Analysts Neil McMahon and Ben Dell from Bernstein Research are back with more analysis. When we last heard from them, they were looking for Haradh in all the wrong places and reporting on the widespread dismantling and bulldozing of oil wells in Ghawar, the super giant oil field in Saudi Arabia. As promised, they have returned with a study purporting to show that Ghawar is not rapidly depleting because it is not sinking. Using the the technique of Synthetic Aperature Radar (SAR) Interferometry, which is capable of measuring millimeter vertical movements via satellite, they found not subsidence but actually a slight rise in one area. Despite the rather dubious premise behind this, given that Ghawar is being pressurized by injecting water, it warranted another look. However, before getting to that question, my analysis of their analysis rapidly became one of forensic pathology. Alas, they have misplaced Ghawar by a few miles, rendering their interpretations misplaced as well. Also, their technique for quantifying changes in oil field infrastructure was found to be rather inaccurate. This can't end well.

I have seen the future of Saudi Arabian oil production, and it is Harmaliyah. No, really. Sure, there are a couple more good doses of oil to be had from Khurais and Manifa -- and perhaps a bit more from Shaybah -- but after that, what is there but a lot of little fields discovered years ago and produced for a short while before being mothballed? Saudi Aramco essentially admits this by including the rejuvenation of the Nuayyim field, up to a capacity of 100,000 barrels per day, in their list of megaprojects. Well then, why not Harmaliyah? It is of similar size, and both fields had about 50 wells drilled before being set on the back burner. Saudi Aramco hasn't said much about this little field in the shadow of Ghawar, so one might assume that nothing is happening there. Well, it just so happens...