Stories tagged with "iran"

Can A 'Shadow OPEC' of 'Global Guerrillas' Set Global Oil Prices?

Posted by Prof. Goose on June 18, 2008 - 9:15am
Topic: Policy/Politics
Tags: 4gw, 5gw, disruption, global guerrillas, iran, iraq, light sweet crude, nigeria, opec, shadow opec, terrorism [list all tags]

This is a guest post by John Robb. John is an author, an entrepreneur, a blogger at Global Guerrillas, and a former USAF pilot in special operations. His book, Brave New War was published in April 2007 by Wiley, which can be purchased here. The book apparently is influential, since Robb was named one of the "Best and Brightest" by Esquire Magazine and invited to speak at a plethora of venues (the DoD, CIA, NSA, NIC, Highlands Forum, Center for Biosecurity, and many more). The book is also being used in universities from the Naval Post Graduate School to Johns Hopkins.

The run-up in oil prices over the last four years is usually framed, likely correctly, as a combination of torrential demand from developing countries (China and India), speculation, and peak supply. Other analysis indicates that production is also being damaged due to NOC mismanagement, political instability, and rapid increases in domestic consumption within oil exporting countries.

However, the rapidity and volatility of current oil prices may be due to a more narrow set of factors surrounding the production of light sweet crude: the comparative quality and scarcity of light sweet crude, world demand, and guerrilla systems disruption.

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Turkmenistan learns a lesson

Posted by Heading Out on January 15, 2008 - 10:00am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: china, gas shortage, gazprom, iran, ireland, kazakhstan, natural gas, russia, turkey, turkmenistan, uzbekistan [list all tags]

There has been the occasional story popping up in Drumbeat over this past week or so about the severe winter and gas shortages in Iran, and their resulting cut in supplies to Turkey. The Iranian domestic shortage was supposed to be made up from Turkmenistan. Unfortunately the shortfall from Iran to Turkey was supposed to be made up by increased supplies from Russia, but those also are falling short. About a year ago we saw some of the same discussion about supplies from Turkmenistan, through Russia, to Europe, with shortfalls and price increases – particularly relating to the gas supplies to Ukraine, through which the pipelines flow. At the end of that discussion the Turkmen got an increase in the price of their gas. It is therefore not surprising to see that Turkmenistan is seeking to double the price it gets from Iran.

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ODAC Newsletter, Saturday 20 October

Posted by Doug Low on October 22, 2007 - 12:30am in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Miscellaneous
Tags: caspian sea, china, coal, economy, europe, geopolitics, iran, kyoto, natural gas, russia, united kingdom, wheat exports [list all tags]

Topics include:

Economy – UK and Europe; Geopolitics - Caspian; Coal / China / Kyoto Protocol; Natural Gas - Iran; Russia - Wheat Exports; ASPO-USA P.O. Conf. – Media Response; Economy - USA

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An insight on US strategic thinking - why so much cowering fear?

Posted by Jerome a Paris on October 5, 2007 - 9:30am in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Policy/Politics
Tags: china, diplomacy, iran, military, original, russia, united states [list all tags]

Earlier last week, I wrote a diary (What the west means and what roles NATO plays therein) that used a recent Financial Times editorial as a springboard for a discussion on what the "West" was, and what the use of NATO was - questions that  left-of-center Europeans tend to see quite differently from most Americans, including left-of-center ones.

The editorial, by a well-respected British pundit, was insightful and interesting, and led me to conclude what many on the European Tribune have long suspected: that NATO is simply an instrument for Europe to support US strategic priorities, and that the "West" exists only when Europe (and in particular France) aligns itself unconditionally on US positions. The UK, as per that senior British commentator, has as its main role that of disrupting and dividing Europe when it is insufficiently respectful of US interests.

Since I'm French, you may be tempted to conclude that this is just sour grapes by a citizen of a supposedly declining country; however, what I found more interesting in that article was the dominant tone of fear - about the west being under siege, and needing security against various threats - in the form of coordinated military power and little else. It was a narrow, downcast, closed vision of the world, with little about values, progress or hope.

The comment thread is worth reading too, and one of the last comments, by Loefing, pointed me to another article on the same topic, this time by a graduate of the US Naval War College, Tony Corn. The article, (The Revolution in Transatlantic Affairs, has the same dominant tone of fear, but a much more detailed examination of the world. Given the credentials of its author, it is likely to have serious influence on the thinking of the strategists in the Pentagon, and it is thus worth deconstructing.

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The Human Cost of Gonu

Posted by Prof. Goose on June 10, 2007 - 10:24am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Tags: bandar abbas, cyclone, cyclone gonu, gas prices, india, iran, mina al fahal, muscat, oil, oil prices, oman, pakistan, peak oil, qalhat, sur, united arab emirates [list all tags]

Today, I wanted to bring to your attention the human cost of Cyclone Gonu on Oman. The area has been getting very little coverage, but from what I can tell, this was quite a tragedy. As newsbriefsOman is reporting:

49 people have been reported killed in the aftermath of Cyclone Gonu and 27 people are still missing, according to Oman News Agency. The Ministry of Information website cannot be reached at the time of writing. I have seen no published estimates of the cost of damage, but it is likely to be huge.

There are three sites that I can find that have any information about what you can do to help these people and/or raise awareness (and even those (that I can find as of today) do not have links to legitimate and/or accessible charities or philanthropy that anyone outside of the area can donate to--anyone have any ideas on this?):

* http://sleeplessinmuscat.blogspot.com/
* http://gonu.blogspot.com/ (created by the founder of Sleepless in Muscat--but there's nowhere in here to send help)
* http://www.newsbriefsoman.info/ (this one seems to be a news aggregator that existed prior to the storm from someone in Britain)

Please feel free to list other sites, ideas, news and information in the comment thread below.

These people, especially those we of in Oman, look to have suffered greatly from this storm. (We are also hearing that people living on the southern coast of Iran are also in bad shape, but I can't find a site, etc., or much news on them either).

There is nothing wrong with visiting these sites and giving them comfort and leaving them a "Salaam 'alaikum" (which means "peace be unto you"). If you are so inclined, we can certainly at least raise awareness and try to get these people some help.

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Cyclone Gonu Thread 4

Posted by Prof. Goose on June 7, 2007 - 9:22am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: bandar abbas, cyclone, cyclone gonu, gas prices, india, iran, mina al fahal, muscat, oil, oil prices, oman, pakistan, peak oil, qalhat, sur, united arab emirates [list all tags]

As of noon EDT on 6/7, this is the Gonu post of record.

The final models from Chuck Watson of KAC/UCF are in and they are forecasting, based on their damage models, that:

* Qalhat (Sur) LNG terminal: 18 days down time
* Mina al Fahal oil terminal: 14 days down time

(NB: These final damage estimates decreased a bit from initial runs but have been close to these numbers all along--all assume US construction standards.)

Why did we spend so much time on this? As I said before, that answer begins with the fact that the world production of petroleum is plateauing around 85 mbbl/day, so any slight blip in supply or exporting could be quite noticeable on the world markets--as a sizeable portion of the world's petroleum exports go through the Gulf of Oman. This has not changed. Had Gonu remained a more powerful cyclone, because of the lack of supply available to the market I mention above, the scenario could have played out quite differently.

And even so, there are a lot of things we do not know yet. The storm still may have affected petroleum exports from Iran and the UAE for that matter--mainly because of shipping disruptions in the Straits of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman, but there could also be some real effects on infrastructure and assets depending on storm surge, track and landfall--factors we are still learning about.

I am happy that the human and material cost of this storm has been much smaller than we expected to this point. I hope that people do not forget the people whose lives have been changed by this storm...and there are many in Oman and other countries who need our charitable help. I hope that the news continues to be better than we expected--but I still stand by my decision to cover this storm closely on The Oil Drum.

Under the fold (hit "there's more") are links to previous threads and links to all of the resources we used over the course of the coverage of Gonu. We would ask that you deposit new material in this comment thread.

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Cyclone Gonu Thread 3 (Last Updated 10pm EDT, 6/6)

Posted by Prof. Goose on June 6, 2007 - 2:00am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: bandar abbas, cyclone, cyclone gonu, gas prices, india, iran, mina al fahal, muscat, oil, oil prices, oman, pakistan, peak oil, qalhat, sur, united arab emirates [list all tags]

New thread for Cyclone Gonu as of noon EDT, 6/7 can be found here...please put new material in the comment thread there.

Exclusive--Please credit The Oil Drum and Chuck Watson of KAC/UCF. KAC/UCF and Chuck Watson are forecasting, based on their damage models, that the Qalhat (Sur) LNG terminal will be out for 20-30 days and the Mina al Fahal oil terminal will be down for 10-20 days--all of this assuming they are built to US standards. (NB: These damage estimates have decreased a bit since the last model run...and assume US construction standards.)

All tips and resources (*and there are already many down there in earlier threads, let's replicate that here today in the third thread! Thank you!*) welcome in the comment thread below. If you have any insights, please email the editors box with the word GONU in the subject.

Last updated at 10pm EDT, 6/6. This still could be an important event--but we are in a slow news time right now regarding Oman and the area. If you have any insights, please let us know--email us or put them in the comment thread. We're digging on this too...

Here are links to our first Cyclone Gonu Thread (6/4) and our second thread on the same topic (6/5).

Please put all new resources and insights here as of 1am EDT 6/6, but make sure to check out the first two threads as well.

Why might Cyclone Gonu matter? Well, that answer begins with the fact that the world production of petroleum plateauing around 85 mbbl/day, so any slight blip in supply or exporting could be quite noticeable on the world markets--as a sizeable portion of the world's petroleum exports go through the Gulf of Oman.

Particularly, Oman also matters in this because it produces 743,000 bbl/day; Oman is also a net exporter, non-OPEC, whose production peaked earlier in the decade.

Of course, this storm also has the potential to affect petroleum exports from Iran and the UAE for that matter--mainly because of shipping disruptions in the Straits of Hormuz, but there could also be some real effects on infrastructure and assets depending on storm surge, track and landfall. There are also refining and other production assets in Southern Iran that could be affected depending on the strength of Gonu.

Also, click "there's more" below for more graphics, forecasts, and links, and there's much more from our readers in the comment thread as well...

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Cyclone Gonu Thread 2-Muscat and Bandar Abbas now in the projected path of Gonu (updated at 8p EDT)

Posted by Prof. Goose on June 4, 2007 - 5:00pm
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: bandar abbas, cyclone, cyclone gonu, gas prices, india, iran, mina al fahal, muscat, oil, oil prices, oman, pakistan, peak oil, qalhat, sur, united arab emirates [list all tags]

Newest Gonu thread created on the front page with newest information as of noon EDT on 6/7/07--the new link can be found by clicking here or you can also find it by going to the front page of TOD at theoildrum.com, we'll have a link there for the foreseeable future that will take you to our most recent coverage!

KAC/UCF and Chuck Watson are forecasting, based on their damage models, that the Qalhat (Sur) LNG terminal will be out for 20-30 days and the Mina al Fahal oil terminal will be down for 10-20 days--all of this assuming they are built to US standards.

All tips and resources (*and there are already many down there in the first thread, let's replicate that here today in the second thread! Thank you!*) welcome in the comment thread below. If you have any insights, please email the editors box with the word GONU in the subject.

Last updated at 8pm EDT, 6/5.

Here is a link to the first Cyclone Gonu Thread from yesterday. Please put all new resources and insights here as of 7:30am EDT 6/5, but make sure to check out the first thread as well.

Also, click "there's more" below for MUCH more graphics and links, and there's much more from our readers in the comment thread as well...but you are likely to want to go to link noted above for the most recent coverage.

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Cyclone Gonu Thread 1

Posted by Prof. Goose on June 4, 2007 - 8:00am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: cyclone gonu, gas prices, india, iran, oil, oil prices, oman, pakistan, peak oil, united arab emirates [list all tags]

NB: New Thread Created on Front Page at Noon EDT on 6/7, here is a link to our most recent (4th) Gonu thread. The second thread (6/5) can be found here and the third thread can be found here. The most recent thread will always be available at the top of The Oil Drum's front page.

Please put all new resources and insights on Iran/Oman there--but also make sure to scroll through this thread and bring over things we might have missed to the new comment thread.

Exclusive--Please credit THE OIL DRUM and Chuck Watson of KAC/UCF.

KAC/UCF and Chuck Watson are forecasting, based on their damage models, that the Qalhat (Sur) LNG terminal will be out for 20-30 days and the Mina al Fahal oil terminal will be down for 10-15 days--all of this assuming they are built to US standards.

If you have any insights, please email the editors box with the word GONU in the subject.

Last updated at 10:30am EDT.

Why might Gonu matter? Well, that answer begins with the fact that the world production of petroleum plateauing around 85 mbbl/day, any slight blip in supply or exporting could be quite noticeable on the world markets. A sizeable portion of the world's petroleum exports go through the Gulf of Oman.

Particularly, Oman matters in this because it produces 743,000 bbl/day; Oman is also a net exporter, non-OPEC, whose production peaked earlier in the decade. (Thanks to Mike from Green Car Congress for the link.).

Of course, this storm also has the potential to affect Iran, UAE, India, and/or Pakistan for that matter--mainly because of shipping disruptions, but there could be some real effects on infrastructure and assets depending on track and landfall. There are also refining and other production assets in Southern Iran, especially in Chah Bahar.

(One will note, as you explore the old comment thread that many of these possibilities are explored...there's a lot of material that we are still sorting through on Iran, shipping lanes, storm surge, etc.)

Resources put under the fold (hit "There's more" to load).

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The Round-Up: May 24th 2007

Posted by Stoneleigh on May 23, 2007 - 9:59pm in The Oil Drum: Canada
Topic: Site news
Tags: china, gas, gas tax, gasoline, hybrids, iran, nuclear, public transportation, rationing, royalties, uranium [list all tags]

What's the meltdown price for uranium?

Add another certainty to death and taxes: Barring some sort of nuclear catastrophe or an instant, massive influx of new supply, the price of uranium oxide is going to continue its shocking rise for now.

The question for the fissile metal's producers, and for investors seeking to cash in on the gains, is how high can it get before its key nuclear power plant consumers defer plans to add reactors, or try to cut consumption at existing plants, as they wait for much delayed new mine supplies to come on stream and bring the price back down?

Since bottoming out at just $7 (U.S.) a pound in December, 2001, the "yellowcake" spot price has climbed almost exponentially, hitting $40 a pound about a year ago and a startling $120 a pound last month. This means it is very close to shattering the record high of $43 it hit back in 1979, which, adjusted for inflation, is the equivalent of $122.42 today. Already, some producers are predicting it could rise to $250 some time next year.

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