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The Bullroarer - Saturday 24th October 2009
Posted by aeldric on October 23, 2009 - 6:21pm in The Oil Drum: Australia/New Zealand
Stuff.co.nz - NZ, Aust urged to join Asean green deal
Southeast Asian leaders are urging New Zealand and Australia to make deeper cuts in carbon emissions as part of a "Green New Deal" covering the region.
Brisbane Times - Piecemeal approach will kill the response to climate change
Meanwhile, the coalminers have figured in large advertisements placed by the mining lobbyist the Australian Coal Association. Its point, as expressed in those advertisements, was that the Rudd Government's carbon pollution reduction scheme would threaten jobs in the coal industry. On the North Coast of NSW it is homes; in the coalfields of Queensland and NSW it is jobs; all across the country other aspects of life are being transformed utterly by climate change. Rural Victoria is questioning the settlement and bushfire management policies that contributed to loss of life during last summer's fires. Towns in western NSW are contemplating life without water as dams lie empty with summer approaching. Many other similar processes are going on elsewhere. Climate change is the thread that runs through them all. Most aspects of modern life will be affected by it and by the national response to it. And as changes become apparent, different interest groups are emerging, each arguing their own case with little reference to the wider problem.
The Northern Missing Link project would link the Goonyella coal rail system with the Newlands system, allowing for more coal to reach the upgraded Abbot Point terminal near Bowen.
The Australian - New hope for viable clean coal projects
Long-time readers will know that I am cynical, but it seems that there are a lot of people with good credentials who think that this will work.
AN unpublished government study has raised hopes that Australia will be able to develop commercially viable clean coal projects because prospective underground storage sites are close to power generation plants.
The Age - Joyce warns of bigger GFC
This story nicely encapsulates why I think conspiracy theories are not necessary: Responsible individuals self-censor and censor each other. They do this not because of some secret plan, but simply out of a sense of responsibility (possibly misplaced, but genuine).
THE Nationals Senate leader Barnaby Joyce is openly canvassing an economic upheaval that would dwarf the current global financial crisis, triggered by the US defaulting on its sovereign debt within the next few years.
[.....]
In a Senate estimates hearing on Wednesday night, he asked Treasury secretary Ken Henry what would be the implications of an American debt default for the Australian economy.
Dr Henry warned that canvassing extreme scenarios could alarm the community.
"I don't mind discussing hypotheticals in general … [but] one has to be careful not to discuss publicly hypotheticals that are that extreme," Dr Henry said.
NZ Herald - Engineer sees climate change as challenge
So climate change is just another challenge for an engineer. "We were running out of things to be inventive about before these issues came along."
The Auklander - Change for good works for staff
This is not strictly speaking an energy story, however I personally decided some time back that if we have tough times coming, I need to tidy up my act.
Ned Matautia quit smoking this year. He has also lost 25kg since he started exercising and has cut most of the grease from his diet.
Top News NZ - Fuel Poverty in England Continues to Rise - Department of Energy and Climate Change
Recent figures released by the Department of Energy and Climate Change show that as many as 4.6 million English households could face fuel poverty in 2009. In wake of the situation, the Government has promised that the issue will be completely under control by 2016.
ABC - Hopes of fourth time lucky at leaking oil well
Hopes are high that the fourth attempt to plug a leaking oil well in the Timor Sea will be a success.
Brisbane Times - More homes needed to boost economy: Swan
More houses are needed to help boost economic recovery and to create a lasting legacy of affordable homes, Treasurer Wayne Swan says.
Speaking after meeting state and territory treasurers in Canberra on Friday, Mr Swan said Australia wasn't building enough houses in terms of population growth.
The Australian - Now climate change denial is a psychological condition
A round-up of some CC news, including psychological causes of CC denial:
THE most prominent form of denial is displayed by climate sceptics who reject all or most of the main propositions established by climate science. It seems for many such individuals acceptance of climate science and the response it calls for conflict with their fundamental beliefs, namely that it is natural for humans to exploit the Earth's resources, that economic growth should not be disrupted (and) that governments should not intervene in the marketplace.
For such sceptics the idea of human-induced global warming can give rise to cognitive dissonance, the uncomfortable feeling people have when they begin to understand that something they believe to be true is contradicted by evidence. Rejection of the scientific claims resolves the dissonance and thus removes the unpleasant feeling.
SMH - If human numbers boom, resistance will be futile
With our unprecedented and growing human population we have brought the natural environment to the brink of collapse. We search for life on other planets while we decimate complex species here. We are wealthier now than ever, but less happy and less optimistic.
Or, for the opposing view:
The Australian - Populate and prosper
KEVIN Rudd's vision for "a big Australia" is one we fully endorse. Australia stands to reap significant benefits from a substantial population increase in coming decades. We agree wholeheartedly with the Prime Minister that a population of 35 million by 2050, envisaged by Treasury projections, would be good for our national security and development.
WA Today - Fuel throttle: Tokyo motor show
Despite Mitsubishi and Nissan saying regular household powerpoints could meet most EV recharging needs, Yamanouchi says electric cars would only become popular if governments and buyers were prepared to “foot the bill” for expensive infrastructure and sophisticated technology.
National Business Review NZ - Contact Energy has OIO approval for farm purchase
Contact Energy has Overseas Investment Office (OIO) approval to purchase a farm in the Franklin district where pylons are proposed as part of the company’s planned Port Waikato windfarm.
Stuff.co.nz - Future too uncertain for earnings guidance: Contact Energy
Contact Energy is giving shareholders no guidance about earnings in the year ahead, with chairman Grant King warning that dividends will only be retained at current levels if profitability returns to "more normal levels".
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I'm not that impressed by the Treasury Secretary's failure to answer the question of what would happen to Australia if the US were to default.
I know there's an idea that "confidence" is important in the economy, so leading figures should say nice things only, however I think it's bollocks.
The mind is important in the success of things. That's why athletes set world records at competitions and not in training, and why sick people who are near 100 die shortly after their 100th birthday.
That is, attitude can contribute to success or failure. However, it can only make a difference to something that was on the edge already. If you can run 100m in 9.98 seconds, being in competition might make it 9.91 seconds. But no amount of positive attitude will turn my 13.50 second run into a 9.91 second run.
Likewise, if I am injured in a battle or crime and bleeding out, if I decide I have nothing to live for, I will probably die on the spot. But if I am uninjured, I am not going to spontaneously have an arterial bleed just because I'm feeling sad.
Thus, "confidence" and public figures making statements can only make a difference if the economy is on the edge of ruin anyway. In the 1990s with the US economy booming and the budget in surplus, the Treasury Secretary would have been quite happy to answer the hypothetical. It was so far from being possible then that talking about it was just science fiction. "What if the Moon really was made of green cheese?" "Well..." But now?
So I say that he was lying. He did not refuse to answer the question because it seemed so impossible, but because it seems very possible indeed, but the consequences unthinkable, unthinkable in the sense that we'd rather not think about them.
As well, government departments are in the business of having contingency plans for unlikely but serious events, like earthquakes, invasions and tsunamis. They're very unlikely to happen but their consequences are so severe that if they do we're in trouble, so we plan for them anyway. His refusal to answer suggests to me that Treasury has not considered what would happen if the US were to default on its debts. They have no contingency plans.
Thus, his refusal to answer the question makes me more afraid than any answer could have.
He didn't say he wouldn't answer, he said he wouldn't answer publicly. Which gives extra credit to your other comments:
Yup.
And presumably Joyce is not an idiot - he expected some form of non-answer. He knows that the answer has to be a non-answer, so he is setting a trap. He just wants to get the non-answer on record so that he can crucify them with it later. Which suggests that he thinks this scenario might happen - no certainty but it could.
Why would the US default instead of just paying off its creditors with printed money. Which is what it is doing now. The Fed (which prints money) has purchased $1.25trillion of debt from US agencies and $300billion treasuries. This is QE, quantitative easing. They may plan to sell that stuff back onto the market when prosperity returns, to mop up the money they created, but TOD folk don't tend to expect that to ever happen. Indeed the reverse will happen and the US will be forced to print to pay its debts and unfunded obligations. It's a sort of default, but not the sort of thing that happens to countries that borrow in some other country's currency. Let's just call it the great debt jubilee.