Hmm! Maybe the next book review I’ll do will be “The Boy’s King Arthur.” Well actually, given the controversy about him (he was a Celt and they ultimately lost – after he died - so he has been relegated to mythical status. The winners write the history books), perhaps that might not be such a good idea. I recently looked at an NRC survey showing the classes of disciplines at a University and while history had more than 8 subdivisions as I remember, there was no mention of energy per se, or most of the energy production disciplines – so just imagine the columns of controversy I might generate. But it also speaks, by itself, to how important certain issues are ranked in the corridors of the mighty.

So let’s get back to the status of the world of oil. And while, as one of the recent conferees noted, the public thinks that, since prices having dropped back “we survived the energy crisis,” sadly the world picture is really getting worse. Sometimes, when I have looked at what we have projected, I have consoled myself with the thought to myself along the lines of “well these are the lower estimates, it really isn’t going to be that bad.” Unfortunately the numbers that are now starting to pop up hold no such comfort, and are beginning to confirm what our contributors have been predicting for a while.

Thanks to Matt for pointing to the Sydney peak Oil site where the latest Megaprojects list from Chris Skrebowski has been made available. This is an upgrade from last October and shows some fairly significant changes. I haven't finished reviewing all the projects yet, since he now carries the projections forward past 2010 in more detail, and has also included more OPEC information. The latter is due to a more open attitude from OPEC, and a more detailed list from them. Their site is worth a visit. As a result Chris's list, for example, has seven new projects for this year alone that were not on the last list. His numbers now also reflect the anticipated increased production from the Athabasca sands in Canada, and also NGL and condensate production that can be anticipated from mainly natural gas wells.

To give a very rough number his overall projected increase in production, if all the projects now scheduled come on line on time and at current targeted capacities, is that production will go up by something less than 1 mbd a year over his last projection. To put this in context, back last October, estimating a 5% decrease in existing well production, and an average of around 1.75 mbd of increased demand per year would give an annual shortfall in production of around 3.2 mbd relative to anticipated demand in each of the next four years. He had anticipated that oil demand for 2005 would be 83.5 mbd, increased demand would be 1.4 mbd, while there would be an increase in supply of 2.4 mbd, of which non-OPEC would provide 1.5 mbd. Depletion would be at 4.2 mbd.