As the production from Saudi Arabia continues to lag, even if transiently, Russian production and exports become more critical to world supply. And so we exchange the problems of getting oil from the sandy wastes of the Empty Quarter, with those of production from the icy wastes of Siberia. There are a couple of small issues, that I thought could be discussed, relative to this.

The first of these relates to gas supplies from that part of the world. It was interesting to note, in light of a number of comments made on this site about Gazprom’s acquisition of Western European pipeline company shares, that they now appear to be similarly interested in those of Portugal, as their strategy to control gas flows throughout Europe continues to succeed. The benefits, to them, of this policy are clear, for example in the negotiations over Kovykta, a field with 2 tcf of natural gas and over half a billion barrels of condensate. The plans were to sell some 2 bcf, largely locally, and then to expand deliveries through pipeline networks.

Unfortunately BP has noted:

TNK-BP cannot sell gas from its vast east Siberian Kovykta field or its smaller Rospan unit in western Siberia without Gazprom because of the Russian gas giant's monopoly control over Russia's pipeline network.

And here it has a problem, since the local market is not large enough to absorb the gas that the field can produce...

One could start by noting that China's economy has been growing at 10.7% this year about 2.7% above the initial target of 8%, a number that has also been set as the official rate for next year, at this point. And while there are some publicity stunts, such as trying to stop private cars driving for a day, that will both highlight the current reported consumption of 8.7 mbd by those cars, it will also highlight the benefits of public transportation, one can assume that the current trend of higher than official growth rates may well continue. However even though the power generation system is currently hurting due to a drought that has lowered water levels, newly built coal and natural gas plants should cover the shortage.

China's seasonal hydropower output has been falling since August as dry weather shrinks reservoirs, but two years of rapidly rising coal- and gas-fired power generation should prevent another surge in oil demand.

Power generation from hydropower plants -- which can produce up to a quarter of China's electricity -- fell 10.3 percent on year in October, raising the burden on other plants to meet China's 10-plus percent growth in electricity demand.

Output was down by 8 percent and 4 percent, respectively, in the preceding two months, as water reserves shrank and the southwest was crippled by a drought that state media said was the worst in over a century.

This article is a first simplistic (but comprehensive) assessment of World Oil Exports, here defined has the total amount of liquid hydrocarbons that are surpluses in producing countries. This assessment is made by projecting in to the future fixed change rates that reflect current trends in liquids production and consumption in countries where presently the difference between the two is positive. The outcome of this assessment is worrisome.