The Bullroarer - Wednesday 4th June 2008

The Dominion Post - Gearing now for peak oil shock

A movement that "stops the 'overwhelm'; the feeling 'but what can I do'? It's an opportunity for people to come from an individual standpoint and make a difference."

That's how Normandale resident Juanita McKenzie describes Transition Towns. It's a model in which community-based initiatives facilitate transition from a globalised, oil-dependent society to a resilient, re-localised society that can thrive in a world where there is less abundant cheap oil.

Manning Clark House (ANU) - Imagining the real: Life on a greenhouse Earth (PDF flyer).

The release of some 300 billion tons of carbon by Homo sapiens since the start of the industrial revolution has made its mark on the atmosphere, oceans and biosphere. In the mid-1980s a climate change threshold was crossed, and accelerations were observed in atmospheric greenhouse gas levels, mean global temperatures, sea and continental ice melt and sea level rise rates. Consequences included an increasingly frequent El Nino, migration of climate zones towards the poles, changes in precipitation and drought patterns, and higher storm and flood intensities. In 1987, the renowned oceanographer Wallace S. Broecker of Columbia University wrote: “The inhabitants of Earth are quietly conducting a gigantic experiment. So vast and sweeping will be the consequences that, were it brought before any reasonable council for approval, it would be firmly rejected. Yet it goes on with little interference from any jurisdiction or nation…. We play Russian roulette with climate, hoping that the future will hold no unpleasant surprises. No one knows what lies in the active chamber of the gun.” (Nature 328, 123-26, 1987)

By 2006, when James Lovelock’s The Revenge of Gaia appeared, half a century after Rachel Carson’s ground-breaking classic The Silent Spring, evidence from major climate research bodies confirmed that the Earth’s atmosphere - the lungs of the biosphere- was in crisis. Further global warming is now inevitable. However, human scientific and technical prowess hold out hope that mitigation of the worst consequences of runaway climate change may still be possible. Can we act in time? Can the $trillions being spent on wars and armaments be diverted to save civilization? Will multinational corporations invest in true “futures”? This conference will explore the origins and consequences for life and civilization of the severe greenhouse conditions predicted for the next few centuries. Sessions A and B (on Wednesday) focus on the scientific prognosis for climate change and implications for biological habitats. Sessions C and D (on Thursday) explore challenges to human society of coping with life on a warming planet. ...

SESSION C – Orwellian scenarios on a warming planet
Chair: Dr Barrie Pittock

9.00 The politics of fear on a warming planet.
Dr Carmen Lawrence

9.25 The biological and human consequences of climate change.
Prof Tony McMichael

9.50 Social and economic scenarios on a greenhouse Earth.
Dr David Denham

10.15 Human and political scenarios on a warming planet.
Tony Kevin


Bloomberg - Santos Predicts Growth in Unconventional Gas Supplies

Unconventional sources of natural gas, such as coal seam and shale, are likely to increase their contribution to supplies of the fuel, said Santos Ltd., Australia's third-biggest oil and gas producer. These forms of gas make up about a third of the U.S.'s 24.5 trillion cubic feet of annual consumption and will become more important in Asia, David Knox, Acting Chief Executive Officer of Adelaide-based Santos, said today at an investor briefing. Santos may book its first unconventional gas resources this year, said Rick Wilkinson, vice-president of commercial operations.

Gas demand in eastern Australia may more than double in the next decade, driven by the introduction of carbon trading and the start-up of liquefied natural gas export projects in Queensland state, Santos said. Rising consumption will boost prices, said the company, operator of the Cooper Basin project, Australia's biggest onshore source of gas.

SMH - Passengers miss the bus again

THE devil is in the detail - especially in a NSW budget. The State Government has trumpeted record spending on public transport, including funding for 150 new articulated buses to soak up growing demand on the State Transit network. And yet a close look at the budget papers reveals there is insufficient funding for even one new government bus in the coming financial year.

A week ago, the Premier, Morris Iemma, described the $112 million spending on 150 new buses as "sensible planning" to "meet the inevitable growth that will come as Sydney grows and petrol prices rise". But just $100,000 has been allocated for 2008-09 for "new buses for passenger growth for State Transit Authority". An articulated bus costs more than $600,000 on the road.

SMH - The slow-moving Tuesday shuffle for 'cheap' petrol

THE queue begins at 6am and remains until the pumps close at midnight - a slow-moving stream of resigned faces. Known for being among the cheapest petrol stations in Sydney, the Caltex servo on the Hume Highway at Chullora attracts scores of motorists every Tuesday.

At 5.05pm, 25 cars are lined up waiting to pay $1.48 a litre. Locals regularly wait up to half an hour for a saving of about $4 to $5 a tank. "It's like this every Tuesday, without fail," said 24-year-old Joanne Michalotoulos. By 5.30pm cars have begun spewing out of the driveway onto the Hume Highway, causing considerable traffic congestion and creating a safety hazard in the wet greasy conditions.

SMH - We need tough love, not bad parenting

But in the moral cowardice department, our truly adept practitioners, our mentors and role models, are at the top. Note, after the first stupid fuss, the abject political silence on the Henson case. They know nudity isn't pornography, but they tuck their honour behind their populist tut-tutting and stay low. More urgent and abysmal still is the fuel-price fiasco. Kevin Rudd's obvious riposte is that one promise broken is actually another promise kept: what looks like abandonment of the fuel-price promise is actually adherence to the climate-change promise. High fuel prices are the best thing that could happen to us. The higher the better. Rudd knows it, but he won't say it.

The truth is that fuel is like food. Our capacity to suck calories from nature began as survival but custom and convenience have made us wildly, self-destructively profligate in this pursuit. Of course, food is fuel. It is no accident that food and fuel prices are now soaring, together and in parallel, across the globe. Peak oil and population pressure, long dreaded, are here. Fossil fuels, even in the production of food, worsen climate change, making food harder to extract, requiring more fuel and so on. Vicious circle.

The Australian - Santos in NSW coal seam methane gas find

OIL and gas producer Santos has announced potential coal-seam methane resources in NSW to rival Australia's biggest offshore find and says it is considering exporting them as liquefied natural gas. Santos, whose shares have been running hot after it secured an unexpectedly high price last week for Queensland CSM reserves from Malaysia's Petronas, said yesterday it had 40 trillion cubic feet of potential resources at its Gunnedah Basin, near the town of the same name.

The Australian - Apache announces force majeure on its gas supply contracts

APACHE Energy has declared force majeure on gas supply contracts after an explosion forced the closure of its Varanus gas plant.
The fire at the Western Australian plant marks the second time this year that an incident at a major gas plant has sparked serious shortages in WA, raising concerns about the state's heavy reliance on two key gas suppliers.

The Australian - Dampier Bunbury gas pipeline expansion all set

The Australian - Anderson is confident about gas, naturally

FORMER deputy prime minister John Anderson has big plans for coal seam gas minnow Eastern Star Gas. The company will become "a very, very big player on the east coast, and in particular the biggest in NSW, because of where we are", says Mr Anderson, who is chairman of Eastern Star Gas. "The fact is, we have location, location, location. There is very little NSW-sourced gas."

One more from The Independent, looking at energy options for Britain - decentralised renewable energy generation vs centralised nuclear power - Greener power to the people: the real energy alternative?.

Ministers could avoid building nuclear reactors by encouraging families to fit solar panels and other renewable energy equipment to their homes, a startling official report concludes. The government-backed report, to be published tomorrow, says that, with changed policies, the number of British homes producing their own clean energy could multiply to one million – about one in every three – within 12 years.

These would produce enough power to replace five large nuclear power stations, tellingly at about the same time as the first of the much-touted new generation of reactors is likely to come on stream. And, it adds, by 2030, such "microgeneration" would save the same amount of emissions of carbon dioxide – the main cause of global warming – as taking all Britain's lorries and buses off the road.

The conclusions of the report – approved and partly financed by the Department of Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform (DBERR) – sharply contrast with initiatives hurriedly launched by Gordon Brown last week in reaction to the lorry drivers' fuel-price protests.

In his most pro-nuclear announcement to date, the Prime Minister indicated that he wanted greatly to increase the number of atomic power stations to be built in Britain. And he met oil executives in Scotland to urge them to pump more of the black gold from the North Sea's fast-declining fields – even though his own energy minister, Malcolm Wicks, admitted that this would do nothing to reduce the price of fuel.

Even more embarrassingly for the embattled Mr Brown, the report closely mirrors policies announced by the Conservative Party six months ago to start "a decentralised energy revolution" by "enabling every small business, every local school, every local hospital, and every household in the country to generate electricity".

Yesterday Peter Ainsworth, the shadow Environment Secretary, said: "We have found that there are huge economic, social and environmental gains to be made by doing this. It is good that, at last, part of the Government seems belatedly to be coming to the same conclusion, and we can only hope that the Prime Minister can rise above his panic-stricken clutching at old technologies and grasp the opportunities microgeneration offers for clean and more secure energy supplies."

That SMH story, "The slow-moving Tuesday shuffle for 'cheap' petrol", had a good quote about the power of our oil addiction...

"There's one good thing about the price of petrol - I've had to give up smoking so I can drive my car."

There you go - something good about high oil prices :-)

Reading the Santos website
http://www.santos.com.au/Default.aspx?p=1
they seem to think there is plenty of bling in CLNG. Instead of flogging the lot to Asian customers I think a high proportion of the CSM should be blended into the natgas pipeline network to Adelaide, Sydney and Melbourne. Ferguson should smooth the path for trucking companies to convert to CNG (actually 'CCSM') as a fuel in lieu of diesel. This could require extra lines to truck depots, financial help installing compressors and a favourable excise.

I also see that Santos admits that Cooper Basin (unlike Bass Strait) has plenty of parking space for unwanted CO2. I'd stick to CSM for the meanwhile.

Re rooftop PV displacing baseload I think that would need a thin film cost breakthrough coupled with cheap multi-kwh batteries ie micro generation + storage. No need for solar farms in the outback with vulnerable and expensive transmission lines.