The Oil Drum: Australia/New Zealand

Where are Libya's oil exports headed? Libya is a relatively new country, having declared independence in 1951. For the last 39 years, the country has been ruled by a single man, Colonel Muammar al-Gaddafi. Over the years, the identity of this leader and his exquisite sense of style have mingled with the identity of the country itself. Libya joined OPEC right after its creation, and played a pivotal role in the 1973 oil crisis. For the next three decades, Libya endured tense (and sometimes belligerent) relations with western countries. In recent years, as international oil prices have been rising, Libya has been able to re-institute itself as a reliable partner to the West, taking full advantage of the wealth promised by its still considerable oil resources.

[With Centrica and EDF announcing hefty retail gas price increases in the UK this week, I thought it was worth reposting this story that was first published in December 2007. The follow on story Daddy will the lights be on at Christmas?, is perhaps more pertinent this year than last.]

OECD European gas production looks set to peak in 2008. After that, falling production combined with rising demand will see OECD European gas imports wanting to rise from current 197 BCM per annum to 442 BCM per annum by 2020. Where will this gas come from and how will rising European imports affect N America and the rest of the world?

Figure 1 OECD Europe gas production and conceptual forecast. Click all charts to enlarge

Angola is one of the few oil producing countries with a bright future ahead. Decades of war prevented the country from developing it's energy resources properly, but is now becoming one of the largest world oil exporters in a period of rampant prices. Just as if Fortune decided to compensate Angola for its misfortunes during the XX century. Becoming an OPEC member just recently, Angola is set to build one of the strongest economies in Africa, with its GDP growing over 30% 15% annually (numbers here), one of the highest rates in the world. Hopefully Oil will be just the trigger of a golden era in a country that possesses other important natural resources.

World Oil Exports model as of November 2006. Click to enlarge.

Rising North Sea oil production was a significant factor in keeping oil prices under control in the 1970s, 80s and 90s. Production peaked at 6.4 million barrels per day in 2000 and since then, declining North Sea Oil production is one significant reason that oil prices are now rising exponentially.

The January 2008 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.6 MB, 21 pp).

Figure 1 - World Liquids Fuel Production January 2002 - December 2007

A summary and latest graphics below the fold.

The December edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.6 MB, 21 pp).

Figure 1 - World Liquids Fuel Production January 2002 - November 2007
A summary and latest graphics below the fold.

OECD European gas production looks set to peak in 2008. After that, falling production combined with rising demand will see OECD European gas imports wanting to rise from current 197 BCM per annum to 442 BCM per annum by 2020. Where will this gas come from and how will rising European imports affect N America and the rest of the world?

Figure 1 OECD Europe gas production and conceptual forecast. Click all charts to enlarge

The November edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.5 MB, 21 pp). At the time of writing the latest IEA oil market report had not yet been published which has therefore not been incorporated in the PDF, but it is included in the figures and charts below.

Latest Developments (these include the IEA report which has not been published):

1) Crude Oil - Latest available figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that crude oil production including lease condensates decreased by 706,000 b/d from July to August. Total production in August was estimated at 72.51 million b/d, which is 1.79 million b/d lower than the all time high crude oil production of 74.30 million b/d reached in May 2005.

2) Total liquids - In October world production of total liquids increased by 1.4 million barrels per day from September according to the latest figures of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Resulting in total world liquids production of 86.5 million b/d, which is the all time high maximum liquids production.

The pace of information that comes at you during the ASPO meetings is so intense, and immediate that it is sometimes hard to capture all the information, particularly where it is tabulated data on a slide that is on the screen for only a short time. The organizers have, however, taken pity on the ineptitude of your humble scrivener, and from sometime in the morning (i.e. Saturday) they will have the Powerpoints up on their website . For the full power of the debate you will still, however, have to buy the DVD’s.

I had left you at the end of my earlier post with George Baker reviewing the situation in Mexico. We have seen Cantarell dramatically decline from the point that it was providing more oil than Mexico exported to the United States, to the current position where it produces significantly less. I asked George later about whether, given the choice between reneging on their contracts, and dropping internal use, which they would select. In contrast to Westexas views that countries will always look out for the internal demands first, he expected that they would fulfill their contracts. He was also curious as to why Pemex had installed an FPSO at the Ku Maloob Zaap field, since there is existing infrastructure that should have handled all the product. Mexican deepwater production is likely to come on in 2013, but the issue of cross-border fields has not been addressed.