The Oil Drum: Australia/New Zealand

The November 2008 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.55 MB, 24 pp).

Figure 1 - World Liquids production from January 2004 to October 2008.

The Oilwatch Monthly is a newsletter that is available free of charge with the latest data on oil supply, demand, oil stocks, spare capacity and exports. Readers who want to receive the Oilwatch Monthly in their e-mail box each month can subscribe at this weblink, by filling in their first name, last name, email adress and selecting the oilwatch monthly in the mailing list box. To finalize your subscription push the 'inschrijven' button below the form.

A summary and latest graphics below the fold.

The October 2008 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.42 MB, 24 pp).

Figure 1 - World Liquids production from January 2004 to September 2008.

A summary and latest graphics below the fold.

We all know that oil prices are lower than they were in the recent past because supply is greater than demand. In fact, OPEC oil ministers are meeting this week to try to fix supply, so it will be more in line with demand.

All of this seems a little strange, though. We are going into the winter months, when demand for oil normally rises because many people around the world heat their homes with oil. We are using somewhat less gasoline in the United States, but apart from the hurricane disruptions, not very much less than earlier this year. While we are going into a recession, it doesn't seem to have hit with full force yet. What other factors may be involved in the current lower prices? In this post, I will discuss factors besides those we usually think of as supply and demand that may be involved.

Figure 1. EIA Chart of WTI oil spot prices - One measure of oil price

In what feels like the middle of a multi-round heavyweight bout, the world financial markets continue to be buffeted tonight, following the recent trend of lower equities, stronger dollar (vs Euro, SF and Sterling), sinking energy and commodities prices and considerably less confidence in the overall system than in weeks prior. Theoildrum.com has historically focused on the biophysical aspects of a world economy based on energy (and occasionally the human aspects that impact energy demand). Most research here attempts to predict what world oil and gas production might look like in a future where depletion inexorably overtakes technology, and the costs of procuring large amounts of quality fuels continue to increase. However, the spiralling of recent events make it likely that, at least for a time, be it a week - or several years - oil and gas depletion might be more than offset by the reduction in demand due to the manifold implications of the reduction in global financial leverage and resulting credit contractions and dislocations in the real economy. The linkages between finance and energy are becoming more direct, but I'm quite certain there are many under the surface we are yet unaware of.

Below are a few article links followed by some open ended questions. Please deposit data, charts and links of relevance.

Next month is the ASPO conference in Sacramento CA. Nate Hagens will be one of the speakers in the plenary (as well as on the Sunday TOD breakout panels). Here is a video of the talk he gave last year at the international ASPO VI venue in Cork Ireland. The speech covered net energy, energy properties and externalities on the supply side and addiction, relative fitness and steep discount rates from an evolutionary perspective on the demand side. Here is a link to the slides themselves, (which aren't fully shown at times on the video).

An important Dutch energy institute, the Clingendael International Energy Program (CIEP), recently published a report that confirms most of the conclusions about the oil market reached over the years at the oildrum. That the floor price of oil is now 110 dollars per barrel, that supply will not rise beyond 100-105 million b/d in the coming decades, that there will be an oil supply constraint for most of the next decade, that there are insufficient quantities of alternative fuels available and that thus demand destruction is inevitable. CIEP is especially important because it is endorsed by amongst others BP, Shell Netherlands, Total E&P Netherlands, three Dutch Ministries, Wintershall, Vopak Oil Europe Middle East and several Dutch energy companies. The report in english can be downloaded here (PDF 2.8 megabytes, 108 pages).

'This outlook of new scarcity is now exacerbated by the fact that not only available supply will determine what amount of demand can be satisfied; it will also bring about a new allocation of the available oil due to a lack of adequate supply growth compared with demand. In practice this means that demand rationing will be required in the OECD countries and particularly in the US, in order to accommodate growth in the newly developing countries, notably China and India. Different fuel prices for end-consumers in the different countries will be the dominant factor behind this ‘oil redistribution’. (emphasis mine)

We've heard all sorts of different ideas on how to ease the pain at the pump this Summer for motorists. The Bush administration has argued for OPEC to increase production and Congress to ease restrictions on drilling. In reply Congress wants to sue OPEC over high prices and tax oil company's windfall profits. Senators Clinton and McCain have called for holiday for the Federal gas tax. All of these various ideas have made a lot of headlines, but none of this has done a drop of good so far.

More long term, price induced demand destruction will take hold and people are making better decisions factoring in oil price - they are buying smaller cars and not snapping up McMansions in the hinterland, but with oil near $140/barrel right now what's the short term answer?

The secret answer to curbing high oil prices in a supply constrained world that no one seems to be talking about is for buyers to go on strike. And no, I'm not talking about a meaningless "Don't fill up on this day" but keep driving.

My back of the envelope estimate is that if there were a concerted effort by the major economies (hello G8 ministers meeting in Japan) to have demand pulled back sharply (10-15%) over the Summer, we could see oil prices go down fairly rapidly.

What prospects do people think there is of it? Would it be politically feasible? How much would demand need to decline to make a substantial impact of oil prices?

(New readers, click "there's more" below for the whole article...)

Global Total Liquids production and oil price, January 2002 to present. Production data from the IEA, data files supplied by Rembrandt Koppelaar. Monthly average WTI oil prices from Economagic.

With oil reaching $135 / barrel, Oil Drum readership exceeding 30,000 unique visitors per day and many wild stories circulating in the MSM as to why oil prices are so high this post strives to explain why oil prices are rising exponentially:

• Supply and demand
• Decline of older fields
• Declining net energy and energy density
• New mega-projects
• OPEC spare capacity
• Peak exports

Executive Summary

1. World total liquids production (Fig 1) remains on a peak plateau since 2006 and is forecast to fall off this peak plateau in 2009. Increasing numbers of oil experts are forecasting impending peak production plateaus. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the current peak production of 87.2 mbd occurred on January 2008. As long as demand continues increasing then prices will continue increasing.
   

2. Forecast world crude oil and lease condensate (C&C) production retains its 2005 peak (Fig 2). The forecast to 2100 shows declining C&C production, using a bottom up forecast to 2012 (Fig 3). The forecast to 2012 shows a slight decline to 2009, followed by a 3%/yr decline rate to 2012.
   

3. World oil discovery rates peaked in 1965 (Fig 4) and production has exceeded discovery for every year since the mid 1980s. Discoverable reserves in giant fields also peaked during the mid 1960s (Fig 5). The time lag between world peak discovery in 1965 and world peak production in 2005 of 40 years is similar to the time lag of 42 years for the USA Lower 48 (Fig 6).
   

4. World C&C year on year production changes to October 2007 and November 2007 (Figs 7 and 8) show significant declines for Mexico, North Sea and Saudi Arabia and significant increases for Russia, Azerbaijan and Angola. As Russia is likely to be on a production plateau and Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE have probably passed peak production, the world C&C production will continue to decline slowly.
   

5. Saudi Arabia retains its 2005 C&C peak (Fig 10), which is the same as the peak year for world C&C (Fig 2). Saudi Arabia C&C production has dropped to 9.0 mbd which is 0.6 mbd less than its peak in 2005. It is now almost a certainty that Saudi Arabia passed peak C&C production of 9.6 mbd in 2005 (Figs 9 and 10).
   

6. Kuwait retains its 2006 minor C&C peak (Fig 12). Kuwait C&C production has now dropped to 2.5 mbd which is less than its peak in 2006. There is a strong likelihood that Kuwait has passed its minor 2006 peak (Figs 11 and 12). Kuwait’s major peak was 3.3 mbd in 1972.
   

7. UAE retains its 2006 C&C peak (Fig 14). UAE C&C production has now dropped to 2.6 mbd, adjusted for maintenance, which is just less than its peak in 2006. There is a reasonable likelihood that UAE passed its 2006 peak (Figs 13 and 14).
   

8. World natural gas plant liquids is forecast to increase due mainly to new OPEC projects (Fig 15). World ethanol and XTL production is forecast to almost double by 2012 (Fig 16). World processing gains are forecast to decline slowly to 2012 (Fig 17).

ARE WE ADDICTED TO OIL?

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