The Bullroarer - Thursday 15th May 2008

National Business Review, NZ - Oil 1, Housing 0

The dismal S-word - stagflation - has hit the headlines, at least among bond managers. A portmanteau word dating back to 1965 when allegedly coined by British Conservative MP Iain McLeod, the term neatly abuts the economic concepts of stagnation and inflation. In its Q2 Market Outlook, chirpily entitled, "Mild Stagflation for Global Economy Next Year", US bond manager Pimco picks that 2009 will prove to be a tug of war between disinflationary forces unleashed by a worldwide housing slump and global inflationary pressures fueled by runaway food and energy commodity prices. Commodities are tipped to win.

ABC - Qld to introduce new public transport body

South-east Queensland will have a new body to oversee public transport from July. Queensland Parliament passed laws last night creating a new and independent TransLink Transit Authority to replace the existing TransLink. Transport Minister John Mickel says it will be charged with improving service integration and will draw on models from London, New York and Paris.


ABC - Rising fuel cost hits ferry fares

The operators of one of Kangaroo Island's ferries say they are confident a rise in fares will not affect the island's tourism trade.

NZ Herald - Gull beats big players to meet biofuel target

Oil industry minnow Gull has laid down the gauntlet to its large competitors by declaring itself just days away from meeting a proposed mandatory sales obligation for biofuels. Although the fate of the Biofuels Bill in Parliament remains uncertain, especially its proposed enforcement date of July 1, Gull expects by next week to have sold enough of its 10 per cent bioethanol-petrol blend to meet the first six-month instalment of the would-be mandate.

That claim was welcomed yesterday by Government energy efficiency officials keen to dispel suggestions by large oil companies that they will not be able to obtain enough biofuels from "sustainable" sources to meet a proposed requirement for biofuels to make up 3.4 per cent of their sales by 2012.

Stuff.co.nz - Travel changes likely

Fuel hikes for airlines are leading to fare increases which, if sustained, will change passenger destination choices, the travel industry says Industry players say airlines want to avoid empty seats so with higher fuel costs there will be less long-haul travel and some consolidation of trans-Tasman routes. Passengers were probably already dropping longer-haul flights to Europe in favour of maintaining their annual holiday to Queensland, one airline said.

The Australian - Improving commuter transport a capital idea

THERE is a very good reason why the Australian Bureau of Statistics only holds a census every five years. It's because demographers like me couldn't stand the excitement of a census being held every year. It's sad but true.

My latest analysis of unpublished data from the census illuminates recent trends in workers commuting between cities. At the 2006 census, about 80,000 Australians lived in a major provincial city and commuted to a capital city for work. This number is up 10,000 over the previous five years, which suggests the trend of inter-city commuting is growing at a rate of about 2000 a year.

The largest single commuting flow between cities is from Wollongong to Sydney. This corridor, largely through the Royal National Park, comprises 19,000 city-bound workers every weekday. The next largest commuting flow is from the Gold Coast to Brisbane with 12,100 workers.

[.....]

One way of alleviating pressure on capital cities is to encourage workers to use public transport to commute into workplaces. This seems to be working in and around Brisbane and Perth; it is not working in and around Sydney and Melbourne.

Stuff.co.nz - Bicycles can ride for free on Wellington trains

Bicycles will be allowed on Wellington trains for free from July 1 in a bid to encourage people to use public transport.

ABC - Energy Regulator warns full competition could drive up residential power bills

The Tasmanian Government has been warned the average residential power bill could rise by up to $75 a year if it allows full competition in the electricity retail market.

The Australian - Woodside completes acquisition of oil assets

WOODSIDE Petroleum has completed the near $300 million purchase of Shell's North West Shelf oil interests in Western Australia. The acquisition, for $US277.7 million ($295.4 million) from Shell Development (Australia) Proprietary, was part of Woodside's strategy shift to its core Australian assets and divest non-core overseas assets.

SMH - Hot stock - Oil Search

What's new? BG Group's attempt to land a knockout blow and secure Origin Energy through a massive 40 per cent premium to the company's stock price has focused investor attention on the Australian energy market - specifically, the comparatively small yet high-growth liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry.

Stuff.co.nz - Experience forges a different route

Kiwibank chief executive Sam Knowles is a big bank turncoat who embodies the state-owned bank's people power spirit. The former high flier at Bank of New Zealand and National Australia Bank shunned a lucrative career at the top of the corporate world for a more balanced lifestyle. ...

In the 1970s, global warming was seen as a potential problem but running out of energy and oil shortages were considered the big constraint, he says. "We are now starting to understand that it is a much bigger global issue that transcends boundaries."

The Government's decision to delay the implementation of its carbon trading scheme will allow time to take stock and ensure New Zealand is contributing something that will help the world overcome the global warming issue, rather than just imposing costs on the economy, Mr Knowles says. "New Zealand always wants to play above its weight . . . so we grabbed on to something – the carbon trading scheme."

It is now dawning on the Government that it is not necessarily something we should lead in, because as a small player it is difficult to create a market, he says.

The Australian - Repair job to boost geothermal development

THE Rudd Government is considering an urgent "repair job" to its budget funding for clean energy technologies by redirecting money for solar technology development to kick-start Australia's fledgling geothermal industry.

The possible patch job less than 24 hours after the budget's release was triggered by the deferral of $900 million on promised technology spending in the Government's climate package.

As part of its election promise, Labor dedicated $50 million out of its $500 million renewable energy fund to assist geothermal energy companies drill the preliminary sets of deep and expensive wells needed to access giant reservoirs of underground heat.

Scoop.co.nz - Climate legislation needs strengthening

The Environmental Trading Scheme has to be strengthened to ensure all those that emit greenhouse gases have an equal incentive to reduce their emissions, the Environment and Conservation Organisations told the Finance and Expenditure Select Committee today. "It is essential the legislation does not give big subsidies to smelters, steel producers, oil and gas industry, farmers or anyone else," Cath Wallace from ECO told the Committee. Cath Wallace is also a senior lecturer in economics and public policy at Victoria University.

The operators of one of Kangaroo Island's ferries say they are confident a rise in fares will not affect the island's tourism trade.

I assume all tourism operators in Australia and New Zealand will be praying that this is so, not least the long-haul airlines. It is quite sobering to watch the cost of highly discretionary leisure travel to Australasia face perils on all sorts of fronts, and meanwhile every tourism commission from national ones down to Biloela have "strategic plans" that factor in doubling and tripling of numbers over the next 5-15 years. Amazing, the infinite inelasticity of demand.

Yup.

I would not want to be invested in the long-haul air industry right now.

But there is a positive side to this - for every European who decides that a holiday in Oz is too expensive, there is probably an Australian who decides to go to Kangaroo Island instead of Paris...

TV addicts might recall the hosts of the show 'Hook Line and Sinker' were appalled that it cost $550 to take a car and runabout to KI. At that spot the ferry trip was 13km from the peninsula south of Adelaide ie paddling distance. Perhaps the operators could absorb some extra fuel costs.

Those KI fares sound rather ambitious - there isn't a 4-star hotel on the island included is there?

Mind you our New Zealand cousins aren't exactly shy when it comes to healthy prices for tourist thrills. It may be the extreme sports Capital of the World, and still gets a stream of Lord of the Rings devotees, but just about everything there (especially if it involves noisy equipment and lots of energy, but even when not, such as Bungy Jumps) is priced to impress. Lots of "licences" too it seems - that look simply like state-sanctioned monopoly rights to me - so competition can be lacking as well.

The AJ Hackett bungy jump outside Queenstown is outrageous in terms of pricing.

Most jet boat rides aren't much better.

That AJ Hackett site does 2 x 5-6 jumps per hour, according to my rough count, at an average of $NZ160 each. Nice little earner, with few big costs - then there are the DVDs, T-shirts, and coffees. People queue to do it though.

Another day and another noticeable absence of anything "Peak Oil" related (or even anything slightly meaningful) by the mainstream media here in New Zealand. Way to go NZ !!!

Instead I can look forward to another entertaining night on TV news digesting the usual rhetoric about petrol price increases brought about by some random event, which has been squeezed into a 3 second time slot between advertisements about either beer or sheep.

Meanwhile the NZ public are blissfully unaware of any need of action, I suspect until it’s all a little too late. However I can report that we do have a public transport system (currently a single diesel powered bus) just there in case, so it might not be to bad when NZ is unable to import any more oil.

Luckily I'm told we do produce oil here, we just can't refine it yet.. too heavy. We prefer our oil a little lighter. But never mind, I have heard on our news here about this "biofuel" stuff. Lucky for us its going to replace oil. I'm looking forward to filling up on that then.

Now, does anyone know where we can get a few million litres of biofuel every day?

Matt – Auckland.