Stories tagged with "tverberg book"

Peak Oil Booklet - Chapter 4: What Should We Do Now?

Posted by Gail the Actuary on August 18, 2007 - 8:00am
Topic: Environment/Sustainability
Tags: food security, gardens, investment, tverberg book, water security [list all tags]

This is a draft of Chapter 4 of my proposed book. The link to previous chapters is http://www.theoildrum.com/tag/tverberg_book .

We know that peak oil will be here soon, and we feel like we should be doing something. But what? It is frustrating to know where to start. In this chapter, we will discuss a few ideas about what we as individuals can do.

1. What will the first few years after peak oil be like?

It is hard to know for certain, but a reasonable guess is that the impact will be like a major recession or depression. Many people will be laid off from work. Gasoline is likely to be very expensive ($10 a gallon or more) and may not be available, except in limited quantities after waiting in line for a long time. Fewer goods of all types will be available in stores. Imports from third-world countries are likely to be especially unavailable, because of the impact of the oil shortage on their economies.

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Peak Oil Booklet: Chapter 3: What's Ahead?

Posted by Gail the Actuary on July 31, 2007 - 9:00am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: oil forecasts, peak oil, tverberg book [list all tags]

This is a draft of Chapter 3 of my booklet. Chapter 1 can be found here; Chapter 2 can be found here.

A number of analysts are saying that peak oil is here now (see Chapter 1, Question 8). Suppose they are correct -- what kind of changes can we expect to see in the years ahead?

In this chapter, we will look at the implications of peak oil now -- how we can expect oil production to change between now and 2030, and how this decline in production is likely to affect the economy. While there are many who believe that peak oil is still a few years away (the newsletter of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas of Ireland predicts a peak in 2011, for example), this analysis will assume that the peak year is 2006, with the decline starting in 2007. If this assumption turns out to be a little early, the worst that will happen is that we will be a little ahead in our planning.

1. If peak is now, how much of a decline in world oil production can be expected in the next few years?

Figure 1 shows historical world oil production, together with two projections of what the future will bring:

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Peak Oil Booklet - Chapter 2: Is This a False Alarm?

Posted by Gail the Actuary on July 17, 2007 - 10:30am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: anwr, jack 2, oil, oil sands, oil shale, outer continental shelf, peak oil, tverberg book [list all tags]

This is a continuation of the booklet discussed previously. A PDF of this chapter is included at the end of this story, if you would like to share it with others.

Chapter 2: Is This a False Alarm?

As we look at the answers to these questions, we will see that the production decline discussed in Chapter 1: What Is Peak Oil? appears to be nearly immediate. Available methods for offsetting this decline appear to be too little, too late. This time the alarm is real.

1. It seems like people thought we were running out of oil in the 1970s, and then all of our problems went away. Why is the situation different now?

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Peak Oil Booklet - Introduction and Chapter 1 - What Is Peak Oil?

Posted by Gail the Actuary on July 17, 2007 - 9:00am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: matthew simmons, oil, peak oil, saudi arabia, tverberg book [list all tags]

On June 26, I posted an article titled Peak Oil Overview - June 2006. A number of you made comments. In this post, I take the initial steps toward expanding the June 26 post into a booklet that could be available with links on TOD, as a PDF, and also could be self-published. I say self-published, because I doubt that a regular publisher would want to publish something that is available without charge on the web. Also, I think there would be a long time-delay in getting it published by a regular publisher. The Appendices would provide supplementary material if the booklet is used is a classroom situation, or if a person wants more background.

This post includes a proposed Introduction and Chapter 1: What Is Peak Oil? I would be interested in hearing people's comments and suggestions. A PDF of Chapter 1 is included at the end of this story.

Introduction to Peak Oil

by Gail Tverberg

Introduction

Chapter 1: What Is Peak Oil?
Chapter 2: Is This a False Alarm?
Chapter 3: What's Ahead?
Chapter 4: What Should We Do Now?
Chapter 5: Where Can We Get Reliable Information?

Appendices:

Appendix A: How Oil Is Produced and Traded
Appendix B: Countries Already Reporting Energy Shortages
Appendix C: Rear Admiral Hyman Rickover's 1957 Speech "Energy and Our Future"
Appendix D: Discussion Questions for Classroom Use

Booklet draft begins below the fold

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