I was, just recently, at one of our annual Conferences. There were about 450 delegates, from 17 countries, with an associated exhibition with, I suppose, around 50 displays. After the meeting was over I wandered down town and took in a show that featured 12 Irish tenors (who came from places such as Australia, London, and the U.S. as well as the auld sod itself). Following the show I dined, in this inland, rather dry location, on seafood that, though delicious, had obviously traveled some considerable distance. I mention this because, for many academic types, this is a fairly common annual activity. It is how we network most frequently (and not just academics, since we were very much in the minority at this particular gathering). These types of event provide considerable income to the locations where they are a common happening. It is, like tourism, an activity that requires considerable travel, and considerable fuel (and not just the sort that comes in small glasses at the social events). Travel has become an assumed right, and there is no thought, at gatherings such as this, that their day in the sun may very soon wane. I helped put a meeting together in 2003 and with the concerns and expense of travel at that time, the attendance was down significantly from earlier meetings, and took another year to bounce back, and it is only in the last two years that we have been seeing the sorts of numbers that we had pre-2001.

It set me to thinking of the Denver Peak Oil meeting, when one evening as Stuart, Dave Cohen and I headed out for dinner, Stuart commented that I was much the most pessimistic of the three. And now I am trying to decide whether that is still true (if it was). I think, in the short-term it probably isn’t, but in the longer-term it may well be. So let me explain my reasons and, in the process, perhaps disagree a little with some of my colleagues.