The Bullroarer - Saturday 17th April 2010

As I have mentioned, I am currently creating a "Holiday Retreat" (Peak Oil contingency), for a small community of people who will enjoy a comparatively simple, off-grid "holiday" should it become necessary. The work associated with this and the off-grid nature of the location may make Bullroarers a little bit unpredictable. For those interested in the practical issues associated with deciding on location, building a retreat, etc, I intend to update my progress on my Blog, but that too may be unpredictable.

News.com.au - Oil crunch by 2012, say military experts

- US military predicts "energy crunch"
- Shortage of refining capacity, engineers
- Demand could outstrip supply by 2012

RISING oil prices pose a grave threat to global economic recovery, according to some economists.

Thus it was sobering this week to read that the US military has warned the world faces a "severe energy crunch" and looming oil shortages.

According to a Joint Operating Environment report from the US Joint Forces Command, "a severe energy crunch is inevitable without a massive expansion of production and refining capacity".

Scoop.co.nz - Understanding Supply Side Capitalism

Yet we know from people like George Gilder that we have nothing to worry about when it comes to Peak Gold or Peak Oil because of supply side economics. Thanks to limitless imagination there is technology to extract as little as 3 parts gold per million from gold ore. No worries there is an almost unlimited amount of Gold dissolved in the Oceans and in common dirt and we know, thanks to George Gilder, that the basic laws of physics have no meaning thanks to supply side economics. Just because it costs more energy than the gold is worth to extract it from low grade ores is not a barrier; not when we have the imagination of Ronald Reagan, Arthur Laffer and George Gilder to guide us!

Let me give you another easy example of how supply side economics can solve the energy crisis. As you know, money is made out of paper and ink. Let's give everyone the freedom to print money. Think about it, it's the ideal supply side scenario, turning paper and ink directly into money. We know from Gilder that the supply of paper and ink would be inexhaustible due to "human will and imagination" and so capital would be too; after all we are printing the capital! Everyone could print money as fast as they wanted and we would never run out of materials or the capital to buy it with. Then, when we have enough paper money we can burn it for limitless energy.

Thanks to George Gilder we know the materialistic fallacy of conservation; we know conservation is an illusion.

Perth Now - Demand for oil to outstrip supply within two years

RISING oil prices pose a grave threat to global economic recovery, according to some experts.
The fear has been expressed by the US military and by the automobile industry.

This week in Perth, Volvo's head of product planning, Lex Kerssemakers, said "we all know that oil is running out''.

Gisborne Herald - Oil production . . . Britain’s crude awakening

It came as a surprise that last month Britain’s Energy Minister summoned a meeting of business leaders to discuss the Government’s response to a decline in global oil production should it actually be imminent.

Online Opinion - Australia stuck in the middle

There is a lot of talk right now about Big Australia and the boom that will just go on and on and how we’ll all be rich. And how we need ever more people to fill the skills gap and achieve optimal economies of scale and even avoid invasion.

All this ignores a whole raft of problems currently emerging - like global warming, peak oil, a shaky finance system yet to be fixed, and overall lower growth rates due to the debt caused by the global economic crisis - that will radically impact on Australia’s future prospects.

But here I want to comment on another issue: the coming contest for global primacy between the US and China.

Green Blorge - Genencor and Goodyear create tires from BioIsoprene

Creating products made with sustainable renewable resources only makes sense. Whenever you think that peak oil is or may be reached, creating solutions like BioIsoprene for that inevitability will ensure a seamless transition into a petroleum-free world

The Australian - Changing fortunes

In other words, goodbye to all that. But the book's title puts this as a question. That is, neo-liberalism -- as in markets and individuals rule, OK? -- may have failed but does that mean it has been killed off?

Radio NZ - Oil drillers draw blank at Taranaki Basin site

New Zealand Oil & Gas has not found any oil after drilling part of the formation at its Hoki site, in the offshore Taranaki Basin.

NZ Herald - Climate scientists 'naive'

The Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia was "ill-prepared for being the focus of public attention" when sceptics began to question its figures on climate change, according to an independent inquiry.

As well as taking issue with the researchers' record keeping, the panel of experts said better statistical methods should have been used to interpret the "messy" data on world temperatures.

But there was no evidence of "deliberate scientific malpractice", meaning the conclusion that mankind was causing global warming was probably correct.

The Australian - The true nature of sceptics

There can be no freedom of thought without the right to be sceptical. Which is why the demonisation of the sceptic does not simply reflect a tendency towards polemical excess but an attack on human inquiry

SMH - Hockey hot and cold on climate change action

Hockey, who is positioning himself as a future liberal leader with a series of broader speeches, is a mass of contradictions on the subject of climate change and what to do about it.

Taranaki Daily News - Iron in the fire

Ready to think big? Well here is one project you won't have heard about. Forget coal, gold and oil, New Zealand's traditional resource strengths. Forget even the rare earth metals that Energy and Resources Minister Gerry Brownlee was recently getting his tongue in a twist about when proposing the opening up of Schedule Four conservation land for possible mining.

Instead, think iron. Think a $30 billion a year, country- transforming, export business.

Daily Advertiser - Gas customers to be slugged extra $100

AFTER a huge rise in NSW electricity prices, it is expected gas bills will also increase.

Residents could be paying an additional cost of up to $100 over three years under proposed increases from the Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal (IPART) after it released a draft determination into gas prices yesterday.

The Australian - Traffic snarl fuels fears over exploding population

People are asking how bad things will get when our numbers hit 36 million
PROPONENTS of chaos theory would have enjoyed being in Sydney this week, where an unremarkable collision between two trucks generated a spirited public discussion about population policy

News.com.au - $3000 budget pain expected to be added to family costs by next year

_ $3000 could be added to bills by next year
_ Home loans adding most cost
_ Rates could reach 5.25 per cent next year

NEW South Wales families will have to find an extra $3000 in their annual budgets by the middle of next year as the soaring cost of living consumes an additional three weeks of the average worker's wage.

The pain, in the main, will be inflicted by heftier home loan repayments and utilities bills - gas being the latest.

The Australian - Barnett urges Texas oil and gas barons to climb aboard

PREMIER Colin Barnett has told Texan oil and gas leaders that Western Australia is the "mining capital of the world" and the home of "mega-projects" as he touts for investment during a 10-day US tour.

...Bio-Isoprene?

Hmm - could it be that they've re-discovered the rubber tree?
(Turns sunshine plus CO2 into a useful industrial material and also creates oxygen and indigenous employment. ...Or would that be too simple?)

Also we should hardly be surprised that an oil-patch named "Hoki" turned out to be hokey!
;-)
Oh well, the Kiwis may be getting into the iron-sand business instead.
(Or at least the Maori will; last time I checked, they own the seabed!)

"Oil crunch by 2012, say military experts" <-- My fourth letter to the Editor in a week, and the fourth one to be ignored. It'll still get published, though. That's what blogs are for. ;)

"The Australian - The true nature of sceptics" <-- Scepticism is indeed necessary to free debate, but outright denialism deserves scorn, at the very least. The meaning behind words changes over time (in English, 'apple' apparently meant what 'fruit' does now), so the meaning behind 'sceptic' (to be doubtful of an argument), in the context of Climate Change, has become 'denier' (refuses to accept an argument supported by empirical observation). To call someone a 'Climate Change Sceptic' is to actually say they are 'Climate Change Deniers'. But don't hold your breath waiting for The Oz to note the difference. As far as The Oz is concerned, The Oz will state that AGCC simply isn't happening (it's The Sun. Damn you, Ra!), that Loopy Lord Monkton has all the answers, and that Tony 'Dr. No' Abbott is on the right track.

"Oil crunch by 2012, say military experts" <-- My fourth letter to the Editor in a week, and the fourth one to be ignored. It'll still get published, though. That's what blogs are for. ;)

Aaaaand my online comment hasn't been published, either.

You may as well give it a run here, Bel.
;-)

Re the Online Opinion article by Peter McMahon on China and the US and how it may affect Australia.

There seems to be a propensity in the Austalian unintelligentsia to overestimate the strength of China and underestimate the ability of the US to work through it's present problems and set itself on a more sustainable path,difficult as that will be.The US is in a fundamentally much stronger position than China.Their much lower population(still too high)is an asset,not a liability.They have relatively secure borders and have significant allies worldwide.The US still has immense natural resources and a population with the skills to re-establish a manufacturing sector so foolishly run down by globalization.There are many other positives.

To suggest that the US military will decline is ridiculous.Given the geopolitical situation that would be suicide.I expect(and hope for) a rethinking of priorities and a withdrawal from some areas.Their military,particularly the Army,is overextended and they know it.

China,by contrast,is a disaster waiting to happen.Their massive population overshoot,environmental destruction and ethnic fractures are the primary causes.The frenetic growth which the CCP has been pushing is simply the last card to play to prevent the meltdown.There are many other areas of weakness.

Australia is a minnow in all this but we should cease setting ourselves up for a fall which has been the effect of the policies of successive governments.To rely on Quarry Australia and increase immigration to maintain our living standards is beyond absurd.We should be aiming at stabilizing population at the present level in the short term,reduce exports of valuable fossil fuels like LNG,take positive steps to increase our manufacturing ability and substitute nuclear for coal.

There are many other initiatives which must be undertaken if we are to have a secure and sustainable Australia.They will all require government action and a change in the political culture.Forget private industry leading the way.They are only interested in profits,and short term ones at that.
Governments must lead,not react with short term thinking to stimuli.Globalization and free trade are dead,that just hasn't become obvious to most people yet.

As for defence,it has always been up to Australia as a nation to look after our own requirements outside of major geopolitical upheavals.The fact the every government since WW 2 has taken shortcuts in this vital area is just another illustration as to how poorly served we have been by our governing classes.We need to maintain our alliance with the US (excluding madcap adventures like Iraq and Afghanistan)but increase our effective defence spending,particularly in the Navy.

If we take the sensible road it will mean a reduction in the money available for consumer luxuries - just what the doctor ordered for a better,more civil society,IMO.

Governments must lead,

We're screwed.

particularly in the Navy.

I'd preference the Air Force first. Better reach and faster response. But given that we're buying the lemon-in-Stealthy-clothing that is the F-35, I'm not confident that the decision-makers can look past a flashy PowerPoint presentation either way. :(

China,by contrast,is a disaster waiting to happen.Their massive population overshoot,environmental destruction and ethnic fractures are the primary causes.

Ethnic fractures ? What portion of the population isn't Han Chinese ? It would be minuscule wouldn't it ?

(That said, I think both Tibet and Xinjiang should be free - but these have tiny native populations...)

We should be aiming at stabilizing population at the present level in the short term,reduce exports of valuable fossil fuels like LNG,take positive steps to increase our manufacturing ability and substitute nuclear for coal.

There is no reason to reduce exports of LNG that has ever been coherently explained here - we've got over a century worth of the stuff - it just doesn't matter except from a greenhouse gas point of view.

And as for nuclear - too expensive, too slow, no one wants it, why continue the extract, deplete and pollute model, there are better ways etc etc...

"Ethnic fractures ? What portion of the population isn't Han Chinese ?"

About 10%. However, 10% of 1,300 million is 130 million, which is a lot of potential civil disobedience, or guerillas, or suicide bombers.

The minority ethnic groups are also geographically concentrated, which makes ethnic movements a lot easier to start and keep going. I mean, it´s like how 30,000 Lebanese scattered across Melbourne are no problem, but 3,000 in one suburb of Sydney are an identified minority of "trouble" by the NSW Police (whether they´re really trouble or the cops are racist is irrelevant in this respect, the point is that they´re consciously separate from their fellow Aussie citizens, they are "fractured").

"The US still has immense natural resources"

Really?

Aluminium: US "Domestic aluminum requirements cannot be met by domestic bauxite resources"

Lithium: "The identified lithium resources total 2.5 million tons in the United States and approximately 23 million tons in other countries. Among the other countries, identified lithium resources for Bolivia and Chile total 9 million tons and in excess of 7.5 million tons, respectively."

Iron Ore: PRODUCTION, BY COUNTRY
Country 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
United States 30,600 34,500 34,200 33,300 33,100
Australia 132,257 145,282 165,621 170,934 186,000
China 86,000 105,000 138,000 198,000 233,000

The US imports Iron.

I've had a brief browse... the picture ain't so rosy for the US.

The main game is the Eurasian-Africa land mass/es.
South America is antagonistic to the US.

Your 'analysis' is clouded by your attitudes to 'others'.

Yes, China is facing problems... and has a lot of non western 'friends'.
But I wonder, which will prevail.. a culture raised on the principle of the individual or that raised on the principle of the whole?

The US may yet win and grin.. but not without China's help.

"RISING oil prices pose a grave threat to global economic recovery, according to some economists."

Impossible! The IMF said just the other day that the global financial crisis is over and all is well. And the IMF always gets these things right.

In the traffic snarl article, the Oz writes,

"This of course is nonsense: people don't have a love affair with their car, they simply need their car, because if you have a job, a partner with a job, a kid at school, another one in childcare, and so on, there is absolutely no alternative at all."

A bold statement, to say the least. Penberthy is perhaps unaware of the existence of the city of Copenhagen, where in parts only a quarter of the people own a car, or the city of Arequipa, where almost nobody owns a car and 80-90% of the vehicles on the street are taxis but everyone walks a lot, or... well, quite a lot of cities around the world.

Simply because we have chosen to do things one way does not mean that there is no alternative.

Penberthy goes on to blather in alarm at the prospect of Australia with 36 million people, and the nasty traffic we´d have then. The thing is that while we have traffic jams with 22 million people, we also had them with 20 million, 18 million, 12 million and even 10 million people.

Traffic jams aren´t about how many people you have, but how many vehicles you have. And vehicles carrying on average 1.5 people are simply going to take up more space per person than vehicles with on average 8 or 80 people.

Part of any love affair is wanting to be the Only One of your beloved. And each of us wants to drive our car alone on an empty highway, just like in the ads. We want an exclusive relationship with our car, we don´t want to share it. Which leads to traffic jams.