Stories tagged with "oil price forecasts"

Fuel for Thought - The Future of Transport Fuels

The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) is the national government body for scientific research in Australia. The CSIRO Future Fuels Forum (FFF) began in November 2007 and culminated in July 2008 with the release of a report, "Future Fuels Forum report - Fuel for thought". The initiative brought together 18 leading representatives from Australia’s community, industry and government to share ideas and develop a range of options for our nation’s transport fuel future, determining what could potentially get us ‘from A to B’ by the middle of the century.

ASPO Australia spokesperson (and TOD editor) Phil Hart gave this speech at the launch of the report on Friday 11th July:

The Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil congratulates CSIRO for leading the Future Fuels Forum and thanks all the participants for the constructive dialogue that led to this final report. We have all learnt new things along the way. I have been personally encouraged to hear of the many changes businesses have been making – there are more pro-active changes under way than even I realised.

2007 began with oil prices falling back to near $50 a barrel – because the speculators got it wrong. Many forum participants would have choked on a prediction of $8/litre (~US$30/gallon) early last year, but tight supply and the rapid increase in prices since then have given them courage to accept these dramatic model outcomes now. No one can know the precise future of oil prices, but such high figures reflect how hard it is to transform our cities and economies built on cheap oil when we are faced with declining oil production.

Xmas Open Thread

Happy Holidays to all! Here's hoping we're all wrong about a near-term peak!

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Listening to the cacophony and trying to make some sense

Everybody seems to have an opinion about where oil prices are headed and a rationalization for their prognostication.  Lee Raymond at Exxon keeps jawboning for $25/bbl oil.  John Browne at BP suggests oil prices will "settle" at around $40/bbl.  OPEC's acting secretary general recently stated that OPEC's target price is between $40 and $50 (Petroleum Intelligence Weekly, Nov. 21 edition - requires paid subscription.)  Oil pundits working for consulting companies, investment banks, the EIA etc. are predicting 2006 prices of about $58/bbl (average of 11 estimates ranging from $70 to $47/bbl - published in the Petroleum Intelligence Weekly Nov 14 edition.)  The NYMEX futures market is "predicting" $60 to $61 through 2007, with prices in the mid-$50's out through 2012.  Matt Simmons, on the other hand, made a $5000 bet that oil will be higher than $200/bbl by 2010.

Whose prediction is closer to the truth (as we know it today)?  What are these people's motivations?