The Bullroarer - Thursday 12th March 2009

Guide2 - Meridian: Renewables Cheapest Method For New Energy Production

Wellington, March 12 NZPA - Geothermal, wind and hydro power are the most cost-effective means of power generation for New Zealand, Meridian Energy executives told Parliament's Commerce Select Committee today.

ABC - Qld predicted to lose $10 billion coal production

The Queensland Resources Council (QRC) is predicting a $10 billion drop in the value of the state's coal production next financial year.

The first benchmark prices for thermal coal released today are down 44 per cent on last year's record levels.

TVNZ - Cars and oil lead import-export volume fall

The volumes of merchandise imports and exports have fallen, according to the latest figures from Statistics New Zealand.

For the three months to the end of December 2008, seasonally adjusted import volumes fell 4.8% following a 5.3% decline in September, while export volumes fell 1.8%, continuing the downward trend recorded in the previous three quarters.

The fall in imports was driven mostly be the 27.1% drop-off in volumes of cars, followed by capital goods which were down 7.7%.

A reduction in crude oil led the decline in export volumes which was down due to lower production levels.

ABC - Australia on 'solo climate crusade': Joyce

Nationals Senate Leader Barnaby Joyce says Australia's approach to climate change is a "solo crusade".

The Federal Government wants to introduce an emissions trading scheme by the middle of next year but Senator Joyce says it should be waiting to see what the rest of the world agrees to.

Scoop.co.nz - Meridian Energy Earnings Warning

Meridian Energy is expecting its earnings profile to become volatile over coming years because of the impact of International Financial Reporting Standards on the way it treats the value of its Rio Tinto smelter contracts.

Law Fuel NZ - Luce Forward Counsels to Take First Small Wind Renewable Energy Company Public

Luce Forward represents Helix Wind, Inc. to complete its merger with public shell Clearview Acquisitions, Inc.

IRVINE, Calif. (March 11, 2009 - LAWFUEL) – Luce, Forward, Hamilton & Scripps today announced it represented Helix Wind, Inc. in taking the global renewable energy company public through a reverse merger into Clearview Acquisitions, Inc.

The merger represents the first small wind renewable energy company to go public.

The Australian - ETS 'to make millions retrain'

THE federal Opposition yesterday hardened its stance on Labor's emissions trading scheme, claiming it would cost tens of thousands of jobs in a deteriorating economy.

Copenhagen Climate Change meeting, Glass Half Empty:
ABC - Greens and industry square off over climate plan

If the climate science was already alarming, this week it got worse.

Meeting in Copenhagen this week, climate scientists said sea-level rise may well exceed one metre this century .. well over the prediction of between 18 and 59 centimetres made by the U-N's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change last year. If true, there'll be catastophic implications and the scientists have urged swift cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. The news came as Australia's government released draft legislation on its plans for cutting emissions and shaping a low carbon economy. But industry is screaming it'll take the country back to candles and horses, while green groups say its a sorry tradeoff to big polluters who jeopardise the planet's future.

Same meeting, but Glass Half Full:
SMH - Some good news on climate change

At last, there is some good news on climate change.

Thousands of the world's climate experts have gathered in Denmark to hear the latest on global warming.

The news on the science is bad: climate change is happening faster than was thought only a few years ago.

But conference participant and Australian National University (ANU) academic Will Steffen says there is a glimmer of hope.

Experts are reporting the success of energy efficiency measures, which are slashing greenhouse gas emissions "at absolutely no impact on lifestyles or economies".

Other reports from Copenhagen:
The Australian - Seas 'rise faster than forecast' because of climate change

News Medical - Health impacts of climate change require global action

Canberra Times - Melting glaciers speed up sea rises

ABC - Wind power potential for remote communities

The Power and Water Corporation says they're collecting data from 12 sites across the Barkly Tablelands, to look at using wind power in remote communities.

The Sustainable Energy Manager, Trevor Horeman, says the aim is to replace diesel fuel with wind power to run Indigenous communities.

Is:

"Seas rise faster than forecast"

code for "we've just passed the tipping point"?

Possibly. Even if it isn't, I think you would agree that there are plenty of other coded signals for that? eg:
Increased Methane Levels Recorded in the Arctic

The old forecast excluded the effect of the glacial sheets of West Antartica dn Greenland, because enough was not know about the dynamics at the cut-off point for submissions to IPCC 4. Just a few years on, our collective knowledge has advanced to a point where the scientists concerned can start making predictions.

RE: Greens and industry square off over climate plan

Ralph Hillman is executive director of the Australian Coal Association.

HILLMAN: What you would see is a loss of competitiveness. Our share of export markets would decline,

Like hell it will! I'd ask, rhetorically, if he takes us all for fools, but the unfortunate answer is 'yes, he does'. Where does he expect all the massive coal-consuming countries to source their coal from? China is topped out, North America is at historical highs (at least until the GFC hit), we are doing everything we can to get the garbage out of the ground (including placing leases on prime agricultural land). We're already the worlds largest exporter!

What fools like this industry toolbot don't understand is that the Economy is a wholey-owned subsidiary of the Ecosphere, not the other way around!

"Think of the miners! Won't _somebody_ think of the miners?!"

I hope The Greens stick to their guns, and hold the Government accountable, even if it forces a Double Dissolution.

So.... if we export at the rate that Hillman wants, then how much will we end up exporting?
Answer: All of it.

And if we slow up a little, then how much will we end up exporting?
Answer: Most likely all of it, but slightly slower and at a higher price (particularly for that last bit - which won't be burned, it will be made into products).

My conclusion? Even the miners aren't thinking of the miners. The world is crazy - nobody can think more that 3 months into the future.

The thing is that they recently spent zillions on upgrading ports, railways and other facilities so they could sell a shitload more coal. They did that when prices went insane last year, now prices have dropped back down, so they're panicking.

If they just thought about what's likely to happen a few years from now they'd relax, but the average CEO has the attention span of a retarded ADHD three year old on crystal meth.

Who is panicking? Rio and Xstrata shareholders think its a good deal, second highest prices ever. Port expansion planned on prices a few years ago much lower than 2009 contract prices.

Three years ago Australia was in a resource boom, prices for coal and those expected for iron ore in 2009 are actually HIGHER than in 2006. Resource stock prices are about where they were 3 years ago, while Australian 4 largest banks have declined 40%( but are still making more money than 3 years ago).

Bloody hell. I hate agreeing with anyone.
But I have just gotta agree 100% with Bellistner.

While I'm not a population doomer and disagree with most of what is said in this, here's one from Michael Lardelli - Common myths of the population debate.

I have read the article.

"Consumption growth is easily reversible but population growth is not"

Umm.. "easily"?
I assume he means without heartbreak.
The four horsemen will do the job for us.

Easily.(Without our effort.)

As far a increasing the population in the face of constraints, I ask "Who benefits?"
Anyone with an interest in a growing economy.
Pure evil.
Money has to be served regardless of ultimate catastrophy,or suffering.

gav,
The irony is that population growth is portrayed as a looming disaster, but the negative growth rates of high GDP countries, less than replacement also portrayed as a looming disaster. Who is going to look after the old baby boomers?

Yes - I found that a bit incongruous - whatever we do is wrong in Mr Lardelli's eyes, it seems (of course, achieving stable population is the end goal, so population decline could be considered a problem - but one easily rectified via an immigration program if we insist on a stable population level and can't induce citizens to reproduce at replacement rate levels).

His little rant makes sense if you look at it from the point of view of being utterly selfish.

He thinks if the poor of the world stop having babies then he won't have to feel guilty about living on their backs, and can keep on with his high consumption lifestyle.

And he thinks that if we in the West have just enough babies then he won't have to pay high taxes to take care of the elderly.

A couple more from lobes in PNG :

No Fuel in Hagen
http://www.postcourier.com.pg/20090313/news01.htm

Major fuel supplier, InterOil Products Limited yesterday announced that Mount Hagen has run out of all automotive, industrial and aviation fuel.
Supplies in stores in the region are running low and export commodities like coffee and tea are stranded in the region. “The situation has gone beyond critical as there is not enough fuel available to ration. The nation’s third largest city is now effectively without fuel and we do not know when fresh stocks will be brought in. It is only a matter of time before industry, public transport and some important public services begin to wind down,”

Hospitals and police hit
http://www.postcourier.com.pg/20090313/news02.htm

HOSPITALS and police operations in the Western Highlands, Southern Highlands and Enga provinces face a critical situation as the fuel shortage in the region gets worse. Operations in the hospitals in Mendi, Wabag and church-run Mambisanda and Kudjip facilities are now scaled down with fuel reserved for emergency cases only.

The Age has a report on the prospect of CSG to LNG in NSW as well - Eastern Star hoping to turn coal gas into LNG

EASTERN STAR has raised the long-term prospect of its Narrabri coal seam gas joint venture in NSW eventually underpinning a multibillion-dollar liquefied natural gas export project based in Newcastle.

The LNG potential of the project emerged as a key promotional point in the group's successful and heavily over-subscribed $50 million share placement at 55 cents a share.

It comes as the market has been turned on to CSG-to-LNG opportunities after $16 billion was pumped into Queensland projects last year by global industry heavyweights ahead of another $20 billion in planned investments there.

Eastern Star managing director David Casey was not about to overstate the prospect of the Queensland boom in CSG-to-LNG coming to NSW. "We are not saying we are an LNG company. But we hope to be one, and there is no reason why we couldn't be," he said.

Recent drilling results and the joint venture's contingent resource estimate upgrade to 6000 petajoules had given encouragement to begin thinking what Narrabri's coal seams could deliver over and above the 72 petajoules a year spoken for in supply memorandums-of-understanding.

Sorry - no time for a Bullroarer from me this weekend - but here's one from Larvatus Prodeo - Who killed clean coal?.

Joe Romm at Climate Progress has a fascinating story about a US Congressional inquiry into the cancellation of the FutureGen project, a massive demonstration of an integrated, commercial-scale clean coal plant (discussed earlier on LP).

Staffers of the majority (Democratic) members of Congress on the House Science and Technology committee put together a rather extensive report into the issue; the press release announcing the report gets to the crux of the matter:

The report was the result of staff review of thousands of DOE internal documents. That review found that former Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman strongly disliked the project, but to keep the President’s initiative alive, he reconfigured it into a competition under which private companies would be paid to add a CCS component to their IGCC plants. Bodman publicly claimed that the restructured FutureGen would cost less but would result in multiple clean coal demonstrations and expedite the development of clean coal technology. But he was warned numerous times by staff that industry would not respond favorably because participation was not financially advantageous – warnings that were borne out when the Department received only four applications for the new competition. None of them were for IGCC plants, and two of them were not even responsive to DOE’s solicitation.

While it’s important to keep in mind this was put together by Democrats looking for a political angle, their report paints a pretty convincing picture that the Energy Secretary (a member of the Bush Cabinet) was looking for an excuse - any excuse - to kill the project, despite being repeatedly told that FutureGen was essential if carbon capture technology was going to be commercially viable by 2020 or so. He then proposed a “plan B” that had no hope of getting up; the kind of bureaucratic maneuver typically used to disguise killing a policy. In the process, the FutureGen project’s international partners - including Australia - were left completely in the lurch (yet another example of the Howard government getting shafted by the Bush White House, incidentally).

But there’s a broader question here. While it’s beyond the scope of the report, there doesn’t seem to be any indication that industry was lobbying to save the project. That’s just bizarre. Whatever senior executives in the coal industry personally think about climate change, they’d have to be completely moronic to think that carbon regulation isn’t coming. Here was a chance to get the US government to fund a large chunk of the technology that holds out the only hope for the long-term future of their industry. But they were happy to let their lackeys in the Bush White House kill it.

Could it be that the captains of industry... um... don't know how to make Clean Coal work...???
;-)

(And like nuclear, it has to work cheaper than a wind-turbine, otherwise why bother...)