The Bullroarer - Friday 30th May 2008

SMH - Oil price threat to Qantas profit

Qantas record run of bumper profits could quickly turn into a $1 billion full-year loss if oil prices hit US$200 a barrel, a broker has warned.

JPMorgan has estimated the airline could post a $982 million pre-tax and interest (EBIT) loss next financial year if oil prices hit US$200 a barrel. The note will doubt add weight to Qantas chief executive Geoff Dixon's arguments that he has no choice but to step up the airline's cost cutting efforts, which is expected to involve a head on clash with the union movement.


ABC - Indonesia's poor crippled by soaring fuel prices

Millions of Indonesians are struggling to get by on less than $2 a day as fuel prices soar. Earlier this week the Indonesian Government announced that petrol prices would have to rise by around 30 per cent.

The price rise will have a huge impact on the many Indonesians who rely on motorised transport to make a living. In one east Jakarta boarding house dozens of drivers and their families live together, renting both the roof over their heads and the vehicles that they drive. "We used to make $2.50 a day, but now we sometimes don't even make enough to pay for the bajajs (three-wheeled taxi)," says one driver.

NZ Herald - Nuclear power popular again as energy prices soar

Slammed by the surging cost of energy imported from volatile regions and befuddled about how to meet their pledges for tackling global warming, European countries are reviving nuclear's role in their energy strategies.

Scoop.co.nz - Smaller and Smarter Wind Energy

[.....]
Mr Henderson's presentation showed that large energy projects such as the 360 megawatt Taranaki Combined Cycle plant caused electricity prices to drop initially, then long gaps between new large lumps of generation caused a "feast and famine" cycle which cause price instability.

This lumpy investment problem is being repeated in the wind industry based on a false economic argument for “bigger is better”. This is a myth, he said, with smaller turbines actually being cheaper than larger turbines on an installed megawatt basis.

Adelaide Now - Peak oil protest in the city

PEAK-HOUR traffic was faced with the looming reality of "peak oil" this morning.

About 15 concerned demonstrators marched at the intersection of King William St and North Tce between 8am and 9am to raise awareness that petrol will eventually run out.

ABC - Fuel theft warning for farmers

Farmers are being told to watch out for fuel thieves, with recent price rises leading to a jump in crime.

Queensland Police say there is now a greater temptation to steal fuel because it's so expensive, especially in rural and remote areas.

Scoop.co.nz - Toll NZ’s Environment Day Transport Initiative

Statistics Minister and Otaki MP Darren Hughes has today congratulated Toll NZ Ltd for the positive initiatives it has adopted for World Environment Day to encourage more people to use public transport on behalf of the Environment Minister Trevor Mallard.

As part of the World Environment Day celebrations, Toll NZ Ltd will be branding 10 per cent of their electric fleet with an environmental image and message, and will also have discounted off-peak fares on 5 June – World Environment Day.

Stuff.co.nz - Blackouts 'likely without savings'

Blackouts are "very possible" in the North Island and probable in the South Island if huge power savings are not made now, according to a business group.

With a winter power shortage looming, storage is down to 56 per cent of average, the worst since the 1992 power crisis.

SMH - Tui oil field reserves estimates raised

New Zealand Oil and Gas was hosing down expectations after a report by The Australian that reserves in the Tui oilfield would be raised again next month.

The newspaper's website reported on Friday that the oilfield's operator, Australian Worldwide Exploration (AWE), was gearing up to boost reserves at the Taranaki field to over 50 million barrels.

ABC - 'Commuters stranded' in transport surge

The New South Wales Opposition says the State Government has failed to prepare for an increase in the use of public transport due to rising fuel costs.

Patronage on some train lines, including Sydney's western line, has increased by 6 per cent in the last year - double the projected growth.

Opposition transport spokeswoman Gladys Berejiklian says a shortage of services has left commuters stranded at rail platforms and bus stops.

Scoop.co.nz - Govt funding for Kaipara harbour tidal energy

Govt funding for Kaipara harbour tidal energy devices

A project to generate electricity from the tides in Kaipara Harbour is to receive a grant of $1.85 million from the Marine Energy Deployment Fund.

Energy Minister David Parker announced the grant to Crest Energy Ltd in a speech to the Aotearoa Wave and Tidal Energy Association, AWATEA, today.

SMH - Renewable energy just got hotter

The world is watching a hot rocks plant with massive potential in South Australia. It is clean, renewable and quiet, writes Phil Cornford.

By the end of the year, the diesel-fuelled generators in Innamincka will fall silent when Australia's first power plant fuelled by hot rocks, four kilometres below the Earth's surface, supplies electricity to the sun-scorched Cooper Basin outpost 1100 kilometres north-west of Adelaide.

ABC - Air New Zealand to trial new bio-fuel

Air New Zealand will trial a new bio-fuel later this year, because of the soaring global cost of fuel.

The airline says it aims to convert at least part of its domestic fleet to bio-fuel use, within five years.

Air New Zealand's research to date shows the greener fuel source, costs half the price of normal airline fuel and produces only 50 percent of the environmental emissions.

Have you ever wondered what the headline would look like when the newspapers announced Peak Oil? Here it is. "Peak Oil Lite" in a Nutshell:
News.com.au - Oil exporters unable to match demand

THE world's top oil producers are proving unable to put more barrels on thirsty world markets despite sky-high prices, a shift that defies traditional market logic and looks set to continue.

Fresh data from the US Department of Energy shows the amount of petroleum products shipped by the world's top oil exporters fell 2.5 per cent last year, despite a 57 per cent increase in prices, a trend that appears to be holding true this year as well.

There are several reasons behind the net export decline. Soaring profits from high-price crude have fuelled a boom in oil demand in Saudi Arabia and across the Middle East, leaving less oil for export. At the same time, ageing fields and sluggish investments have caused exports to drop significantly in Mexico, Norway and Russia.

The Age - What am I bid for this emissions permit, still in wrapper?

AS ENERGY-INTENSIVE industries scramble over each other to convince Climate Change Minister Penny Wong that they deserve compensation for the impact of the establishment of an emissions trading scheme (ETS), consumers are asking, "What would such compensation mean for us?" If the European Union experience is anything to go by, it would mean a big increase in the cost of electricity services with no reduction in carbon emissions.

In his discussion paper on an Australian ETS, Professor Ross Garnaut suggested that permits to emit carbon should not be given away freely, but auctioned. He also suggested that any compensation provided to the energy sector should be limited to "trade-exposed, energy-intensive industries" (TEEIIs) such as aluminium and steel producers.

ABC - Rising fuel prices hurting transport workers' health

A support group for transport drivers describes the suicide rate in the transport industry as "phenomenal" and says rising fuel prices will make things worse.

Lucky Innaminckans to be a world first. In fact for decades the town has hot bore water from the Great Artesian Basin and they used it to drive a small turbine. The easiest way for Geodynamics to claim a triumph is do the same thing after running some of that pressurised water down another hole. What comes out may be a hot spray mixed with steam, at least for some months. However in their publicity they claim their ultimate plant will use Kalina cycle with mixed working fluids ammonia and water. I also think that in an arid environment the water must be looped, not once-through via the artesian source. Therefore if the water isn't closed loop and they don't use an ammonia heat exchanger it's just a rejinking of the status quo. Marn will see through this I'm sure.

I'm also upset that the big metal industries will be hurt by the ETS. No doubt they have plans for when there is no coal left and the climate is buggered. Perhaps gyms could issue Mars Bars to patrons who don't want to feel any discomfort. Ways to ease the pain include tariffs, domestic purchase quotas, and cleantech subsidies. Do that outside of the carbon scheme instead of compromising it.

Correction the town that uses artesian water is Birdsville across the Queensland border. They use a Rankine cycle for the single working fluid but the artesian water is not recycled. On the SA side a cattle property called Mulka Station has used artesian water and will now change to a new form of Rankine cycle with the runoff water used for cattle troughs, not looped.

Nobody yet is doing Kalina cycle with closed underground water loop which is what all the fuss is about. That's what has to be proven.

Closed loop water cycle with Kalina cycle generation seems straight forward enough.

It will be a huge leap forward if this works - and should knock all this silly talk about nuclear being necessary on its head once and for all.

Another report today talks about GeoDynamics' other geothermal evnutre - this one near Singleton in the Hunter Valley - nice and close to Sydney and to existing transmission lines.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/05/30/2260176.htm

A company proposing to tap into a geothermal energy source in the upper Hunter Valley will drill deeper, with tests showing temperatures are hot enough for the project to be viable.

GeoDynamics' Hot Rocks project involves pumping water down boreholes onto hot underground granite and using the steam that is generated to drive power station turbines.

The company has been conducting shallow test drills near Singleton for eight years.

The latest results show temperature gradients of up to 58 degrees Celcius per kilometre, which are comparable to those in the company's larger Cooper Basin project in South Australia.

Executive director Doone Wyborn says the next step is deeper drilling to between four and five kilometres underground.

Mr Wyborn believes temperature gradients at that depth would exceed 100 degrees Celcius per kilometre.

"We've got pretty reasonable temperature gradients, not as good as in South Australia," he said.

"But they're pretty reasonable considering we're right in the middle of the energy capital of Australia, if you like, with all the coal fired power stations. There's powerlines virtually running overhead from our site so we are keen to start looking a bit deeper down."

silly talk about nuclear
How does the granite get so hot?

Radioactive decay is different to nuclear fission Boof.

OK getting zapped by strong radiation from natural fission is now highly unlikely but the water brings to the surface radon gas which should not be inhaled.

If the water cycle is closed loop then no gas should be released.

Bingo. If the Innamincka demonstration project is not closed loop they've proved nothing. Just a rehash of the Birdsville concept up the road a ways.

Does anyone actually know if they are doing closed loop ?

I've always assumed that is part of the design (either I read it somewhere or just decided you'd have to solve the water issue for large scale generation) but it would be nice to have confirmation.

That Birdsville plant is cool - must be saving them a lot of money the way diesel prices are going.

Gav,

Geodynamics is planning to go closed loop, but has not as yet implemented it.

Their testing has succesfully intersected two wells with the hot granite fracture zone and reportedly they have good pressure connectivity between the wells. (They plan a 1MW test generator - that should get the fridges in the Innaminka pub humming along pretty nicely! I've been to Innaminka and there aren't many other uses for power there - unless they convert all the dingoes to plug-in electric... Although maybe if they're looking for load they could pump some CO2 down the old Cooper gas wells!)

Interesting details on p8 of their March report: http://www.geodynamics.com.au/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1359

Does anybody know about the thermodynamics of this? They appear to have created a fracture zone of about 4 cubic km. How many MWh of productivity will they get before they have to drill and prepare a new fracture zone? Does any significant heat actually flow into the fracture zone from the surrounding country rock, or are you exclusively sucking down the heat in the fracture zone? Also what's the deal with mineralisation in the bores once the temperature starts to decline?

Sure - I know it isn't implemented yet - just wanted to confirm that my belief that they are going to build a closed loop system and thus the radon gas issue is a furphy.

How low it takes to cool the rocks down is an open question - but its my belief that if they drill say 5 pairs of holes and rotate between them they'll have a perpetual energy machine of sorts.

Ok Boys... settle.

Two other stories for the collection, both from The Age.

Forgotten themes

Here's an unavoidable truth: the price of oil and all of its byproducts will continue to rise. And that's before we even begin an emissions trading scheme, which is guaranteed to lift all energy prices even more and further transform the ways we all do business. And that's why the ridiculous "debate" about the respective merits of the excise cut proposal and FuelWatch has been such a woeful waste of time, energy, public attention and — for the Government and the Opposition — political capital.

And one that might interest Boof

Scientists oppose SA desalination plans

A PLANT to keep a Greg Norman-branded golf course green is one of three desalination proposals in South Australia causing scientific and public concern.

The second desalination plant is proposed by BHP Billiton in the upper reaches of Spencer Gulf to feed its expanded Olympic Dam uranium mine.

posted to EB

I was just about to post the second of those links into the weekend BullRoarer.

I too figured Boof would be interested in it - and even though he is a hopeless nuclear power acolyte yearning for the 1950s I'm not annoyed with him in the slightest - compared to DaveMart he's positively charming :-)

Yes, Well, until we build that nuclear power plant we are going to have to rely on coal to generate the power to desalinate that water to mine the uranium... what better reason do you need Gav ;-)

I'm thinking that Nuclear will not "win" (well not without Gov intervention) purely because of the lead times involved.

Just as the humble FAX conquered the world with all it's flaws, wind and solar, with all there "flaws" can be up and running faster. In the time it would take to design, feasibility study, environmental impact assess, finance, build and commission a nuclear plant... smaller alternatives, will incrementally be built. This will not "solve" the "problem", some adaption will be required. But... the technology that is available in 2-5 years will succeed over that which requires 10 to build.

However, don't be surprised to see Ruddite man make "the hard choice", in the interests of "working families" of course (or some such) and adopt nuclear.

Yes - I wouldn't trust him as far as I could throw him with my left hand.

Its all about cosy deals with big donors - and f*** the environment and what the punters would prefer...

The other bit of Australian nuclear news is that the Silex laser enrichment process is finally going commercial.
http://www.silex.com.au/
It uses a lot less energy than gas diffusion or centrifuges. I gather the idea may have been conceived at ANSTO in the 1980s. In return for a minimum 5% royalty GE Hitachi will use the process at its facility in North Carolina.

In my opinion since Australia has the most uranium we should do the lot - power, enrichment, waste disposal. Otherwise we'll just watch everybody else do OK while we wait for unproven technology.

You want to do old style enrichment rather than wait for the Silex technology to be proven ?

Seems a bit contradictory...

...there is now a greater temptation to steal fuel because it's so expensive, especially in rural and remote areas.

Time to start welding the "Mad Max" spikes on my tanker!