The Bullroarer - Monday 14th July 2008

The Age: Australia falls behind on easiest greenhouse cuts

AUSTRALIA lags behind most rich nations in taking the easiest steps to make an emissions trading scheme as cheap as possible: becoming more energy efficient at home, work and on the road. Due largely to a love of petrol-guzzling cars and an energy-intensive manufacturing sector, Australia's energy efficiency improved at only a third of the rate of the OECD average between 1990 and 2004.

and more from SMH: Nation of climate sinners (Perhaps we should ask the Pope for forgiveness?)

Stop the bus! The NRMA wants to get on..
Herald Sun: NRMA lobbies for fuel efficient cars

A KEY motoring group wants the federal government to limit fuel consumption by Australian-made cars as part of Australia's response to climate change.

The Age: Heavy polluters on emission front line

MEASURES to help households and businesses adjust to a low-emissions economy will be part of a sweeping carbon pollution reduction scheme in the Federal Government's green paper to be released in two days.

The paper will present what the Government calls a whole-of-economy-approach to cutting emissions. The Government, concerned about the political danger as people become aware of how fighting climate change will hit them, will try to reassure working families worried about higher petrol and energy costs, including by promising adjustment help.

ABC: Govts urged to boost public transport, not build more roads

Public transport advocates say a recent CSIRO report predicting $8-a-litre petrol prices by 2018 has sent a clear message that Australia must follow Europe's lead and invest in first-class public transport systems.

Canberra Times: New suburbs 'wrong' for light rail

The ACT Government says affordable housing is driving the need for greenfield sites at Gungahlin and Molonglo. Others believe higher residential densities in town centres will provide affordable housing and essential critical mass for light rail, while safeguarding schools, libraries and other services against closures.

The Australian Institute of Architects ACT Chapter backs the Government's new push for a $1billion light-rail system. But chapter president David Flannery said, ''It would be wrong for the Government to continue to release land at the edges of Canberra and expect a light-rail system serving Civic, the airport and town centres to work.

WA Today: Servos fuel price suspicion over petrol prices

Cynicism is rife in my business. So when it was reported to me that petrol stations had been caught red handed withholding fuel when prices were at their weekly cheapest I was sceptical.

SMH: Smart meters cut power use

AN AGGRESSIVE introduction of smart meters in homes could cut electricity use by as much as 25 per cent during peak demand periods, removing the need to build new power stations for several decades.

GreenLeft: Students of Sustainability

Australia is a leading exporter of coal, shipping millions of tonnes every year around the globe. It was appropriate, therefore, that the annual environmental conference, Students of Sustainability (SoS), was this year held in the world’s coal export capital: Newcastle. Since 1991, SoS has been held in different cities across Australia to facilitate discussion between, and activism of, radical students and young people dedicated to saving our environment.

Some of the topics covered were as simple as composting; what makes good bush tucker and how to dumpster dive. But the big issues of changing society and saving the planet were also tackled, with climate change, peak oil and Aboriginal rights being big talking points.

I love a good piece of extrapolation - time to get out your exponential growth calculators folks. Oh, sorry, did somebody mention peak oil?
ABC: Freight emissions set to double by 2020: report

New figures reveal carbon emissions from the freight transport sector in Australia are set to increase by 100 per cent by 2020.

WA Today: Public transport not prepared for more passengers: Report

The capacity of bus and train services are not prepared to cope with rising passenger numbers, a spokesman from the Australian Association for the Study of Peak oil has said. Convenor for AASPO Bruce Robinson said that motorists should prepare their own fuel shortage plan in the wake of a CSIRO report that petrol may reach up to eight dollars a litre by 2018.

Mr Robinson said the most obvious way to reduce petrol use was for people to walk to closer destinations or use public transport. However, Mr Robinson said the current capacity of bus and train services will buckle under pressure as people turn to public transport as their means of getting by. "If a quarter of people in Perth travel by car and there is a fuel shortage, there will be six times as many people at bus stops," Mr Robinson said. "There are not enough buses to cope."

Scoop NZ: Get into gear to improve Public Transport: Greens

Reports from around New Zealand of overcrowding on buses and trains is evidence of a creaking and groaning public transport system that desperately needs to pick up the pace, Green Party Co-Leader Russel Norman says.

Not only are many passengers forced to stand up during long commuter trips, others are left waiting forlornly at bus stops as buses packed to capacity can't even stop to pick them up. "There's building evidence of overcrowding on public transport across the country at a time when we've got a real opportunity to encourage people on to buses, trains and ferries."

Herald Sun: Nuclear power push comes as report attacks Aussie energy efficiency

AUSTRALIA'S wasteful use of energy has come under the spotlight as Kevin Rudd faces a new push to accept nuclear power.

...

Mr Howes said he was sick of hearing claims that workers in heavy-polluting industries, such as steel and aluminium, could be re-trained in "green" industries. "Frankly that is just bulls...," he said. Instead, workers could be "left on the scrapheap of history" and enter the ranks of the long-term unemployed.

"These guys aren't going to be automatically re-employed as eco-tourism operators," Mr Howes said.

Funniest thing I've heard in awhile. Not much chance of being re-employed in the tourism industry, but they'd know more about that than they would about nuclear engineering. But I bet they could manufacture nice steel structures for a Concentrating Solar Power plant. Talk about a lack of imagination..

The Age: SmartBus plan 'will not work in current form'

MELBOURNE'S $660 million SmartBus service is "seriously underbaked" and will not succeed in getting motorists out of their cars, an influential public transport academic has said. Monash University's chair of public transport, Professor Graham Currie, said the Brumby Government's much-spruiked SmartBus plan must be rethought if it was to succeed. "SmartBus is seriously underbaked by world bus rapid transit system standards," Professor Currie said.

Science Alert: Electric cars ARE the future

This situation favours the all-electric car, particularly if more efficient and lighter batteries can be mass-produced. Battery farms and wall plugs should also be provided in public places. These are not insurmountable problems at all. What is required is the political will to back such a major technological as well as cultural transformation. Fast public decision-making and leading by example are the prerequisites for success.

Sure, the batteries may not be entirely pollution free and more electricity would have to be produced, naturally by sustainable means. Such a massive fuel revolution will require government intervention and leadership on a grand scale. The North Sydney Council has announced one shining example just a few days ago. It is "on-track" to be the first in Australia to install plug-in stations, to meet the expected uptake of hybrid cars (North Shore Times, June 20, 2008)

TVNZ: Road user charges in discussion

Road Transport Forum bosses and Transport Minister Annette King are expected to meet to discuss road user charges on Monday. The meeting follows the recent nationwide protests by truck drivers after a sudden increase in road user charges.

NZ Herald: Fuel and food big push on inflation

A 12 per cent jump in petrol prices over the June quarter is thought to have pushed the annual inflation rate to 3.8 per cent, its highest for seven and a-half years. Market economists and the Reserve Bank are picking a rise of 1.4 per cent in the June consumers price index, due out tomorrow, with about half of it coming from higher petrol prices.

feel free to give us feedback on these BullRoarers..

would you prefer quality over quantity or is this ok?

are folks in NZ feeling short-changed? anybody want to help by sending us good local NZ content?

phil.

Presumably "this" is "quantity"! Fine by me.

Although I bet that the volume of articles can only increase as Peak Oil becomes more obvious to the punters - along with our global lack of preparation!

A recent Drumbreat compilation has had nearly 500 comments; surely some sort of record.
- Given the headache that one gets from reading all that addictive commentary, at least we can sincerely say, "I feel your pain"...

I think the quantity and quality is pretty high tonight.

I second the call for any NZ readers to send in (or post as comments) relevant links - its tricky scanning all the regional media - and as NZ is ahead timezone wise there is plenty of scope to get material in early.

Re the Herald Sun article on nuclear power.Solar thermal,solar PV,geothermal,wind AND nuclear are all viable options for Australia,I believe.
Re the tourism industry.With less air travel and less motor vehicle use due to higher oil cost the tourism industry will decline.There appears to be a lot of government types in denial about this.It might be more to the point to be talking about retraining hospitality workers.
It is unfortunate that there is this emotional block to the very thought of nuclear power in Australia.All the options should be on the table.Note, I am not inclined to think of carbon capture/sequestration as being worthy of serious consideration.This is a Save King Coal scam and spending taxpayer's funds on it is a scandal.
Any thoughts on molten salt reactors?This is not a pie-in-the-sky technology and appears to have many advantages over light water reactors.
Re the Bull Roarer - keep up the good work.

some good points there. we can either retrain by choice, or wait for the industries (like tourism) to decline before we start.

As an engineer, I'm not scared by the word 'radiation' and having worked in the offshore oil and gas industry, I've got a pretty good understanding of how dangerous facilities can be made 'as safe as practical', but never perfectly safe.

i accept that countries with existing nuclear industries will probably have good reason to expand them. but the idea of starting a nuclear industry from scratch in this country when we already have a shortage of engineers is almost ridiculous.

because of the risks involved, the nuclear power industry is a highly specialised, highly regulated and highly monitored industry. after you've found and trained people to build a nuclear station, you need people to operate it and people to maintain it. then you need a whole new government agency with skills that don't exist in this country to regulate and monitor this new industry. even the materials and fabrication techniques needed in nuclear are specialised - you can't use existing engineering supply chains and standards for many components of a nuclear power station.

where on earth are we going to find people to run the universities and other training courses for all of this - there's enough demand for them already. there are no shortcuts for such a high risk industry and you have to maintain the same high level of maintenance and scrutiny from the day it is built till the day it is completely decommissioned otherwise you create an even bigger headache. that's true for both offshore oil and gas and nuclear in the UK - they have both created themselves some enormous decommissioning problems.

everytime something goes wrong in a nuclear plant, especially as it gets old, the amount of effort required to fix the problem becomes incredible. there are regular 'engineering success' stories in the UK of something breaking deep in the radioactive guts of a nuclear facility and the clever people who designed, tested and built robotics or other fancy solutions for their unique problem, each time costing a lot of time, money and resources.

if something breaks on a renewable energy plant, the consequences are pretty small. thus you don't need to monitor or regulate the industry as highly and the skills required are generic - welding, construction, fabrication etc. manufacture standard bits in the factory, take them to site, bolt them together etc - it is almost that simple. the second half of a concentrating solar power plant is steam turbines, which we already have a worldwide industry focussed on.

I have no problem with France continuing to run their nuclear reactors given the experience and skills they have. But we simply do not have enough engineers to be able to develop a new and highly specialised, high risk industry in this country. That is why I think nuclear is the wrong approach in Australia.

So we will need molten salt - but as thermal energy storage for concentrating solar power plants rather than nuclear energy reactors! :-)

We have other options better suited to our social, geographic and technical environment.

But will you be able to run hospitals and aluminium smelters off CSP if it rains everywhere for a week? I noted the Ausra VP interviewed on ABC seemed to back off the notion of solar baseload. I sense a long thread coming up and my preferred link to Ted Trainer is broken.

I think nuke plant will have to be largely prefabricated with automated operation and a fixit flying squad ready to call in at short notice. However some in the know say that option is limited. Realistically that could mean in 10 years time;

not both of nuke and renewable
not either one of nuke or renewable
but neither nuke nor renewable baseload.

No doubt someone will say the Ausra guy really meant something else or that hospitals and aluminium smelters don't need guaranteed power.

Please have a look at the records at the BoM and tell us of a time when it rained across the entire continent of Australia - or even in all eight state and territory capitals - continuously for a weeek.

Just one time, ever in recorded metereological history.

Once.

And if you have a mix of wind, biogas, tidal/wave, geothermal and use pumped storage, there isn't a problem at all.

Even better, no uranium mining, no radiation from the full fuel cycle, no waste, no depletion issues, no bottomless pit of decomissioning costs etc etc etc

Its not really a choice if you take all the factors into account - we should just go straight to the long term solution.

if it's going to rain everywhere for a week (!) then we'll just fire up one of those coal fired power stations that we kept on standby.

seriously, geographically distributed renewables of a various kinds are pretty robust. then once we build up a serious amount of storage we have no problem.

yer i think it should be a mix of it all. we need a baseload, but we already have that. so yer they should get serious about cleaning it up. australia is in the top 3 for know reserves of nuke fuel. but its worse than oil, lets not swap addictions, tho i have no issues in using it as a bridge technology. but from our track record i do see how we will do that responsibly. id rather it fund our permanent fix than become an expense and liability.

use it all, biogas fecal gas reactor large and micro, waste product biofuel, solar (troughs, towers, sterlings), solar to Hydrogen if it can be ramped up, wind tho aus isnt all great for it, wave power which i think seriously needs some more effort, geothermal, hotrocks, home solar and wind micro stations back to the grid, electric car to grid system (re googles), australia needs more water supply so get some hydro in there while they are doing it, weve got lots of gas let use a LITTLE and sell the rest. get gas conversions going with setups that can handle natural, lpg, hydrogen fuels.

infractsture and conservation will play a part, aircars for cities, electric cars for the richer, a rail system like we've never seen, heaps more of the lpg buses they have been trying out. local living and working. ramp up local markets with local producers.

but yer, its not like we have the industry to put ANY of this in.
its all a bit late, none of these ideas can get in place before late 2010 when we a likely to see steep painful 4% decline.

our government needs to stop thinking about whats they best cheapest thing they should do, and just pick some of the serious savers and start putting money on it today. my picks would be; rail, solar thermal to every city, bugger off hybrids and get tata in to mass produce small aircars asap, and get to it like your making tanks from an attack tomorrow.
with our fruitbowl dry, we need to ensure australia stays a net food exporter.

our trucking system is an issue, but it something they need to buffer with our energy exports.

this is still too much too late, i personally have submitted to the idea that we are boned. :p

Laid off coal miners can get jobs as installers of smart meters and drivers of smart buses. That's in about 20 years time when the easy coal has been worked out.

Phil I get the impression there are many more lurkers than prattlers.

I'd respond to that, except it'd ruin my status as a lurker.

FWIW I quite like the Bullroarers as they are :)

Hey hey Boof,

I'm a lurker on the BullRoarer because I'm an American and we have the Drumbeat to prattle on. I read the BullRoarer because I'm putting serious thought into moving to New Zealand or Australia in the next year or two to avoid the severe hardships that peak oil and global warming are going to cause. I'm much more optimistic about the future in the land of OZ than I am about hometown USA primarily because you folks have lower populations and population densities, greater social cohesion and far fewer guns, a broader distribution of wealth, geographic isolation, and lastly OZ is more aware of peak oil then anywhere else.

So should I be posting here or lurking?

I like that graph (though it shows NZ is the most aware, just above Oz).

Everyone is welcome to post here - you don't have to be a local...

Hey hey Big Gav,

My mistake. I new NZ was at the top of the list but I thought that OZ referred to both New Zealand and Australia. I've been to Australia but I hadn't seen the phrase "land of OZ" outside of the oil drum. I should have realized Australia -> Aussie -> OZ, sheltered life I guess.

On an entirely different note I read your post:

feel free to give us feedback on these BullRoarers..

would you prefer quality over quantity or is this ok?

Before anyone else had replied, I didn't feel it was my place to weigh in on before any of the locals had a chance. But here is my 2¢ on the matter: It depends on what you want to accomplish. The Oil Drum Canada had their version called the Round-Up which was focused on the economy until Stoneleigh and Ilargi left to start The Automatic Earth. It seems to me that you can either have a local version of the DrumBeat in each region or you can differentiate by category. Personally I think both would be nice.

Having local versions of the Drumbeat means the local sites can have a bit more of a community feel and focus on issues that probably don't concern (or particularly interest) a global audience.

Having additional subject focused news roundups is also a good idea - its just a problem of bandwidth. I have toyed with the idea of doing a "the week in renewable energy" (or "the week in cleantech") column but if I did that I'd probably never get any long-form posts finished.

team there are thousands of Americans here already. One I sat next to on the plane cited GW Bush as his reason for moving. Social cohesion depends on where you go as rural and coastal areas are a mix of hillbilly boofheads, hippies and ex-city retirees. The back block country may look safer than it is; my speedball popping neighbours go wallaby shooting at 1 am. I'd check out various areas in person.

True, but I have trouble imagining something like the L.A. riots or Waco taking place down under. The USA is a melting pot that isn't finished melting. Which was fine while we were on the up and up and there was plenty for to go around, but on the way down not so much. Someone on the Drumbeat put it nicely: $100 oil is to the USA what the Berlin Wall was to the USSR. The USA is a sinking ship and it's collapse is going to be much more violent than that of the FSU.

I'm not really worried about peak oil and climate change. I can work hard, I can make do with less, I can grow enough food to get by, I know I'll be able to find my way through, it's everyone else I'm worried about. The government of the USA is going to handle the situation very poorly and I fear that the country will eat itself. Russia is probably the best long term bet but my Russian is terrible and I don't like borscht, but in all fairness I'm not that fond of Vegemite.

I'm leaning towards south island NZ because I think that they will collapse early and have a soft landing. This will enable them to reconfigure while other economies are still functioning and producing goods. The USA will collapse late and have a very hard landing. My gut feeling is that large chunks of the nation will devolve into a lawless mess like west Africa is now.

Sorry - if you don't like Vegemite then I think you'll fail the citizenship test - might be best to go to NZ :-)

Hey Team,

The South Island's "soft landing" will be achieved by cutting the power cable to the North Island!
;-)

And if you can't handle Vegemite, I hope you'll enjoy nude rugby..!

See the witch-hunt against 'theokobox' for a reason why people may lurk and not prattle http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4287#comments_top
-93 on the old popularity monitor - wow, is that the top score to date? I guess he was lucky it is a virtual community and not hands-on!

That said, TOD ANZ & Bullroarer is a much more laid back place to be. So if you are a lurker, come out of the closet and give it a try. You might still get savaged, but as the Bee Gees said "It's only words"

Smart meters
Wiki http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_meter says they are already in use in NZ. Anyone got any feedback on them?
My experience in Japan - well not a meter, in the fuse box. Row of lights from green to red. Maximum power limit. If you go onto the red lights this nice lady comes on the door phone speaker and tells you something. First time it happens I was holding this conversation on the door phone with an invisible caller, then everything was invisible as the nice lady gets fed up talking and cuts half the power circuits in the apartment. Effective and straight to the point!
Do we spend all day looking at the lights, no, but we do check if we switch on the microwave whilst the a/c is on.

I'm seeing announcements of smart grid / smart meter experiments and rollouts around the world every day now - I've got a post in the works on the topic.

Ideally we'll eventually end up with home automation systems that include demand management that is linked into the (dynamic) grid pricing network and adjusts our household energy use accordingly - minimising fridge and aircon use for periods of time during peak pricing and charging up the electric car when there is excess solar or wind power flowing into the grid.

The quicker utilities start adopting these things en-masse, the sooner the per-unti price will drop and the more innovation we will see in the area.

A couple more links off the wire today:

http://www.evolvingexcellence.com/blog/2008/07/power-to-the-pe.html
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/07/14/2302581.htm?section=business
http://smartmeters.com/news/Discussion-on-Australia%E2%80%99s-sustainabi...

One more on the Varanus Island explosion too:

ABC - Gas crisis may close hotel rooms

There are fears hotels in the state's south west could be forced to close rooms as the gas crisis pushes up costs for cleaning services. Prime Laundry, which cleans more than 80 per cent of the state's hotel linen, says it has secured enough gas to supply the company for six days.

I loved this line in the Alan Evans (NRMA) piece in the Herald Sun:

Reducing fuel excise by five cents a litre would save motorists about $2 billion a year, he said.

That's code for "... would cost the taxpayer about $2 billion a year."

And some basic arithetic: 5c a litre with petrol @ $8 a litre would be a saving of 0.625%. Brilliant.

Someone should ask him if he minds deducting the lost tax revenue from spending on roads ...

Here's a strange mix of doomer collapsism coupled with Viridian optimism and the old "back to the lander" obsession with tools, which some of you may enjoy.

Alex Steffen on "The Outquisition".

One from David Bell:

ABC - School Kitchen Garden

Jane Edmanson visits a school in suburban Melbourne where students are being taught organic gardening and then how to cook the food they grow themselves.

A document with a precis of Ted Trainer's views is http://www.life-info.de/inh1./texte/ted_trainer.html with solar thermal about half way down. If Trainer is right we're all kidding ourselves and things will only get tougher.

Following the links from 60 Minutes on the Currumbin ecovillage with its spiffy smart meters I see there is more info at http://www.smartwiredhouse.com.au/news_article.asp?news_id=54

Trainer says that some solar thermal designs don't generate as much power in winter as they do in summer - they generate perhaps 1/3 less.

Check out power consumption in Australia and you'll see summer demand is rather higher than it is in winter - reinforcing the point that CSP is a perfect fit here.

He's also unsure about the best approach for storage or the total losses, but likes the ammonia based storage scheme I wrote about a little while ago.

We'll see how Ausra's new hot water based storage design turns out, eh ?

For those unfamiliar with Trainer's point of view:

http://www.abc.net.au/rn/science/ockham/stories/s1515951.htm

And from the article you link to :

Nuclear energy cannot make a significant long term global difference in view of Uranium resources, unless breeders and fusion are employed.

I think we are in deep trouble whatever path we take; if we can slow the energy descent it gives breathing space to adapt. With nuclear's 50 year stay-of-execution a lot of things could happen such as major demographic and lifestyle shifts, breakthroughs (eg thin film solar, ultracapacitors) could slash the system-wide cost of clean energy and new forms of the nuclear fuel cycle could emerge. If that all fails we're buggered but I think the public will want to try all options along the way.

Unless...

The Holy Grail - FUSION. The big boys are getting serious...

http://www.iter.org/

ITER Members: China, the European Union, India, Japan, Korea,Russia and the United States.

“At a time when stable energy supplies and the promotion of strategies to tackle climate change are topics of global concern, the world is watching the ITER project. Implemented by seven parties that together make up half of the earth’s population, it is utilizing the wisdom of humankind to strive for a secure and stable energy supply.”

Gav,
If you look at Australia's electricity generating capacity of 49 Gwatts, coal accounts for 28 Gw NG about 12 and Hydro accounts for 8.5 Gw and most of that is in Snowy and Tas. With a modest increase in pumped storage(additional generators,and power-lines, using same storage) could expand this to cover all of the daily peak demand in Eastern Australia, allowing wind, solar and NG to replace coal base load. Solar matches the summer peak demand from 1pm to 7pm, better than wind, but together NG/hydro should be able to fill-in any low wind or high cloud events.
As WA has shown its not the end of the world if some industries are cut back for a few days( we are not talking months of no wind or no sunshine) so its really a red-herring to raise problem of renewable energy being intermittent .

The manager of the Perth industrial laundry said he wasn't happy when staff turned up not knowing if there was a full day's work. Of course some industries that say they need constant power or heat may not have tried to be flexible eg by storing one or two days worth of gas onsite.

A way that solar may follow peak load better if there was a priority system for air conditioning with central remote control. The list would go something like nursing homes, hospitals ..data centres ..shopping malls ..private houses. If gas was to used to balance wind and solar I suggest
a) it should be combined cycle only
b) a 20 year conservation plan.

In other words gas isn't automatically available for overseas sale. Marn isn't quite there yet with his thinking; he and his coal industry mates are currently having fantasies about pumping emissions under the sea.

The LNG market is becoming more flexible but not that flexible. It is still based on long term contracts, especially for you in Oz with your Japanese clients.
I think you either need to commit it to export, per contract, or commit it to Oz, i.e. dedicated Oz supply fields or just leave it in the ground until you need it. But don't wait too long as you will find it all gone -> overseas.
Or you could always bid on the spot market for your own gas - not funny I know!

I hope you are getting a good price for it and that the money is being well spent.
Don't be like the UK and left wondering where did all the benefit from North Sea Gas go? and oil for that matter.

Do you not have any big salt caverns or the like where you can store the gas?