Stories tagged with "oil sands"

Unconventional Oil: Tar Sands and Shale Oil - EROI on the Web, Part 3 of 6

This is third in a series of six guest posts by Professor Charles Hall of the SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry describing the energy statistic, "EROI" for various fuels. As has been discussed often on this site, net energy analysis is a vitally important concept - just as we primarily care about our take home pay which is our salary minus the taxes, we should care about our 'take home' energy, which is what is left after energy costs have been accounted for. As important as it is, this measure is not easy to quantify, as: a)data is almost always measured in $ as opposed to energy terms, b) parsing non-energy inputs (and outputs) into energy terms is difficult, and c) analysis boundaries (including environmental impacts) are very disparate. As such, there is not (has not yet been) a consistent formula for EROI applied to all energy studies that has led to policymakers and analysts speaking the same language in useful ways. The lead paper in this months Royal Academy of Sweden's journal AMBIO will be about such an EROI framework, and we will link to it when it comes online.

Professor Hall has been working in this area for over 30 years. Below are net energy analysis from Hall's group on the unconventional oil sources from tar sands and oil shaletwo resources that theoretically are enormous in energy scale, but practically are limited by flow rates, costs, and externalities. Just how limited is the subject of todays two-part informative post is below the fold. Remember, any specific numerical help via referenced literature, personal experience or knowledge to better inform Dr. Hall and his students would be appreciated.

The Energy and Environment Round-Up: October 14th 2007

This is an Energy and Environment Round-Up by ilargi.

As the tar sands royalties soap drags on, and we do have links to some really good articles on the topic, from Nature.org, Mother Jones, and many others, still, how could we not open with climate change, two days after Al Gore and the IPCC won the first ever Climate Change Nobel Prize, and Sheila Watt-Cloutier and James Hansen did not?

Everything that the winners stand for is rendered obsolete in one broad stroke by the article from New Scientist that we open with below. And that is the problem: the people who do the frontline work are snubbed, while the late arrivals get decorated. Yes, Gore raises awareness. But awareness of what, exactly?

And that’s not the only issue: both winners stand out for being repeatedly, if not incessantly, wrong on what they claim to be experts in, only to be corrected time and again by those they beat out for the award. Yes, it’s done, we know, and maybe we should just lower our standards, like everyone else. Problem with that is, we don’t trust there’s time left for any standards other than the real ones.

The Energy and Environment Round-Up: October 10th 2007

In Alberta, the debate of the the tar sands royalty review is heating up. Major companies are threatening to pull investments in the province, while other point out that a peaking world offers them few other options. The environmental effects of large-scale bitumen mining, which are not considered often enough, are discussed in detail in journalist Willam Marsden's new book.

On the other side of the country, LNG shipments seem set to ignite a political row over safety in narrow shipping lanes. Nuclear appears to be approaching a revival, although cost is an issue. The effects of climate change are making themselves felt across the globe, notably in the Australia and in the Arctic, where Inuit climate change campaigner Sheila Watt-Cloutier could be about to share the Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore. (More under the fold!)

The Energy and Environment Round-Up: October 4th 2007


Macleans: Alberta stands accused
A huge fight between East and West -- over the oil sands -- is just starting


Left unfettered, Alberta's energy sector will, by the end of this century, transform the southern part of the province into a desert and its north into a treeless, toxic swamp. Driven both by global warming and oil and gas developments, temperatures in Alberta will soar by as much as eight degrees. The Athabasca River will slow to a trickle, parching the remainder of the province's forests and encouraging them to burst into flame, generating vast quantities of CO2. "They're going to be the architects of their own destruction," says journalist William Marsden, whose new book outlines the environmental threats posed by Alberta's energy industry.

The Energy and Environment Round-Up: September 29th 2007

The Alberta royalty review continues to generate a predictable response from an industry which has seen costs rise more rapidly than prices in recent years. Even though Alberta’s take is comparatively low, Encana has announced it will withdraw $1 billion in investment if the new royalty recommendations are accepted by the province.

Elsewhere on the energy scene, Alberta looks to expand both wind and nuclear power, while Ontario reactors’ inability to deal with an unexpected spell of warm weather during maintenance outage season made electricity imports necessary.

Globally, questions are increasingly raised over the global warming effects of both ethanol production and hydro-power dams.

In environmental news the drought in Australia and the Ukraine has led to record wheat prices and concerns over feeding the world's poor. The Arctic warms ever more rapidly, for some an opportunity to exploit new resources, rather than a problem. If warming continues to accelerate, it just might become an 'insurmountable opportunity'.


'All bets are off'


In the 10 days since a provincially appointed panel dropped its bombshell report recommending that Alberta play hardball with the oilpatch, work inside Calgary's office towers has turned from planning growth to assessing damage and even eyeing an exodus....

...."Everybody is holding their breath right now," said Hal Walker, a long-time provincial Tory and real-estate developer who is critical of the review process. "All bets are off."....

....Deutsche Bank highlighted the escalating risk of investing in the province: "Risk, risk and risk, and there's risk. Above all, be warned about risk," it said.

As out of character as the panel recommendations seem in business friendly Alberta, observers say it has big support in rural Alberta and in Edmonton, areas that believe they have suffered the downside of the oilsands driven boom, while not reaping enough of the benefits.

The Round-Up: September 25th 2007


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The week after we saw bank runs in the UK, a measure of calm has returned to the markets thanks to a combination of central bank bailouts, government deposit guarantees and interest rate cuts. For all that heavy intervention, one derivatives market expert warns that we are still at the beginning of the beginning of the credit crunch.

On the Canadian energy scene, the debate over the Alberta oil and gas royalties review continues. Alberta, which has lower royalties than comparable jurisdictions, wants its fair share, but that could affect Ottawa's tax take. Investors concerned about the royalty issue seem keen to extract themselves from tar sands investments. With the Canadian dollar at parity with the US dollar for the first time since 1976, there are concerns about the ability of the Canadian economy to adapt and compete.

Concerns on the climate front center on the potential for methane-powered runaway warming thanks to new research on the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. The direct relationship between carbon offsets and increasing child labour in the third world is also worth highlighting.


Are we headed for an epic bear market?

One of the world's leading experts on credit derivatives, Das is the author of a 4,200-page reference work on the subject, among a half-dozen other tomes. As a developer and marketer of the exotic instruments himself over the past 30 years. He seemed like the ideal industry insider to help us get to the bottom of the recent debt crunch -- and I expected him to defend and explain the practice.

I started by asking the Calcutta-born Australian whether the credit crisis was in what Americans would call the "third inning." This was pretty amusing, it seemed, judging from the laughter. So I tried again. "Second inning?" More laughter. "First?"

Still too optimistic. Das, who knows as much about global money flows as anyone in the world, stopped chuckling long enough to suggest that we're actually still in the middle of the national anthem before a game destined to go into extra innings. And it won't end well for the global economy....

....When you add it all up, according to Das' research, a single dollar of "real" capital supports $20 to $30 of loans. This spiral of borrowing on an increasingly thin base of real assets, writ large and in nearly infinite variety, ultimately created a world in which derivatives outstanding earlier this year stood at $485 trillion -- or eight times total global gross domestic product of $60 trillion.

The Round-Up: September 21st 2007

Canada's economy is moving and shaking. The loonie reached parity with the US dollar for the first time since the Gerald Ford presidency. But don't be fooled: it's not the Canadian economy that does so great, it's the US that sinks ever further ever faster, and the rest of the world is sinking with it, including Canada.

The long-awaited report on the royalty rates for the Alberta tar sands was published, and it recommends raising the royalties significantly. Both the industry and the business-friendly media in Canada cry foul, and worse. Just a few months ago, Shell said their tar sands operation was immensely profitable, but now the tune has changed.

Some voices say raising the royalties reeks of too-big government, and comparisons with Hugo Chavez fly everywhere. But those same voices do want the government to pay for the Mackenzie Valley pipeline.

Go here for the full report.


Caracas on the Bow River

Tim Hearn, chief executive officer of top oil sands producer Imperial Oil, said any additional royalties would harm companies already facing sky-high labour and construction costs for their projects.

“I'm not in a position today to say whether we've reached a tipping point or not because I can't tell you,” Mr. Hearn said. “But there's enough things working against us that if all this stays in place as is, there will be an effect in the industry, clearly.”

A former oil executive who was on the review panel lashed back at energy executives, saying they should concentrate on better managing their own businesses and contain cost increases rather than “whining” about higher royalties.

“I don't have any sympathies,” said Sam Spanglet, who ran Shell Canada Ltd.'s oil sands operation before retiring several years ago. “[Alberta is] still going to be very competitive. I feel very confident.”

Some Calgarians were angry, with one broker e-mailing his clients with the subject line: “Caracas on the Bow River,” comparing Alberta with Venezuela and its socialist President Hugo Chavez, who expropriated oil assets this year.

“If [the report is] enacted, investment decisions will be impacted … [the report] reads a bit like a Chavez-style manifesto,” Steve Larke, a Peters & Co. Ltd. broker, said in the e-mail.

The Round-Up: September 11th 2007

In her new book The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism, Canadian writer Naomi Klein uses the example of public sector dismantling in both New Orleans and Iraq as an illustration of Milton Friedman's idea that crisis presents an opportunity to push a pre-existing agenda and achieve sweeping change. This is both an important point and a timely warning, as the developing international credit crunch is arguably approaching a critical phase. The inability to roll over short term commercial paper, often backed by dubious loans, is presenting an enormous challenge to a banking system short of cash. The coming economic upheaval could be sufficient to precipitate far-reaching socio-political changes on a global scale.

On the energy front, CIBC World Markets claims that Canada has 50-70% of the investable oil reserves in the world, for oil majors increasingly shut out of producing regions. However, those reserves suffer from a shortage of pipeline capacity for both inputs and output. Saskatchewan decides against 'clean coal' on cost grounds, but continues to maintain a low royalty, low tax regime for natural resources. In the meantime, the Canadian wind industry is being consolidated in fewer and fewer hands, and there is strong resistance to uranium mining in rural Ontario.

As for environmental news, Holland is developing a 200 year plan for climate change, but with the assumption that sea-levels will rise very little despite evidence of rapid change in Greenland's icesheets. There is considerable concern over the potential for warming to activate microbial oxidation of the organic matter of the arctic tundra, which could ignite a devastating spiral of positive feedback.


Naomi Klein: The Shock Doctrine

In one of his most influential essays, Friedman articulated contemporary capitalism's core tactical nostrum, what I have come to understand as "the shock doctrine". He observed that "only a crisis - actual or perceived - produces real change". When that crisis occurs, the actions taken depend on the ideas that are lying around. Some people stockpile canned goods and water in preparation for major disasters; Friedmanites stockpile free-market ideas. And once a crisis has struck, the University of Chicago professor was convinced that it was crucial to act swiftly, to impose rapid and irreversible change before the crisis-racked society slipped back into the "tyranny of the status quo". A variation on Machiavelli's advice that "injuries" should be inflicted "all at once", this is one of Friedman's most lasting legacies....

....I started researching the free market's dependence on the power of shock four years ago, during the early days of the occupation of Iraq. I reported from Baghdad on Washington's failed attempts to follow "shock and awe" with shock therapy - mass privatisation, complete free trade, a 15% flat tax, a dramatically downsized government. Afterwards I travelled to Sri Lanka, several months after the devastating 2004 tsunami, and witnessed another version of the same manoeuvre: foreign investors and international lenders had teamed up to use the atmosphere of panic to hand the entire beautiful coastline over to entrepreneurs who quickly built large resorts, blocking hundreds of thousands of fishing people from rebuilding their villages. By the time Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans, it was clear that this was now the preferred method of advancing corporate goals: using moments of collective trauma to engage in radical social and economic engineering.

Tar Sands: The Oil Junkie's Last Fix, Part 2

This is part 2 of a guest post by Chris Nelder. It was originally written for Friday's Energy and Capital.

This is a continuation of my previous article (Tar Sands: The Oil Junkie's Last Fix, Part 1) on the challenges facing the Canadian tar sands, in which we looked at the cost and financing issues. Today we look at water, energy, labour and the environment.

The Round-Up: August 28th 2007

The developing credit crunch is looking less contained by the day, despite the recent bounce in the equity markets. The interconnectedness of global markets really becomes apparent when contagion threatens to spread.

Following on from the Montebello SPP summit, Naomi Klein brings us an interesting twist on the right of protestors to be heard - surveillance as the new participatory democracy.

More commentators are weighing in on the question of Newfoundland oil royalties, while a pipeline capacity shortage looms in Alberta and potential conflict brews in BC over coal bed methane.


Top 25 Quotes on the Credit Crisis of 'O7

The U.S. economy, once the envy of the world, is now viewed across the globe with suspicion. America has become shackled by an immovable mountain of debt that endangers its prosperity and threatens to bring the rest of the world economy crashing down with it. The ongoing sub-prime mortgage crisis, a result of irresponsible lending policies designed to generate commissions for unscrupulous brokers, presages far deeper problems in a U.S. economy that is beginning to resemble a giant smoke-and-mirrors Ponzi scheme. And this has not been lost on the rest of the world. - Hamid Varzi, International Tribune