The Bullroarer - Saturday 13 July 2008

Business Spectator - KGB INTERROGATION: Caltex CEO Des King

Robert Gottliebsen: Do you agree that the forecasts of the so called peak oil analysts are right and that outside of Iraq the Middle East can’t lift production dramatically, so there’s going to be an oil shortage for a long time?

Des King: It’s very interesting to look at some of the peak oil projections, we looked at those recently and the peak oil folks are saying, this is in a speech that we gave recently to AmCham (American Chamber of Commerce], in a most pessimistic scenario the oil production in 2030 is about the same as it is today – about 86 million barrels a day. So the oil companies believe that more production can be made available, if they get access to some of the land that is off limits right now and so some of the oil company forecasts are more like 110.

If we look at the peak oil projections, we’ll be using in 2030 by their projections the same amount of oil we use today, which does mean that as the demand for energy grows around the world we will need to find more and more alternate sources.

2SER (The Environment Show) - Is peak oil more urgent than climate change?

In this interview I speak with Bruce Robinson, Convenor of the Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil. (ASPO is a leading international group of concerned scientists on the issue.) Bruce says governments should be informing people and preparing our economies now for peak oil, the inevitable declining rate of oil production.

SMH - Oil hits record on Middle East tensions



Peak Energy - Matt Simmons In The Economist

The Economist has an article on Matt Simmons. The most surprising part (other than Matt's retreat to a doomstead in Maine) is them quoting him saying "globalisation must stop". Isn't that considered the ultimate heresy in St James ?

The Economist also recently had a special issue covering energy issues - The power and the glory - which had a look at a range of alternative energy options. Other articles in the section cover most of the way forward (ocean power, biogas and cradle to cradle manufacturing being the most notable exceptions, while "negawatts" were deliberately omitted).

The Australian - Chevron plans $20.8bn gas project

US energy giant Chevron is planning a second massive liquefied natural gas export operation off Western Australia's northwest coast. The proposed project could cost $US20billion ($20.8 billion) and compare to the massive Gorgon and Browse plans.

Chevron, which runs the Gorgon project, said yesterday it had tripled the scale of its planned Wheatstone LNG operation after discovering more gas at its Iago field, 130km offshore. The company is now looking at combining the Wheatstone field and nearby Iago into an LNG project with an initial capacity of 15 million tonnes a year, the same size as Gorgon, which analysts expect to cost as much as $US30 billion.

The Age - BG chief talks down gas price increases

BG GROUP chief executive Frank Chapman has rejected the prospect of large rises in the price of gas in eastern Australia while launching his company's $13.7 billion bid for Origin Energy, which has yet to attract widespread support. After the release of BG's Bidder's Statement, Mr Chapman said the abundance of gas resources in eastern Australia, with some estimates of 250 trillion cubic feet of potential resources, meant the domestic market would be fully supplied at a low price.

"The notion LNG pricing will net back into domestic pricing is economically not rational in my view," he said, contradicting assumptions in the Garnaut review on carbon trading released last week. On the spot market, LNG is selling for about five times the price of domestic gas in eastern Australia, making it an attractive market for coal seam gas producers.

Business Spectator - AGL invests $37m in Coal Seam Gas project

Gas and electricity supplier AGL Energy Limited has invested $37 million in a coal seam gas production pilot and exploration and appraisal program with Beaconsfield Energy Development and Capricorn Energy, in Queensland’s Galilee Basin.

SMH - A gas for investors

Coal-seam gas is the sexy new energy source, despite the fact that its conversion into LNG has not been commercially tested. Meanwhile shareholders in companies with coal-seam gas reserves like Santos and Origin are in clover. Whether Origin secures a juicy joint-venture deal or accepts a sweetened offer by BG, they will receive a return on their investment that they would not have dreamt of six months ago.

SMH - Greed and bad management pay no heed

In these straitened times of dying rivers and global warming you should know how little you're getting for your money, and not only at the bowser. A week ago Kevin Rudd issued a "communique" on behalf of the nine federal, state and territory Labor leaders who govern Australia, agreeing to establish "new governance" of the critical Murray-Darling Basin and its decrepit, degraded river system. Along with $3.7 billion "in principle" for "significant water projects, subject to "due diligence" over the next five years, Rudd also pledged a new "independent, expert" commission.

Goodbye Craik and Sinclair, presumably, in time. Goodbye National Party control of the Murray-Darling.

Two days ago Craik, undaunted, called a press conference to announce the latest state of the "drought" in the Murray-Darling Basin, with its 1.9 million people and its combined catchments in three states of 1 million square kilometres covering one-seventh of the Australian land mass. Her "grim news" - the drought is "getting worse" and June inflows to the river system were "the worst on record". The months ahead look no better.

SMH - Grim outlook for Murray Darling basin as water flows at all-time low

The Australian - Ziffs ready to talk turkey on oil shale

ZIFF Brothers Investments will decide by the end of the year whether to apply for approvals for a multi-billion-dollar oil shale development in Queensland, its Australian unit says.

The Australian - Coal fuels Wesfarmers' hope but Coles turnaround way off

Crikey - Peak Oil Schmoil. Why is no-one talking about Peak Coal?

With Peak Oil on the agenda of the G8, it is easy to miss the other story about the end of fossil fuels: Peak Coal. According to an under-reported German study from last year, global coal production can only grow by about 30% before it peaks and begins to run out, some time around 2025.

Crikey - Nearer my ETS to thee. In your prayers, Kevin.

So between Brendan Nelson and the Greens and India and China at the G8 rejecting taking any action until developed countries get their act together, things don’t look too flash on the climate change front. Perhaps we should adopt the position of right-wing economist Henry Ergas, who reckons reckons that given no one else is doing anything about carbon emissions, the only logical response for Australia is to get as rich as possible in order to better adapt to climate change. You certainly can’t fault Henry’s logic -- there’s something very rigorous about solving the "prisoner’s dilemma" of climate change by burning the gaol down.

All of which leaves ... Malcolm Turnbull, who may be the only hope of getting an emissions trading scheme up at all by 2012. Turnbull as shadow Treasurer has looked at his best when he hasn’t needed to defend the legacy of the Howard Government. On emissions trading, however, he’s defending that legacy, in a space opened up by Brendan Nelson’s reflexive shifting to the Right.

Crikey - Rudd goes missing on international climate policy

Australia was rated equal last among developed countries in a recently published Climate Cooperation Index that compared the cooperative behaviour of countries within the international climate change regime between 1990 and 2005. The Rudd Government has had more than six months to develop its international climate policy, so what has changed?

SMH - Greens to lead on climate change: Brown

Addressing the Australian Greens national Council meeting in Hobart, Senator Brown said Prime Minister Kevin Rudd will have failed to show mature leadership if Labor sets weak targets for emissions cuts or if it delayed implementation of an emissions trading scheme to 2012. He said the Greens wanted a 40 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions below 1990 levels by 2020 and a carbon neutral Australia, or at least 90 per cent reduction, by 2050.

As well, the Greens want massive funding for fast, reliable and cheap public transport in metropolitan and regional Australia. ... The Greens are also calling for feed-in laws, paying a premium to those who feed solar or other renewable energy back into the electricity grid.

SMH - Activists charged over coal protest

Three Sydney-based Greenpeace activists protesting against coal-fired power have been charged by police after spending a cold 34 hours atop a 140m high smokestack west of Brisbane. ... The campaigners were arguing the power station was a major greenhouse polluter and that Queensland urgently needed to cut greenhouse gas emissions by going solar.

Peak Energy - Colourful Concentrators: Organic Solar

Technology Review has an article on advanced organic dyes that more efficiently concentrate sunlight, which MIT researchers believe will reduce the cost of producing solar power - A Better Solar Collector.

ABC - Govts urged to boost public transport, not build more roads

Public transport advocates say a recent CSIRO report predicting $8-a-litre petrol prices by 2018 has sent a clear message that Australia must follow Europe's lead and invest in first-class public transport systems.

Dr Paul Mees, a senior transport planning lecturer at RMIT University in Melbourne, believes that the prediction should send a warning to Australian governments. "Particularly to state and federal governments that are currently proposing to spend billions of dollars on new freeways and toll ways," he said. "It's not immediately obvious how people are going to be able to afford the fuel for cars to drive on those roads."

Dr Mees says Western Australia has the only Government that is doing a good job investing in public transport., having just doubled the size of the Perth rail network and announcing another five rail lines, including a link to the airport. He says he believes the other states are influenced too strongly by road lobby groups and public-private partnerships.

frogblog - Fuel for thought - the future of transport fuels: challenges and opportunities

Energy Bulletin - Australia report on future of transport fuels

Car Central - Hyundai’s pioneering LPG-hybrid Elantra in contention for Australia

The carmaker has confirmed the hybrid car, which is based on the current Elantra, will go on sale in July of next year, initially in South Korea. It is still investigating what other markets to launch the hybrid vehicle in, but Australia is one of the top contenders due to our extensive LPG infrastructure.

AAP - Uranium contaminates water supply

FRENCH authorities have ordered the temporary closure of a nuclear treatment plant in a popular tourist region of southern France after a uranium leak polluted the local water supply. Site operator Socatri, a subsidiary of French nuclear giant Areva, was ordered to suspend all activities at the Tricastin treatment facility in the Vaucluse region and beef up safety at the plant, according to a statement from the ASN safety authority.

Local residents have been told not to drink water or eat fish from nearby rivers since the leak on Monday night, in which 75kg of untreated liquid uranium spilled into the ground. Swimming and water sports were also forbidden as was irrigation of crops with the contaminated water.

Peak Energy - Seabreacher

DVice has a post on a device which, from a practical point of view, seems to be entirely useless - but is probably a lot of fun if you are happy to waste some fuel - the Seabreacher submarine, which is an interesting example of biomimicry.

Peak Energy - A Surplus Of Clean Energy

Peak Energy - The Most Efficient Power Plants

Maybe there will be peak coal seam methane with a logistic maximum and decline. So maybe not all of that 250 tcf (some 5000 megatonnes) will be easy to extract. You'd think someone in Canberra would have a plan for managing it. I assume CSM will need some cleanup to remove CO2, H2S, N2 and other undesirable components before CSM-LNG is interchangeable with NG-LNG. Gas separation should continue to produce LPG (propane-butane) long after oil refineries have all closed, though I believe there is a way of making propane from biomass.

Nonetheless you'd think Hyundai could do a CNG version of the Elantra with a stronger tank and perhaps a tuned up engine. There is also a Honda Civic NGV (natural gas vehicle).

Of course one form of co-gen that makes use of waste heat is locating a desalination plant next to a nuclear reactor. The external water loop can prewarm the seawater which I believe assists reverse osmosis. This could help er I dunno when you have carbon caps and your main river has dried up.

If you don't mind the occasional dose of uranium or plutonium in your drinking water that's a great idea.

After you've convinced Hydro to try it out in Tassie first let us know how it goes.

If that's the worst kind of nuclear industry related accident the French can get it's not too bad though still unacceptable. Many places have small amounts of uranium in their drinking water, for example Adelaide's Myponga Dam.

Another 'sleeper' that has arisen recently is mercury in CFL bulbs. Next must be the plutonium derivative americium in most smoke alarms. Trashed CFL bulbs and smoke alarms go into landfills, rain falls, landfill leaks. Nobody worries.

As you know, what's important is not the total amount but the local concentration. There's a difference between consuming (say) 10g of arsenic over 50 years of life, and even 5g of arsenic over two days. One won't cause any problems, the other might kill you.

Unfortunately typical sloppy journalism isn't telling us much about this French accident. "75kg of liquid uranium"? I don't think so, there would have been a tremendous explosion of steam had 75kg of molten uranium metal struck water. 75kg of uranium hexafluoride? 75kg of water with some depleted uranium mixed in at 1ppm? 75kg of... Well, we don't know, they didn't tell us. So we can't really judge the level of danger we're talking about.

People certainly do worry about mercury in CFL. In fact, it's commonly an excuse for sticking with incandescents.

I don't about your smoke alarm, but mine is full of warnings not to bin it normally. And my local council has an annual toxic rubbish day, where they take solvents, old batteries, smoke alarms and so on.

Boof, if you ever feel like a holiday on the mainland, this could be right up your alley...

Until the 1930's Daylesford and Hepburn Springs flourished. The local authorities boasted that their naturally radioactive mineral water could work miracles. Among other things it could restore youth, help jaded appetites, was a tonic for the blood and dispelled acute pain...

Everybody went for their health, for the annual family holiday and above all for their honeymoon...

That's the controversial hormesis theory which among other things suggests residents of Colorado are healthier than those of Florida due to higher background radiation. Or maybe for completely unrelated reasons. However ingestion of unsafe material such as dust or water must be of greater concern.

I see there is more cornucopian trash in the MSM about shale oil.
Big Gav,how about getting somebody knowledgeable to do an article on this.In my opinion the whole process,from go to woe,is an abomination.
Re the Hyundai LNG-hybrid article - this states that Australia has an extensive LNG network.
This may be true to some extent with pipelines but using LNG as a transport fuel requires a large network of refill stations and I haven't seen much evidence of that unless LPG facilities can be converted.Is that possible?
Thanks for doing the hard yards in getting The Bullroarer online although it doesn't seem to be attracting many comments at this stage.It is a valuable resource.

I see Honda's home refuelling system takes 16 hours to fill the tank
http://automobiles.honda.com/civic-gx/refueling.aspx
Not cheap I believe.

An advantage to sticking with methane-dominant gas is switching between CSM, LNG, NG, biogas and some forms of syngas.

On 'special' disposal methods I bought something from Australia Post and at the same time handed in several printer cartridges for disposal as per a prominent sign. I got the 'are you for real?' stare.

I've done 2 posts on shale oil in the past (though I don't claim to be an expert). In the absence of any large scale production anywhere I can't think that there is much more to be said.

http://peakenergy.blogspot.com/2005/08/question-of-shale.html
http://peakenergy.blogspot.com/2007/12/queensland-shale-oil-billions-in....

Re the Hyundai, you are misreading LNG - it is LPG, not LNG. LPG is a liquid byproduct of gas production - its not that difficult to distribute, and you can already find it at many petrol stations. Lots of taxis use it.

No worries about the Bullroarer - its educational filtering the news regularly to see what is being reported (and thanks to Phil and aeldric for sharing the load).

Comments (and links to other articles you find) are always welcome but I don't judge the value of posts by how many comments they get.

Its sitemeter that really tells the tale of whether or not people find the content here useful or interesting :-)

A bit of interesting anti-cornucopian news. Today's "Inside Business" program on the ABC focussed on greenhouse issues for the second week running. They ran a major piece on carbon sequestration (video of men in white coats, complex laboratory piping, dripping liquids, diagrams of empty gas reservoirs, Marn announcing "we muss sucseed with this" etc...).

"Ho-hum," I thought, more coal industry wishful thinking... UNTIL some talking head from Exxon Mobil pops up who really made my jaw drop. This guy sounds like he is very familiar with the North Sea CO2 injection currently used to boost well productivity, and he stated outright that Exxon DO NOT want any CO2 injected into Bass Strait until they are finished their extraction programme in about 2025!

The reason is that the injected CO2 cannot be kept from bubbling up and would "sour" the remaining gas and oil being produced.
Say what? I thought this was Victoria's (and Marn's) great hope for a graveyard for Brown Coal emissions!

The same Exxon guy then made a lot of discouraging noises about the feasibility of piping liquid CO2 anywhere much (he said the problem was extreme corrosiveness), especially into the middle of the desert at Moomba. This input set the whole piece on a very depressing trajectory, and Alan Kohler and his reporter both sounded highly sceptical about geosequestration at the end. Ouch!

The transcript should be up on Tuesday. http://www.abc.net.au/insidebusiness/

BHP and Exxon have been pretty firm about not wanting the Monash Energy project and others to inject CO2 into their Bass Strait gas fields for some time.

I talked about this in my CTL post a while back.

http://anz.theoildrum.com/node/3817

One of the reasons why the Gorgon LNG project is so expensive (and so frequently delayed) is the high percentage of CO2 in the gas - which is why they need to go to a lot of expense to separate it out, then inject it into saline aquifers under Barrow Island - and to convince everyone else that this will work.

The problem of CO2 being corrosive is well known, and why reason why there aren't many geosequestration projects that are used for enhanced oil recovery around.

Running 'dry' CO2 gas in a pipeline to anywhere is not the corrosion problem. Without water it is effectively inert (I think!).

It's when you pump it into an oil/gas field which inevitably contains some water that the problems begin. From the wells through most of the surface process facilities, the combination of water and CO2 produces an acidic environment. Unless the facilities were designed for high CO2 from the start (eg if the oil field already contained high levels naturally) then it's prohibitively expensive to change - you're really talking about drilling new wells and building new process trains from scratch.

Yes, that's right.

CO2 by itself is inert with respect to metals. When water gets in, it reacts and forms H2CO3, carbonic acid. This is of course corrosive.

Of course the whole idea is preposterous. Vaclav Smil makes the useful comparison - to process and sequester even 10% of annual emissions would require infrastructure bigger than we have for the entire world's oil industry. 10% of our emissions of 49Gt is 4.9Gt, and we use 4.3Gt of oil annually. Which effort leaves us with 90% of our emissions to deal with, and assuming business as usual would be overcome in two years by normal annual emissions rises.

Consider the costs and efforts involved in the entire world's oil infrastructure - just for a 10% reduction. I'm sure we could get considerably more than a 10% reduction by the same investment in conservation and renewables.

So, tell me, the reason the Rudd govt is spending so many millions of our taxpayer dollars on CO2 geosequestration experiments is...?

Because saying "geosequestration" makes thems sound like they have the problem under control. It's better than Tim Flannerys idea of "atmosulpherication" (think up a sexier sounding term and post here) to effectively shade the planet from nasty sunlight. I think the Chinese are experimenting with that in Beijing at the moment and it would be interesting to see what the ground temperature difference is in polluted Beijing vs clear sky Beijing. If they get it cleared up for the Olympics, we should all take very close note of teh temperatures and compare them to previous and future years.

It's a subsidy for the coal and gas industries. It allows them to be appear to be doing something while not doing anything at all, and allows us the public to feel something is being done which will not inconvenience us in any way whatsoever. Warm fuzzies.

If you're going to say that "they're spending money on it, so it must be a good idea", then you have to agree that CEOs really do deserve salaries in the tens of millions, that highways really do cost a year's wages a metre to build and are worth it, that Saddam had WMD, that a guy lending a mobile phone sim card to his rather amateurish terrorist cousin was worth spending more on than the cost of an MRI machine, that submarines which don't work and are in drydock half the time really are worth a couple of billion each, and so on.

Just because money is being spent on it doesn't mean it's a good idea.