Prof G has just made reference to the new article in Nature, concerning the possibility of Peak Oil, and hiding under the title “That’s oil, folks . . .” It begins with a comment on the Boston Meeting on Peak Oil and Gas last October, but largely is a review, by their Chief of Correspondents of some of the issues, with the major proponents of the opposing sides being Matt Simmons and Peter Jackson Of Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA).

While, I suspect that there is little real benefit is re-rehearsing all the arguments that we could put forward, since they have been brought up in a number of responses to the publications of CERA over the past few months, particularly those by Dave and Euan, though they merely exemplify a number, yet I feel a response is called for since, inter alia, the President of Aramco just said:

Over the last several years, no less than thirty books have been devoted to the “peak oil” theory, the imminent exhaustion of oil, and the world’s inability to grow future petroleum supplies. The peak oil proponents routinely used the rise in oil prices over the last several years as evidence for their arguments about scarcity, but with the recent pullback in prices and the moderating call on oil from Saudi Aramco and other major producers, many now acknowledge there is actually an oversupply of petroleum in the market. In fact, what seems to be in short supply these days are vocal peak oil theorists!

Well, the rising production of the growingly-expensive alternate fuel, ethanol, would suggest, at least to some, that this is more than a theory, and the growing inability of some of the poorer nations to provide adequate power to their people would underline that suggestion. The demand destruction that lowers demand and thereby stretches supply is already occurring.