The Oil Drum: Australia/New Zealand

"Now what is the message there? The message is that there are known "knowns." There are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say there are things that we now know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know. So when we do the best we can and we pull all this information together, and we then say well that's basically what we see as the situation, that is really only the known knowns and the known unknowns. And each year, we discover a few more of those unknown unknowns."

This is a guest post by WebHubbleTelescope.

I find it interesting that much of the mathematics of depletion modeling arises from considerations of basic time-series analysis coupled with useful transforms from signal processing. As a case in point, Khebab has postulated how the idea of loglet theory fits into multi-peak production profiles, which have a close relationship to the practical wavelet theory of signal processing. Similarly, the Oil Shock Model uses the convolution of simple data flow transfer functions that we can also express as cascading infinite impulse response filters acting on a stimulated discovery profile. This enables one to use basic time series techniques to potentially extrapolate future oil production levels, in particular using reserve growth models ala Khebab's HSM or the maturation phase DD. ^[1]

In keeping with this tradition, it turns out that the generalized Dispersive Discovery model fits into a classic canonical mathematical form that makes it very accessible to all sorts of additional time-series and spatial analysis. Actually the transform has existed for a very long while -- just ask the guy to the right.

City Workers Stunned at Oil Gusher in Central Park

Some of the world's most valuable real estate just got a little more valuable to the rest of the world. Today, NYC Parks employees discovered oil seeping to surface through the grass at the Sheep Meadow in Central Park. Upon the discovery, Mayor Bloomberg and Parks Commissioner Adrian Benepe quickly approved some exploratory drilling and geological analysis. The results appear to be very encouraging for anyone worried about gas prices.