The Bullroarer - Thursday 27th May 2010

The Australian - Treasury banks on an endless growth from China

THE most worrying aspect of Treasury's push for a resource rent tax is that it is based on a conviction that the boom will last for decades.
The rise of China and India is seen as a kind of manifest destiny that will lift Australia's terms of trade permanently higher.

Otago Daily Times - Why Dunedin needs community boards for Hills, Cargill and South Dunedin

Those aware of the problems of our present unsustainable way of life know we are not only facing peak oil - we are facing peak everything. When we really, really, really needed a good stockpile of collective resources to help anticipate these problems and development alternative and parallel systems, instead we have recently had utterly folly-ridden councils which have put us up to our eyeballs in debt.

The Mercury - Molle St loses lane to cyclists

HOBART motorists are about to lose another lane to the bike boom.

The council plans to turn one lane of busy Molle St over to cyclists as a new survey has found rider numbers soaring.

A national census of cycling -- the "Super Tuesday" count -- to be released this week is expected to show cyclist numbers in Hobart has almost doubled in two years.

The surge is so great Hobart City Council has set up a real-time traffic monitoring system to check numbers on the city's major cycling route.

ABC - Pacific climate change could drive droughts

Climate scientists are concerned a rise in temperature in the Pacific region due to climate change, could increase droughts in Australia.

ABC - Australia must do more to curb emissions: report

A new report commissioned by The Climate Institute says Australia's carbon pollution will continue to soar without price signals to make companies take responsibility for their emissions.

Stuff.co.nz - Fuel from sewage plant hums

A new plant that turns plastic, food scraps and even human waste into fuel is humming away on the Kapiti Coast.

Sydney Morning Herald - Underwater lab the first to plot impact of climate change on reefs

ON AN idyllic coral atoll just a two-hour boat ride from Queensland's Gladstone Harbour, out past the endless line of tankers queued to load coal for export, a half-dozen scientists work frantically against the tide.

Their objective? To explore the consequences of rising atmospheric carbon - which evidence overwhelmingly attributes to the burning of coal and other fossil fuels - on the delicate chemistry of the reef and the creatures living there.

scoop.co.nz - Opinions divided on New Zealand's energy future

Ministry of Economic Development (MED) forecasts about the energy sources and fuels that will power New Zealand into the future were aired at the Do Something! forum sponsored by HumanFM at Victoria University last night – but opinions on the basis for and realistic achievability of future scenarios were divided.

Many participants challenged the MED’s heavy reliance on optimistic projections by the International Energy Agency (IEA) – primarily because of growing evidence that we are now well and truly in a peak oil era and need to be planning for a wider set of scenarios to change our economic and private ways of life.

Armidale Express - A convenient time to hear about climate change

Dr Robyn Gunning, a volunteer with the Australian branch of Al Gore’s climate change leadership program, will be the next guest speaker at the popular monthly series of forums presented by Sustainable Living Armidale (SLA).

Otago Daily Time - Palm oil advocate points finger at NZ

Delegates to an international "sustainability conference" being staged in Malaysia by the palm oil industry have been told protests that the oil is not sufficiently "green" should also be targeting New Zealand and Australia because their farmed livestock is pouring out greenhouse gas emissions.
"Malaysia and Indonesia, will have to stop importing beef and lamb products from Australia and New Zealand as these animals emit methane from their gut which is a potent greenhouse gas which also causes global warming," said Malaysian Palm Oil Council chief executive Dr Yusof Basiron.

The Australian - Energy sector rages over 'flawed' figures

HAVING angered the resources industry with its new tax plan, the Rudd government has now upset Australia's energy suppliers with claims it made about them while defending itself against the irate miners.

Energy Supply Association of Australia chief executive Brad Page said his members were disappointed by suggestions that they were not paying their proper share of tax.

ABC - Oil and gas industry to be hit by new tax

Yesterday, the Federal Government has confirmed that Australia's biggest oil and gas project, the North-West shelf project, will be covered by the tax.

The project, in WA's Pilbara region, produces more than 40 per cent of Australia's oil and gas and has been WA's largest supplier of domestic gas for more than 25 years.

It is owned by Woodside and several joint venture partners who are now in talks with the government to try to find out how hard the tax will hit them.

NineMSN - Economy Watch: Oz Leading Index Surges

Westpac and the Melbourne Institute each month publish a leading economic index from two months prior, which provides a guide to GDP expectations three to nine months hence. Factors assessed include commodity prices, stock prices, money supply, corporate profits, productivity and dwelling approvals, along with US industrial production, among others.

In March, the index made a huge jump to 8.7%. What this effectively implies is Australia's GDP growth will reach 8.7% before year-end. The jump represents a big gap to the long term trend of 3%.

[.....]

Private engineering work declined by 3.4% in the quarter, but both ANZ and Westpac suggest the future looks particularly bright. The mining and energy sectors are where most of the growth will come from, despite RSPT fears. Of particular note is the huge Gorgon LNG project which should hit the numbers in the June quarter.

National Business Review (NZ) - New programme to encourage oil and gas exploration

A new $7.6 million programme to promote oil and gas exploration around New Zealand has been announced by the government.

Energy Minister Gerry Brownlee said today Crown Minerals had contracted GNS Science to deliver a number of projects focused on improving knowledge of New Zealand's petroleum potential.

Molle St Hobart appears to have about a 1:5 gradient in the upper stretch. Hope they allowed wobble room for pushies standing on the pedals. It seems cyclists from well-to-do higher parts of the inner city get looked after. What about battlers with a 10+ km long commute from the suburbs?

I have to agree on Treasury's blind spot over Asian growth. It is conjectured China's domestic coal production will peak in 2015.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_coal
China burns 3 bn tonnes a year but Australia's exports to all countries are just 262 Mt. Could explain big holes in the Barrier Reef trying to keep the coal ships moving. Perhaps the US could export more coal to China or better still keep the jobs at home. I believe India's steel industry is now reliant on NSW/Qld coking coal. Therefore there could be an Asian coal supply shortage unless new sources are opened up. Factor that in with Peak Oil and I think the good times could end sooner than we realise.

Interesting points Boof.

China burns 3 bn tonnes a year but Australia's exports to all countries are just 262 Mt. Could explain big holes in the Barrier Reef trying to keep the coal ships moving. Perhaps the US could export more coal to China or better still keep the jobs at home. I believe India's steel industry is now reliant on NSW/Qld coking coal. Therefore there could be an Asian coal supply shortage unless new sources are opened up. Factor that in with Peak Oil and I think the good times could end sooner than we realise.

Certainly the good times could endo for any country that is not exporting coal. I have a more-than-passing interest in the question "What happens to the countries that do export coal?"

Since China needs 12X as much coal as Australia exports I think the price of local coal will keep increasing for a year or two. I believe thermal coal ex Newcastle is about $100/t and coking coal ~$200/t, well up from 2009. However if China experiences an energy bottleneck it seems equally possible demand could slow ie Treasury has got it wrong. I understand Asian steel makers can get coking coal from South Africa while alternative thermal coal exporters Indonesia and Vietnam may not be able to supply the quantity and quality needed.

I think Global Peak Oil plus North Asia Peak Coal could have a major knock on effect. China's cheap labour advantage will be partly negated by higher shipping and energy costs even without carbon tariffs. Demand for other minerals like iron ore will slide. The big slowdown could happen within five years.

"Malaysia and Indonesia, will have to stop importing beef and lamb products from Australia and New Zealand as these animals emit methane from their gut which is a potent greenhouse gas which also causes global warming..."

Maybe we could ship them some low-emission Roo...

...Assuming there's no problem making it "Halal"...
;-)

In all likelihood it IS halal so long as it is dispatched 'correctly'.
I wonder if it's 'Kosher' ... ;-)