Resource Super Profits Tax



Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner wrote about the Federal Government's new resource super profits tax in The Age this week:

Throughout our European history, the question of how to share the benefits of this wealth has dominated politics. From the battles between squatters and selectors in the 1860s, to the introduction of tariff protection and industrial arbitration, to the internationalisation of the economy, distributing the proceeds of our resource endowment has been a central political theme. Governments have to ensure the benefits are more widely and equitably shared.

This is the central reason the Rudd government is introducing a resource super profits tax. The world is paying a lot more for our resources, but this isn't being fully reflected in returns to Australians. Sure, we are already benefiting from the resources boom, but as the owners of the resources being exploited, we should be benefiting a lot more. And the boom has adverse side-effects for other sectors of the economy which we need to offset. It sucks capital and labour away from other activity, and drives up the value of the Australian dollar, making other sectors less internationally competitive.

The key question is how we extract our dividend and what we do with it. The Howard government largely squandered the dividends it received from the earlier phase of the mining boom. The Rudd government doesn't intend to make the same mistake.

The proceeds of the resource super profits tax are dedicated to lifting wealth creation across the economy, overwhelmingly through reductions in other taxes.

Company tax will be cut to 28 per cent, with an earlier introduction date for small business. The amount of capital spending small businesses can write off immediately for tax purposes will jump from $1000 to $5000. A resource exploration rebate will improve the tax treatment of mineral exploration. The resource super profits tax will be designed in such a way failed ventures can ultimately access a tax benefit, thus reducing the risk when companies decide whether or not to proceed with a project.

The government will also provide substantial extra infrastructure funding to help relieve the infrastructure pressures in resources states.

Resource companies have been loudly critical this week, but that doesn't mean the policy is bad.

From a fairly conventional point of view, good resource policy should help reduce risk for resource companies by lowering the tax take when resource prices are low and returns are poor or when exploration fails. Taxes should take the most when prices are high and companies are generating the highest profits. Resource companies will make their investment decisions with a large emphasis on what the outcome would be in low resource price scenarios, with much less emphasis on how a project looks at high resource prices.

Thus, if the tax is well designed, it may not actually result in many projects being cancelled as the low end outcome for the companies may not have changed signficantly. You can still expect them to scream, as they would like the super profits they are used to when they are available, but the reality may be that decisions are not changed all that much. You can expect plenty of propaganda attributing any cancelled project in the next twelve months to be attributed to the new tax, regardless of whatever myriad other factors may have been the primary cause.

Of course, all this is only true if the tax has been well designed, which is not out of the question but would be a significant break with tradition. I'm hoping that's where you the reader will come in.. what do you know about the details of the new tax? Has the Government got it right this time, returning profits to the people while minimising the impact on company investment decisions?

Of course, there is a more radical view that we should tax resource companies much more highly and leave more of our resources in the ground for future generations, but you're not going to hear that as Labour or Liberal policy anytime soon.

My opinion has ebbed and flowed this week on whether this is a good idea or not. I'm all for Aussie mining to benefit Aussies but is tax the only way that we benefit. Much of this tax is going to be distributed to super funds but the miners already pay a lot of dividends to Aussie super funds so this seems to be complicating what is happening already.

Personally, I don't think Rudd has the political capital to make it happen. Too many backflips and debacles and he is way too sensitive to the opinion polls to stick with something that might get very unpopoular once the miners drop $50 million into an ad campaign to get rid of him. I thought Howard was past his used by date and the Liberal party was pretty gutless in not tapping him on the shoulder at the 10 year mark and giving Costello a go. They deserved what they got in 2007. But Rudd is just completely out of control and is too wedded to the daily spin cycle to be trusted with long term decision making or implementation. I dislike Abbott, but at least I know in advance what I'm going to get. We might have to have three years of his rubbish before Gillard gets a go. But I doubt very much that the miners tax will ever make it to the floor of the parliament.

I can't imagine this getting passed - and I can't understand why Rudd is even attempting it - over the past couple of months he has started to look like he wants to lose the election.

Is this perhaps a backdoor ETS?
Perhaps because the mining industry stood together against the ETS the Govt. is going to tax them all instead of just the coal, gas and oil industries?

In any case I am largely for it. This is a commonwealth after all and there is no pressing reason to extract all the minerals in the lifetimes of the mining fat cats (and they were fat!) I saw protesting on TV.

The other funny thing was that Canadian PR Spiv I heard on the radio saying this would be great for Canada. Well, Canada produces 10% of the Iron Ore that Australia (#2 producer after China) does... so... I think he was actually hired by Australian Miners to 'put the fear of Vulcan' into the Govt

For all the scare tactics, minerals can only be mined where they occur. Not where we wish they occurred!

I suspect the cracks are already showing in the mining industries 'united front' with the suggestion that different resources be taxed at different rates... which is also not a bad idea.

The point made above about the A$ is also interesting.
I have 2 brothers whose primary industry exports are sensitive to a high Australian dollar, so I was interested to hear that the Govt. might be worried that demand for the A$ (ie a strong dollar) will decimate what remains of our manufacturing industries and also other primary industries. The mining industry might contribute a great deal of $ to Govt revenue but they don't directly employ that many people. And unemployed people are the ones who march in the streets and vote against the Govt.

How many friends does the mining industry have?
Fat cat execs on TV don't make my heart swell with compassion.
Expect to see a better PR front with "working families" praising the mining industry as a celebration of the struggling individual, the digger spirit (TM)and 'this is what we fought for at Gallipoli' (TM) blah blah ...

http://thecuriousmail.files.wordpress.com/2009/10/clive-palmer.jpg

This one in particular got up my nose.

I wonder if an ALP-Greens coalition is on the cards by year's end. If so it may be able to get tough legislation through even when Rudd gets cold feet. However this hasn't happened yet in Tasmania with a newly promoted Greens MP abandoning his self-drive Prius in favour of a chauffeur driven Statesman as befits a Minister.

We need to remember that iron ore exported from WA generates a large tonnage of CO2, possibly meeting up with NSW or Qld coking coal in northern hemisphere steel mills. Iron ore seems unlikely to run out anytime soon but Australia is certainly complicit in offshore GHGs. Therefore the resources tax could be regarded as a carbon tax by proxy.

I suspect Sen. Joyce will soon point out that Chinese owned mines can transfer out minerals at an artificially low price, thereby avoiding 'super profits'. The Chinese get the minerals and the jobs and we get holes in the ground.

If in fact other countries can fill the gap then we have at least conserved the resource for a later day. I can't say if the 40% is right but the principle seems sound. I suspect a watered down form will get through the next parliament whatever parties are in power.

Transfer pricing is certainly a problem but any tax on profits before repatriation will encourage that. Does anybody know just what "super-profits" means anyway?

There are some interesting insights on the ABC Insiders this morning - especially comparison with the long-standing petroleum scheme which makes me feel more equitable towards it... But certainly the announcement of the scheme could have been handled much better
(Or was that designed to lay a smokescreen for the shelving of the ETS???)
;-)

http://www.abc.net.au/insiders/ and click the video on the menu top right "Politics Overcomplicating Mining Supertax"

The underlying assumption in the fear that investment will be curtailed is that Growth is Good. (Or is that Greed is Good?)

Slowing down will give us a bit more wriggle room with regard to climate change and peak oil.

So I am in favor of a huge tax.
A side benefit is that I won't have to pay so much for the bailouts.

Opinion warning! I think that the tax office knows just how much spare cash Joe Punter has, and takes it off him to ensure he has to haul his sorry carcase off to work on Monday morning.

Therefore the bailouts/"quantitative easing" cannot be squeezed out of the taxpayer, and must come from the only real money in town. The miners. Go Kev.

A rent tax does have solid economic credentials. Non renewable resources production should be taxed, with the proceeds hypothecated to the creation of capital assets that "replace" the non renewable resources over the period they are extracted. That is the theory. Even if it was watered down to "infrastructure" - say a new national high speed rail network, or a new national smart grid and intensive wind farm construction or something else more or equally worthy it may be justified. I bet all the money will just go into the current account to be spent on whatever wacky scheme comes next (naturally based on focus group wish lists).

I never was all that enamoured with KRudd. All the deceit of Blair but none of the charm. Unacceptable as he is, Abbott is so much worse. Why does our politics have to be a race for the bottom? It is Green for me and was last election too. A pox on both their houses. As I read somewhere else they are both turds. Just different shades of brown.

Ayan Rand, turn in your grave.
You had me sucked in there for a while.
But I don't take advice from people who smoke.

Should I weep for Likkle Ikkle because he will not be twice as rich as he is now?
Starvation would do him the world of good.
There is no danger of Likkle Ikkle putting all this wealth to good use.

Leave it in the ground.
The kids can have it.

Good article in The Age pointing out the enormous subsidies and tax credits the mining industry gets, worth some $4-$5 billion annually. One particularly interesting piece of information,

"Australian Bureau of Statistics figures show that, while most industries have become more energy efficient over the past three decades, the mining industry has become less so. It takes twice the energy to get a dollar's worth of minerals out of the ground today as it did 30 years ago."

Though the mining industry gets to claim back the fuel excise, they still have to pay for the fuel itself, so presumably they're not burning it for the hell of it. More energy for a dollar's worth of resource... sounds like they're working on poorer and harder to extract ores... peak minerals?

Yeah I read that article this morning.

Miners strangely silent on the billions they reap in tax credits

A billion or two for fuel, a billion for exploration, a billion for free pollution and a couple of hundred million for subsidised science . . . pretty soon we're talking real money.

And that's before we've even begun to talk about government-provided roads, rail, ports, electricity networks and other infrastructure.

There was a public lecture at the CSIRO in Hobart today by Dr Alex Wonhas (Director Energy Transformed) on what he termed Australias Energy Revolution.

The aim of this revolution is how to increase GDP while decreasing CO2. But according to one of the graphs he showed (modelled results) we are not going to decrrease the number of electrons moved. IE although the aim is to decrease coal use (and CO2 emmissions) the projection was for overall energy consumption to increase. So the aim of this CSIRO flagship is to provide enabling technology to continue BAU. That's my read.

He considers Wind and Solar Thermal as the big renewable replacement energy producers in the short term followed by Geothermal later. Also, how to balance load and minimize domestic energy consumption? One of their ideas is smart appliances. He showed a slide of some fridges that are supposed to cleverly balance power consumption depending on how much power is available from roof top solar. I wondered (but didn't ask) how long it would take to save the same amount of energy embodied in the over engineered (to my mind) electronics attached to these things? Wouldn't it be easier to make them usb compatible and your PC controls it. Do we really need to have a PC on every appliance?

Carbon Capture and Storage gets a Guernsey... although this prompted a question about its being unproven technology. He responded that so was Geothermal and that in any case the significant amount of investment in it (CCS) should make it work. He seemed confidant that if enough money was spent it could work.

Someone asked about Nuclear and he made some quip about Australia being like a Vegan working in an Abattoir, before stating that at present it was politically unpalatable.

General assessment of the talk, a bit of nice PR from Limestone Avenue (IE CSIRO Corporate).
I was expecting a longer more technical talk.

Putting a controller on a fridge should not be as complicated as installing a whole PC. There are plenty of samll cheap PLCs out there that have comms capability that could do the same thing. A dedicated controller could be built onto a very small card I would imagine. I beleive that google is is working with GE to develop the smart grid standards that will be needed for these things to talk to each other. I would imagine it will have to be a very simple but secure protocol to make it cheap enough to roll out. The problem with any complex systems however is that it will be susceptible to mischief makers.

Geothermal is unproven?

I guess he never heard of Kenya, NZ, Iceland...

I suppose "hot dry rock" geothermal is not quite commercial yet, but we are getting up a head of steam and appear to have enormous potential.

There's even a geothermal hotspot in the Hunter Valley right next to all the existing grid switchgear!

Whereas CCS can be demonstrated but simply doesn't sound scalable to me. Amongst its many problems is that CO2 molecules are three times bigger than CH4 (natural gas) and therefore one can't even put back a third of the Carbon that came out of an old natural gas reservoir. - Let alone the CO2 from extra coal...

I should have been more specific, he was referring to the hot dry rocks approach.

In a race between hot rocks and CCS, I think hot rocks will probably win. Hot rocks really 'only' has to work out how to create the interface with the hot rocks. CCS has to develop the capture part from the stack AND the disposal part.

As soon as the time comes to collect this planned tax, the bottom will have fallen out of mineral prices.

In view of this, it is rather ironic to watch Rudd & Co. planning grandiose current and recurring expenditure based upon something that simply will not be there.

In order to understand this latest wheeze, it is necessary of to put it into the context of doing anything to try to prevent the property market from crashing. Wealth-creation and employment should be taxed directly or indirectly to the greatest extent possible - but not property speculation.

Boy, have I seem this bad movie repeatedly elsewhere!