Stories tagged with "opec"

What should OPEC do?

Posted by Euan Mearns on December 11, 2008 - 9:54am in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Policy/Politics
Tags: $75, oecd, oil prices, opec, original [list all tags]

When OPEC meet on 17th December, how will they go about deciding the size of the inevitable production cuts?

All OPEC states want the oil price to rise from current $44 / bbl (WTI). Some states will also be concerned that the price target is affordable by their OECD customers. But set against a backdrop of global economic turmoil and volatility in all markets, how do they judge the size of the production cut required to deliver the target price? Saudi Arabia is reported to favor a price of $75 / bbl, just short of the cost of new marginal supply in the OECD. Achieving this price in the medium term would keep OPEC in the driving seat.

This short post is intended to be a discussion thread. Below the fold, I outline one radical idea for OPEC to achieve their goal in the short term.

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IEA WEO 2008 - NGLs to the Rescue?

Posted by Rune Likvern on December 5, 2008 - 8:48am in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: bp statistical review 2008, condensates, eia ipm, iea weo 2008, ncs, ngl, north field, opec, sleipner, south pars [list all tags]

According to the IEA World Energy Outlook 2008, p. 261:

Output of natural gas liquids — light hydrocarbons that exist in liquid form underground and that are produced together with natural gas and recovered in separation facilities or processing plants — is expected to grow rapidly over the Outlook period. Global NGL production is projected to almost double, from 10.5 mb/d in 2007 to just under 20 mb/d in 2030.

One can see from IEA's chart of World Oil Production by Source that the growth of natural gas liquids, or NGLs, is being depended on as a significant contributor to total world oil production:


World Oil Production by Source, Reference Scenario, shown as Figure 11.1 on page 250 of IEA WEO 2008.

In this post, I will document that there is good reason to believe that the IEA WEO 2008 projections in the reference scenario overshoots the likely world production of NGLs by as much as 35 - 50 % by 2030.

One way of estimating expected NGLs is as a ratio to natural gas production, representing the wetness or dryness of gas. One would expect this ratio to decline over time, based on what normally has been observed from fields, areas and regions with good quality data. Instead, the IEA is forecasting that this ratio will increase in the future.

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Oilwatch Monthly - November 2008

Posted by Rembrandt on November 24, 2008 - 8:40am in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: demand, eia, iea, non-opec, oilwatch, opec, original, stocks total liquids, supply, world production [list all tags]

The November 2008 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.55 MB, 24 pp).


Figure 1 - World Liquids production from January 2004 to October 2008.

The Oilwatch Monthly is a newsletter that is available free of charge with the latest data on oil supply, demand, oil stocks, spare capacity and exports. Readers who want to receive the Oilwatch Monthly in their e-mail box each month can subscribe at this weblink, by filling in their first name, last name, email adress and selecting the oilwatch monthly in the mailing list box. To finalize your subscription push the 'inschrijven' button below the form.

A summary and latest graphics below the fold.

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The Global Energy Crisis and its Role in the Pending Collapse of the Global Economy

Posted by Euan Mearns on November 3, 2008 - 9:25am in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Policy/Politics
Tags: bio fuel, ccs, climate change, credit, deflation, einstein, energy efficiency, energy poverty, eroei, gdp, hydrogen, inflation, ipcc, lia, olduvai, opec, original, production decline, united kingdom [list all tags]


When my talk to the Royal Society of Chemists was first arranged this summer, oil cost over $130 per barrel, and we wondered where the price would be in October. Since then much has happened. The credit expansion bubble was pricked in part by inflation stemming from high energy prices, and the global banking system is teetering on the brink of collapse, reprieved only by the spread of social ownership throughout the OECD.

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October 24, 2008 OPEC Meeting Open Thread

Posted by Gail the Actuary on October 23, 2008 - 10:09pm
Topic: Miscellaneous
Tags: oil production, opec, original, production cuts, quota, saudi arabia [list all tags]

OPEC will be holding its meeting on oil production in Vienna, Austria on October 24.

I have not been able to locate a schedule, but the OPEC Meeting Website indicates that there will be live streaming of some events--press conferences, interviews, and opening events. This is described at this location. It is virtually certain that the meeting itself will not be on the webcast.

The website gives a form for people to submit questions to possibly be asked of senior OPEC officials at press conferences.

I am posting this information in advance, since the meeting starts while those of us in the United States are still sleeping. Some of you in other parts of the world may want to tune in to the webcast.

Below the fold you will find a few quotes I have noticed preceding the conference. It sounds to me like there are several hard-liners who want big cuts and several others who are cautious about making cuts.

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POLL: How much will OPEC Quotas be cut on Friday?

Posted by Gail the Actuary on October 23, 2008 - 9:16am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: oil production, opec [list all tags]

Between 0.5 and 1.4 million BPD
28% (333 votes)
Between 1.5 and 2.4 million BPD
36% (422 votes)
Between 2.5 and 3.4 million BPD
5% (64 votes)
3.5 million BPD or more
4% (45 votes)
There will be cuts, but it won't matter because countries will continue to produce as before.
25% (288 votes)
No cuts
2% (22 votes)
Total votes: 1174
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Oilwatch Monthly - October 2008

Posted by Rembrandt on October 23, 2008 - 8:50am in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: demand, eia, iea, non-opec, oilwatch, opec, original, stocks total liquids, supply, world production [list all tags]

The October 2008 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.42 MB, 24 pp).

Figure 1 - World Liquids production from January 2004 to September 2008.

A summary and latest graphics below the fold.

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Oilwatch Monthly - August 2008

Posted by Rembrandt on August 18, 2008 - 10:18am in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: eia, iea, non-opec, oilwatch, opec, original, supply, total liquids, world production [list all tags]

The August 2008 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.34 MB, 26 pp). In this edition I have added more demand, oil stock and production revision data.

Figure 1 - OECD crude oil stocks from January 2002 to June 2008.

A summary and latest graphics below the fold.

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May 2008 EIA Oil Production Record. Will it Too be Revised Downward?

Posted by Gail the Actuary on August 7, 2008 - 9:28am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: eia, iraq, north america, oil production, opec, original, peak oil, russia, saudi arabia [list all tags]

Yesterday, August 6, the EIA published new International Petroleum Monthly data. The new data revised downward previously published estimates, all the way back to 2002, with the biggest revisions in 2007 and 2008. With the revisions, the latest month, May 2008, shows new record-high oil production. Other recent months which had previously set records are now 67,000 barrels per day to 417,000 barrels per day lower than reported just a month ago. In this post, I offer a few thoughts on what the new data suggests.


Figure 1. World crude and condensate production, based on August 2008 EIA International Petroleum Monthly

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Mainstream Dutch analysts foresee oil supply constrained world

Posted by Rembrandt on July 30, 2008 - 7:17pm in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: bp, ciep, demand, non-opec, oil prices, oil supply, opec, shell, total [list all tags]

An important Dutch energy institute, the Clingendael International Energy Program (CIEP), recently published a report that confirms most of the conclusions about the oil market reached over the years at the oildrum. That the floor price of oil is now 110 dollars per barrel, that supply will not rise beyond 100-105 million b/d in the coming decades, that there will be an oil supply constraint for most of the next decade, that there are insufficient quantities of alternative fuels available and that thus demand destruction is inevitable. CIEP is especially important because it is endorsed by amongst others BP, Shell Netherlands, Total E&P Netherlands, three Dutch Ministries, Wintershall, Vopak Oil Europe Middle East and several Dutch energy companies. The report in english can be downloaded here (PDF 2.8 megabytes, 108 pages).

'This outlook of new scarcity is now exacerbated by the fact that not only available supply will determine what amount of demand can be satisfied; it will also bring about a new allocation of the available oil due to a lack of adequate supply growth compared with demand. In practice this means that demand rationing will be required in the OECD countries and particularly in the US, in order to accommodate growth in the newly developing countries, notably China and India. Different fuel prices for end-consumers in the different countries will be the dominant factor behind this ‘oil redistribution’. (emphasis mine)

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