Stories tagged with "opec reserves"

The 2008 IEA WEO - Oil Reserves and Resources

Posted by Phil Hart on November 20, 2008 - 10:28am in The Oil Drum: Australia/New Zealand
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: iea, oil reserves, opec reserves, original, reserves growth, undiscovered resources, weo 2008 [list all tags]

True to their word, the 2008 World Energy Outlook represents a significant development by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in the philosophy and methodology of their oil supply forecasts. The report attempts a bottom-up model of the world's oil production potential and even revises down estimates previously taken at face value from the United States Geological Survey (USGS). The tone of the report has also changed dramatically, with an urgent call for investment in additional oil projects to avoid production shortfalls by 2015.

Despite those significant changes, the report still relies on inflated estimates of reserves from OPEC countries, overplays the contribution of reserves growth due to technology and predicts the reversal of a decades long trend of declining oil discoveries. These are the real factors that will send oil production into decline, but at least now we have some numbers we can discuss and analyze instead of a decade of blind faith in oil market economics.


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President Bush Questions Saudi Ability to Raise Oil Supply

Posted by Gail the Actuary on January 17, 2008 - 9:45am
Topic: Policy/Politics
Tags: eia, george w. bush, iea, oil production, opec, opec reserves, saudi arabia [list all tags]

Last night, on ABC's Nightline, Terry Moran interviewed President Bush in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, during his trip to the Middle East. When discussing what President Bush might say to the King of Saudi Arabia to lower oil prices, George Bush said:

If they don't have a lot of additional oil to put on the market, it is hard to ask somebody to do something they may not be able to do.

If Saudi Arabia doesn't have a much additional oil to put on the market, the veracity of what Saudi Arabia has been saying about extra capacity is brought into question. More importantly, it starts raising questions about Saudi Arabia's true long-term oil production capability. Can Saudi Arabia really ramp up oil production in the future? Are the high reserves posted by Saudi Arabia and other Middle-Eastern countries really indicative of high future production capability?

The interview with George W. Bush can be seen at this link. The above quote is about 1:55 into the interview.

This is a link to a Press Release we did with respect to this story. Feel free to link to it in your Blogs.

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Do Oil Reserves Tell Us <i>Anything</i>?

Posted by Stuart Staniford on April 28, 2006 - 11:56pm
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: hubbert peak, oil prices, opec reserves, peak oil [list all tags]

History of global proved reserves excepting OPEC in billions of barrels (also known as Gigabarrels = Gb. A barrel is 42 US gallons) on the left scale, with global production excluding OPEC on the right scale. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy. Click to enlarge.

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What would we have predicted for Kuwait?

Posted by Stuart Staniford on January 20, 2006 - 8:06pm
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: hubbert peak, kuwait reserves, oil prices, opec reserves, peak oil [list all tags]

For me, the reports that Kuwaiti reserves are much less than claimed are not news because they allege the Kuwaitis have been lying about their reserves. What is news is the new reported numbers for reserves. So would Hubbert linearization have given us the right answer?

Linearization of Kuwaiti oil production. Data source: American Petroleum Institute (via Jean Laherrere) and BP Statistical Review of World Energy. Click to enlarge.

Update [2006-1-21 2:25:16 by Stuart Staniford]: More graphs and a stability analysis added to the story below the fold.

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