and condensing technology. Its backers say all the CO2 produced will be stored beneath the sea, making it a "clean coal" project. The entrepreneur behind the project, Allan Blood, said Victoria's reserves of brown coal had enormous potential for fertiliser and oil production. The plant would generate 1.2million tonnes a year of urea and all the CO2 produced would be stored in reservoirs that once contained natural gas in Bass Strait.

Joel Makower - Going Down Under, Down Under

My too-brief Australian adventure took place en route to Wellington, New Zealand, from where this is being written. I'm here for World Environment Day, which, for the initiated, is a United Nations-sponsored event, celebrated since the mid 1980s each June 5, hosted by a different city. Wellington is this year's host and the theme — "Kicking the Carbon Habit" — seems as fanciful as it is formidable. In typical U.N. fashion, it is relatively uncontroversial, meaning no swipes at Big Oil or Big Coal, no carping at Big Auto or Big Finance, no finger-pointing at Big Mining or Big Timber, no blaming of countries, political leaders, or pretty much anyone else. We're all here to be part of the solution.

Everything else down here should be so uncomplicated. Unfortunately, Australia and, so a lesser extent, New Zealand, seem to be going through the same throes of change as their brethren in Japan, North America, Europe, and elsewhere. High energy prices are roiling national politics, leading legislators to propose short-term gas tax rollbacks to ease prices at the pump. Administration officials, scientists, and activists are debating the extent to which the country should cut its carbon emissions — and who should pay for it. Critics charge the national government is giving short shrift to clean energy, while solar, geothermal, and wind energy companies are vying with one another over who will get the spoils of the country's growing appetite for clean energy. Meanwhile, the local media are having a field day finding hypocrites amid the ranks: legislators touting fuel efficiency but driving gas-guzzlers; corporations touting their green credentials but leaving their office lights burning brightly all night; the frivolity of government ethanol mandates amid rising food prices.

Port Macquarie News - Look at detail says power plant company

THE company behind the power plant proposed in the Camden Haven wants the community to assess the submission in detail. International Power Australia has lodged an application with the state government to build a $110 million power plant just north of the Kew sewage treatment plant, about 24km south-west of Port Macquarie.

The plan has whipped up community outrage. International Power Australia group manager corporate affairs Jim Kouts said the company was aware of community concerns. "We are seriously trying to put across as much detail as we can," he said. "We are providing to the community everything we are providing to the government," he said.

The plant would run during times of peak energy demand up to 10 per cent of the year. Mr Kouts said the company was responding to the area's growing energy needs. "We appreciate the concerns but we would also urge people to carefully look at the detail in our submission when you compare other options," he said. International Power Australia plans to run the plant on diesel fuel with the capacity to convert to gas down the track, if a gas pipeline comes through the area.

The Australian - Shell joins coal seam gas race

GLOBAL gas majors are in a scramble to get a foothold in Queensland's rapidly evolving coal seam methane industry, having bid more than $10 billion for reserves in the past few days as they look to feed a huge predicted jump in Asian liquefied natural gas demand.

The Australian - Benefits of deals break on Beach Petroleum

ADELAIDE'S "other" oil and gas group Beach Petroleum believes that coal-seam methane (CSM) reserves on its books at $40 million are now worth about $1 billion, thanks to a flurry of deals and attempted deals in the sector. The action in the CSM market hit fever pitch in last week's spectacular deal between Santos and Malaysia's Petronas and continued yesterday as Arrow Energy sold some of its deposits to Shell. Long the poor cousin in the oil and gas sector, CSM's sharp re-rating in recent weeks has taken many by surprise.

Crikey - Oil Futures part 4: A series on oil, the future, and you

The high price of petrol today is causing discomfort among motorists. So much so that our federal politicians have spent almost two weeks haggling over whose scheme is best suited to knocking a few cents per litre from the pump price.

But in a world where oil is increasingly scarce, where the security of supply remains a problem, and where the environmental cost of using fossil fuels to power your car will be factored into the pump price, is that the right response? What are the long terms solutions to our oil dependence? And is this the beginning of a new era of high-priced oil?

Crikey asked a panel of experts to answer questions on the good old days of cheap oil, what the politicians should really be arguing about, and how our economy will look when petrol costs many dollars per litre. Today, in the final in the series, Tihomir Ancev, lecturer in resource and environmental economics at the University of Sydney, answers Crikey's questions.

SMH - War based on a lie, says Rudd

THE withdrawal of Australian combat troops from Iraq reopened old wounds yesterday, when Kevin Rudd accused the Coalition of taking the nation to war based on a lie. In a terse statement to Parliament, the Prime Minister said the Howard government had embarked on the mission using abused intelligence and "without a full and proper assessment" of the consequences. Supporting the war without approval of the United Nations had set a dangerous precedent and undermined the international system, Mr Rudd said.

Peak Energy - A war based on a lie

Brendan Nelson wasn't happy about this, complaining about weapons of mass destruction, Islamic terrorism and all sorts of other phantom menaces posed by the disarmed, secular dictator of Iraq at the time (now conveniently long dead courtesy of the death squad he was handed over to after his rushed trial, which had somehow avoided going over his worst crimes, possibly because of the inconvenient issues presented by naming his accomplices).

In honour of this little outburst, Crikey celebrated Dr Nelson's little bout of inadvertent truth telling last year, when he noted that the war was about oil.

Crikey - Iraq Withdrawal Sparks Only Polite Outrage From Nelson

Parliament took some time out from the petrol debate yesterday -- although, toward the end, even the Opposition chucked it in and began asking about something else. Question time was preceded by statements from Rudd and Nelson on the Iraq withdrawal.

Rudd commendably took the opportunity to get stuck into the previous Government over its participation in the attack on Iraq. This should never be glossed over or forgotten -- the Coalition took a considered decision to commit Australian troops to an illegal, immoral and, as it has turned out, plain stupid attack on Iraq, and Simon Crean, who was Opposition Leader at the time, copped plenty for leading Labor in opposing it.

Five years and literally uncounted tens of thousands of Iraqi dead later, a Labor Government is withdrawing our troops and the best the Coalition can do is mumble about the job not being done. ...

More impressively, however, Nelson did what only Dick Cheney has so far been willing to do -- link the war on Iraq to September 11, talking at length about "the heinous events of 11 September 2001" and how it explained the need to remove Saddam Hussein (and can everyone in public life please look up how to pronounce "heinous", because none of you ever do. If in doubt, watch the end of Kentucky Fried Movie for an excellent discussion of its pronunciation).

Don’t dismiss Nelson’s link out of hand. This is the bloke, after all, who as Defence Minister in the previous Government declared that Australia should stay in Iraq because of its oil.

Which, at the very least, gives the lie to the Government’s claims that the Coalition did nothing about oil prices during its time in office. On the contrary, it actually went to the trouble of joining in a war over oil. It’s just that it was a miserable failure.

One for Boof from REW:

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/story?id=52588

Less than 0.4 percent of Germany's total primary energy supply came from geothermal sources in 2004. But after a renewable energy law that introduced a tariff scheme of EU €0.15 [US $0.23] per kilowatt-hour (kWh) for electricity produced from geothermal sources came into effect that year, a construction boom was sparked and the new power plants are now starting to come online.

"Geothermal sources could supply Germany's electricity needs 600 times over," Werner Bussmann, CEO of the German Geothermal Association [Geothermische Vereinigung], told RenewableEnergyWorld.com.

He said special, cost effective technology allowed energy to be extracted from geothermal reservoirs containing low- to moderate-temperature water that are so typical of Germany.

Innovative technology is important because Germany, unlike countries such as Iceland, Italy or Indonesia, does not have volcanic activity or the associated dry steam reservoirs that can be used to produce electricity directly.

"Geothermal electricity has the advantage of being available 24 hours a day, 8000 hours a year, and this makes it a great source of baseload power," Bussmann said.

He predicted that Germany could be generating several thousands of megawatts (MW) of electricity from geothermal sources in a couple of decades. There are already four small geothermal power plants successfully operating in Germany, albeit supplying only a tiny amount of electricity.

More plants — some as big as 8-10 MW — are due to go into operation in 2009-2010 in Sauerlach, Dürrnhaar, Riedstadt, Speyer, Gross Schoenebeck and Mauerstetten. And looking 3 to 5 years ahead, there could be more than a hundred plants. About 150 geothermal power plant projects are in the pipeline representing an investment of 4 billion euros, according to the German government. ...

The first pioneer geothermal plant to start operating in Germany is situated in Neustadt-Glewe in the north-eastern part of the country. The 230-kW combined electricity and heat power plant started up in 2003 and extracts water with a temperature of 97 °C from a well 2250 meters under the ground. It supplies 1,300 households with heat and a further 500 households with electricity.

Other plants now operating are the 3.5-MW plant at Unterhaching close to Munich, in Bavaria, which supplies 20,000 households with electricity and heat as well as Unterhaching, which is the first geothermal plant in Germany to use the "Kalina" technology that allows energy to be extracted from water of low to moderate temperatures. At that plant water is extracted at a temperature of 122 °C from a well 3,500 meters deep at a rate of 150 liters a second. Another 2.5-MW plant in Landau taps water of 150°C that is located 3,000 meters beneath the ground. Finally, an EU €17 million [US $26.7 million] 550-kW plant is due to go into operation in Bruchsal this autumn. The power plant will extract water at temperatures of 128°C from a well 2500 meters deep to generate electricity for 1000 households.

Ill just post my (slightly edited) letter to the editor Re $2bn plan to 'fuel petroleum needs', which also appeared in The Age as "$2bn fertiliser plant for Latrobe Valley" by Philip Hopkins.

"THERE are virtually no greenhouse gas emissions", stated the article headed "$2bn fertiliser plant for Latrobe Valley" (BusinessDay, 3/6).

Now, it may be true that the technology promoted by the Australian Energy Company can indeed turn dirty coal into nitrogen fertiliser. But company chairman Allan Blood is disingenuous in claiming that this is a "clean coal" initiative.

When urea is applied to soil, for it to act as a fertiliser, it dissociates into, guess what? Why, carbon dioxide and ammonia.

This technology is not "clean" in any sense. At the expense of some energy, it just moves the location of greenhouse gas emissions from the power station to the farm.

See wikipedias page on Urea

But all you really need to know is contained in this formulae

(NH2)2CO + H2O ↔ 2 NH3 + CO2

It is "cleaner" to produce Urea from natural gas. The argument for using coal might more plausibly be that gas is going up in price and we want to use it for something else.

I suspect the German geothermal is warm water for district heating, not for large scale electrical generation. I'm still waiting for that hot dry rock setup that generates a lot of electricity and recycles the water.

Recalling a recent Peak Energy article on the clean energy 'miracle' in Germany I wonder if the whole country is full of shysters. They don't seem to have an answer for the 85% of their energy which is not renewable, the financial unsustainability of feed-in tariffs, their dependence on Russian gas, the fact their massive wind investment is largely idle or why they want to build new coal fired power stations.

Changing topic I believe that a decomposition product of urea in the soil is nitrous oxide with a CO2 equivalence of 310. I suspect Brumby will give the go ahead if the factory claims to be CO2 'capture ready' for some unspecified future time. That way we'll get multiple greenhouse emissions for decades. No doubt the Vic budget will also allow for plenty of new highways as just announced by Qld and NSW.

You are right Boof.

The ammonia released from urea is either volatilised, taken up by organisms and used for growth or oxidised to nitrate by bacteria. The nitrate in turn can be reduced in the poor spaces of the soil low in oxygen (ie it is a substitute for O2 for some bacteria). In the process, and depending on the conditions N2O and/or N2 are released.

Nitrous Oxide (N2O) is a greenhouse gas with an average life time in the atmosphere closer to 100-200 years and is an ozone destroyer.

I note the Burrup ammonia plant in WA
http://www.burrupholdings.com/
will be one of the world's largest so we could be OK for decades in Australia for N fertilisers. Unless we flog all the gas to northern hemisphere customers. Also we should not be squandering gas on baseload power as is done in a few places.

However if overseas buyers are desperate for synthetic N as well as gas we will have to pay world prices. Maybe the trick is use natural N such as legume rotations, sheep poo or sewage sludge and boost it slightly with synthetic. This probably won't be enough for wheat farmers chasing top yields with 'deep' nitrogen. I also note councils scatter prilled urea on mulch heaps of green waste. Helps the breakdown apparently.

Either we flog off the gas or flog off the nitrogen... that seems to be the "stratagem".

Legume rotations of course take a percentage of the land out of production.

Although I have few qualms about drinking the water that can be produced from a sewer, there is a limit to how much of the sludge can be used due to metal content.

Other systems (eg aquaponics) I think work on a smaller scale than Australian broad acre farming is usuallly practiced.

The use of urea on the green waste is probably to do with getting the C:N balance right for fast breakdown. In a similar way, wood chips or sawdust are added to composting toilets (it's not just to soak up the moisture and hide odour leaks).

In rice paddies fish, chickens (in pens over the paddy), pig and human faceas and algae all help on the nitrogen inputs side. The fish, chickens, pigs and human wastes provide N from the extra proteinacious foodstocks... the algae, in the form of the blue greens, because they can fix nitrogen form the atmosphere (room temperature, standard pressure: its a neat trick).

I think there is, in the long run, no alternative to "relocalisation" of food production. No matter what system you use, be it industrial, "organic" or "permaculture", the moment you export food, you are exporting nutrients and water. As much as possible, that loop needs to be closed.

The hard limit is P. It can't be fixed from the atmosphere by bacteria. It cycles thru the environment on a completely different time scale.

In rice paddies fish, chickens (in pens over the paddy), pig and human faceas and algae all help on the nitrogen inputs side.

It's worth mentioning that methane from rice paddies (all the organic matter rotting in the water) is a significant contributor to greenhouse gases. It's not just from cow farts.

It's a bit hard to see how they can reduce that much. We can eat less burgers without hurting at all - in fact it'd help our health - but the sorts of people who have rice paddies can't really eat less rice, it's all they have.

I think there is, in the long run, no alternative to "relocalisation" of food production. No matter what system you use, be it industrial, "organic" or "permaculture", the moment you export food, you are exporting nutrients and water. As much as possible, that loop needs to be closed.

I think local production of fruit, vegetables, meat and dairy is likely in the future, but economies of scale may still favour distant large farm production of grain, as I write in the shape of food to come.

However, you perhaps overstate the case of exporting nutrients. It doesn't have to be that way.

If you put in a green manure crop - alfalfa, clover, etc - and mix it with some livestock, then the crop will draw nitrogen from the air, you can plough them back in, and/or keep livestock going, and they'll put the nitrogen in the ground in the form of poo. It's only if you grow wheat (or whatever) endlessly that the nitrogen will deplete. So the N part of NPK doesn't have to deplete.

Likewise, for phosphorous we can have poultry on the farm. Currently for most battery hen farms, turkey farms and so on, the phosphorous-rich manure is simply washed away down the drain. It needn't be so.

So that by having more mixed farms with crop rotation - as is traditional around the world - the NPK won't be exported at all, but will be replenished naturally.

But let's suppose we're too lazy and incompetent to do that. Humans excrete in urine about 0.2g potassium and 1g phosphorous daily, and much more nitrogen (in the form of urea). Going on the concentration of the lowest fraction (potassium), we find that about 5 million tonnes of each of NPK appears in human urine annually. This happens to be about the amount of each actually used annually.

The half of the world population living in urban areas, already their sewage is collected for cleaning up and discharging into the sea. If some could be diverted to extract the NPK, then that in combination with green manure, some poultry and so on, these could easily supply the NPK requirements.

Medieval Japan collected the manure and urine of humans from the cities and returned it to the land. I don't see why the modern world can't do it.

the sorts of people who have rice paddies can't really eat less rice, it's all they have.

Did I suggest eating less rice for those "sorts of people"?

I thought my comment demonstrated how other agricultural systems are integrated so that production of one item (eg chickens) acts as an input to another (provision of N).

Cow poo is low in nitrogen... and there is a reason... that nitrogen has been converted to cow. It would be wasteful of a cow to be excreting too much of a nutrient that is in relatively short supply in its feed stock... that's why we boost that with protein supplements.

Likewise, for phosphorous we can have poultry on the farm.

Well where are the hens getting it? Layers pellets? Yes, there is some P in the soil... and yes you could import some limestone chips for them too. But generally Australian soils are not rich in phosphorous.

Nutrient cycling is like thermodynamics... there are no perpetual motions... (weak pun intended).

Exporting grain is exporting P. The seed contains the P rich DNA and RNA and the molecular machinery required to start the whole process over.

All your other suggestions are demonstrations of what I urged in stating "as much as possible that loop needs to be closed".

Surely this indicates that I also think "it doesn't need to be this way"?

We can reuse our sewer waste to a point. But the heavy metal content of the waste sludge from our cities is high enough that agricultural use must be monitored.

I think the Germans have done well shifting from 0% renewables to 15% renewables so quickly - and ditching nuclear power while they did it.

Hopefully they'll be heading towards 50% in 10 years time and we'll be hot on their heels...

I think you'll find they have higher energy prices and higher per capita emissions than France. I need to check this though.

And when they reach their goal they'll have lower emissions, lower prices and no dependence on foreign sources of fuel (and depleting ones at that).

"price" is not a true "reality", it is a perception.
We use "price" as a guide to our actions, it shows us what other people are desiring... But the moment we use it as the sole guide, we have lost contact with critical thinking.

If the desires/needs/wants of the population shift...

To put it another way...

No matter how a physicist feels about a metre... a metre is a metre is a metre.

No matter how a chemist feels about a mol.. a mol is a mol is a mol.

Can the same be said of commodity items and money? No. Well not always.

People can lose faith in currency systems.
People can suddenly realise that pink diamonds are as "valuable" as white diamonds because they are called "champagne" diamonds... when in the bigger scheme of things, both of them are common. People even think that Big Brother and The Footy Show harbour "talent".

The real question is what is of value...?
Price is populist.

About price I am indifferent. About emissions, let's take a look.

According to wikipedia, France has 8.7t CO2 emissions per capita (not CO2e, but CO2), and Germany 12.3t.

While per capita emissions are important in fairness terms, current reduction and development efforts around the world aren't looking things in those terms, but rather in total emissions.

According to the UN report giving data for Kyoto [source],

from 1990 to 2004 we got,
France 567.1 to 562.6 million tonnes CO2e
Germany 1,226.3 to 1,015.3 million tonnes CO2e

Notable is the fact that France had a 0.8% decline from 1990-2000, then 0.2% increase from 2000-2004; while Germany had a 17.2% decline from 1990-2000, and a 0.7% decline from 2000-2004. So it seems that as soon as they set their minds to a reduction, they achieved a lot quickly, but after that slacked off a bit.

The same report also tells us that overall for Annex I countries, emissions declined by 9.4% from 1990-2004; energy use and transport-related emissions went up, but manufacturing, waste and "other" emissions went down, and the changes in land use absorbed some carbon.

Of course this includes countries like Turkey, where emissions went up 75% or more 1990-2000. It also includes countries like Australia and the US, the former which only recently signed the Kyoto Treaty and has had about a 25% increase on 1990 emissions, the latter which still has not signed and has had a 16% increase.

The greatest growth is in transport-related emissions, 23.9% over 1990-2004.

Overall, they went from 0.84 to 0.60kg CO2e per dollar GDP.

So it appears that it's quite possible to reduce emissions, including energy-related emissions, but a country has to actually set its mind to doing so.

Did you miss the news item where the opposition claimed that removing the NW Shelf condensate excise exemption would raise petrol prices?
(Or was it in a previous day?)

I should just try and laugh at these statements.

Anyone ever wondered what the relationship is between petroleum consumption and price?

It's possible to make a stab at it using publicly available data, which I've attached for the interest of any data-heads.

The relationship is not very clear at all! It's no more predictive than a bit of common sense.

I'd say economic activity would be at least one of the missing factors.

It possible that some change in the consumption numbers reflects stock changes, not actual consumption.

I hope the graph size is OK, I couldn't work out how to restrict the image size.

Thanks for that.

I agree economic activity is an important missing factor - iprobably just as important as the price change...