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The Bullroarer - Friday 13th November 2009

Posted by aeldric on November 12, 2009 - 5:51pm in The Oil Drum: Australia/New Zealand

The Age - Global oil supply 'far worse than admitted'

THE world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, says a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying.

The senior official claims the United States has played an influential role in encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate of decline from existing oilfields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves.

Scoop.co.nz - International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook

It is now clear that an unchanged energy policy - the IEA’s ‘business as usual’ scenario - will lead to catastrophic climate impacts and a temperature rise of about 6°C. While the IEA’s rhetoric on climate change improves every year, it still offers no solution. The proposed energy mix in the IEA’s ‘climate scenario’ - the 450ppm scenario - continues to rely on unproven technology, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) for coal-fired power stations, and nuclear power.

Stuff.co.nz - Carbon recycling a money-making chance

A new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that growing energy demands from emerging giants like China and India, coupled with a lack of cost-effective alternatives to fossil fuels, means that 77 per cent of the world's power will still be derived from fossil fuels by 2050.

Scoop.co.nz - Superfund bets against International Energy Agency

Dr Norman was responding to news today that the New Zealand Superannuation Fund plans to invest in Shell New Zealand’s investments: a 17 per cent stake in the New Zealand Refining Company, holdings in Fly Buys, Shell's supply and distribution infrastructure, and its 229 petrol stations.

The International Energy Agency has predicted that global oil prices will start to spiral within ten years.

“Retailing petrol is not going to be a profitable business in 2020 as people leave their cars in their garages,” said Dr Norman.

The Land - Experts worry over peak soil

YOU’VE heard of “peak oil”, but what about “peak phosphate”, or even worse “peak soil”?
The latter two were among alarming prospects raised by speakers at the third annual Carbon Farming conference in Orange last week.

“Peak oil” refers to the time, considered to be imminent if not already here, when the maximum rate of global oil extraction is reached, after which production would enter terminal decline, leading to increasing oil shortages and steadily rising prices.

One conference speaker suggested availability of phosphate to make fertilisers was facing a similar crisis, another that the world could run out of usable soil within about 60 years.

The possibility of “peak soil” was raised by Professor John Crawford, of the University of Sydney’s Institute of Sustainable Solutions, who said Europe was losing soil at the rate of 17 tonnes a hectare, and in China soil was being lost at 57 times the rate at which it could be replaced.

The Westender - CALL FOR FEED-IN TARIFF

The International Energy Agency’s call for Australia to take on a bigger role in developing solar energy technology proves we are not doing enough to exploit this abundant source of renewable energy, according to Modern Solar Managing Director Ron Bayley.

The agency's chief economist, Fatih Birol, said in Paris recently that Australia’s location and past experience with solar power meant it could play a leading role in its development as an alternative energy source to oil and nuclear power.

NZ Herald - Middle classes 'fuel rise in thefts'

Desperate mothers and white-collar professionals wanting to keep up appearances have emerged as the recession's big shoplifters in New Zealand and Australia, a survey shows.

The Age - Old king coal

The single biggest contributor to global warming is also one of Australia's biggest money earners. So can Australia wean itself off coal? And what would the implications be if it did?

The Age - Efficiency the key to car culture

Notwithstanding pressing concerns about climate change, peak oil and the consequent need to invest in more sustainable modes of transport, cars are likely to be the major transport mode in Melbourne for many years to come.

The Age - "Clean coal will work:" IEA boss

Nobuo Tanaka, the executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), gave an upbeat assessment of the prospects for new technologies to make coal more climate-friendly.

He said Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) - which captures the carbon emissions from burning coal and buries those emissions underground - was "advancing".

NZ Herald - Greens claim lack of consultation sparked energy policy row

There are differences of opinion over what led the Greens to cancel part of their memorandum of understanding with National on energy efficiency policy.

Aukland Stuff.co.nz - Have a say on transport strategy

Residents on the North Shore can now have a say on the $47 billion Auckland transport programme.

The Auckland Regional Transport Committee is seeking public feedback on the draft regional land transport strategy for the next 30 years.

Stuff.co.nz - Effort to gauge coal gas resource

Drilling has begun to try to tap huge coal seam gas reserves thought to lie deep underground on the West Coast.

The exploratory drilling began at Dobson, near Greymouth, on October 30 to investigate the commercial potential of gas in the Brunner and Paparoa coal seams.

3News - Antarctic ice melting much faster than thought

Next month world leaders will meet to confront climate change in Copenhagen and they in turn will be confronted with new evidence about how urgently they need to act.

The Australian - Caltex looking at LNG production

OIL refiner Caltex has become a surprise potential exporter of Queensland's vast coal seam gas reserves, with new chief executive Julian Segal flagging a $500 million Brisbane liquefied natural gas plant as part of the company's potential growth plans.

News.com.au - Rudd to attend UN climate conference

PRIME Minister Kevin Rudd confirmed yesterday he would travel to Copenhagen in December for the United Nations conference on climate change.

NineMSN - Asian rebound sparks revival in oil demand

Global oil demand has started to grow after falling for a year-and-a-half, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday, in a sign that Asia's economic revival is boosting commodities consumption.

The Bullroarer - Friday 13th November 2009

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5 comments

Cretaceous on November 13, 2009 - 10:12am Permalink | Comments top

This is an excellent round-up of articles Aeldric.

It's a sad irony that the first article casts doubts on the credibility of the IEA, and further down the page the IEA endorses "Clean Coal"...
;-)

thirra on November 13, 2009 - 6:35pm Permalink | Parent | Comments top

I have been getting the impression that the IEA has had little credibility for some time outside of the cornucopian sector which probably accounts for most of government at least.

The "Age" article on the Australian coal industry is good within the limits of the MSM.Naturally the industry's vested interests will fight tooth and nail against any restrictions on their activities.

This is basicly a political problem as it is only government action which will reduce and eventually eliminate coal from electricity generation in Australia.The export of steaming coal could well be tackled by a hefty tax per ton.This should be mandatorily devoted to building nonpolluting energy production in Australia.Coking coal could be left exempt from this tax as long as it was used exclusively for steel production.

The reduction of export income from coal is a problem but only if we continue on our insane path of overconsumption and the globalization madness of exporting manufacturing overseas to the likes of China.

To get political change we have to get a massive change in the mindset of the majority of Australians.There have been a couple of developments in the last few days which are just a little bit encouraging.I was surprised when Peter Garrett knocked back the Traveston Dam on the Mary River in SE QLD.I had written Garrett off as being a mere tool of the Labor machine.The recent report on the impact of sea level rise on Australia is long overdue even if it probably understates the effects.This effect of global warming has been obvious to Blind Freddie for years.I'm sure the deniers will now have a new reason to keep foaming at the mouth but it may be a wake up call to some of the more thoughtful sheeple.

aeldric on November 13, 2009 - 6:55pm Permalink | Parent | Comments top

The story that the IEA is under pressure to understate the severity of the situation seems to come from multiple different sources in multiple countries.

I am a consultant myself. I have certainly been asked to write things that I knew weren't going to happen. As a consultant, you need to cover your butt, so that when it doesn't happen you have an out, so you write the report to say something like this:

1. Here is the desired outcome, but there are huge "challenges" ahead in achieving this
2. Here are the challenges (which appear serious, but you use phrases like "must be overcome" to make it sound like there is a chance they can be overcome)
3. To overcome these challenges you will need to do the following things -
4. Here is a list of things, several of which are impossible
5. Here are some unlikely looking graphs that just drive home the message that the solutions listed are simply not plausible

When it doesn't happen you can simply point out that the client did not implement your proposed solution.

The IEA report seems to follow the pattern above.

thirra on November 14, 2009 - 4:35pm Permalink | Parent | Comments top

Thanks for that,aeldric,quite amusing but not surprising.I hope you are being paid mega dollars for your consulting so that you can opt out of the rat race in the near future.

fingolfin on November 14, 2009 - 11:21pm Permalink | Comments top

An Achievable Agreement
-----------------------
Everyone seems to be talking down the chances of a meaningful Climate Change agreement at Copenhagen, including Penny Wong, so I have come up with a protocol for Penny to present which every country would surely sign up to thus enabling the Boy Wonder and all of Oz to bask in her reflected glory.
It goes something like this:

" We the undersigned Climate Change minsters of every country do hereby solemnly declare that we believe dealing with the issue of Climate Change to be the most pressing concern which the World faces and that we should and will do everything in our powers to minimize Global Warming.

This is an absolute and unconditional guarantee to which we all will dedicate ourselves and our countries.

We shall not shrink from this task in any way as long as the measures which we need to take are popular with our voters and do not adversely effect economic growth in our respective countries or cause the perception that any one country is getting a better deal out of this than our country.

And as long as no-one blames us for losing their job as a result of this agreement.
And as long as we can all continue to grow our economies, drive more cars, consume more energy, fly more planes, double the world's population in the next 10 years, burn more coal, destroy more forests and all get more numerous, fatter and lazier together.

Because words are more important than actions, the signing of this memorandum on its own should be sufficient to solve the problem of Global Warming."

Ministers to sign here: X

The Bullroarer - Friday 13th November 2009

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5 comments