The Bullroarer - Saturday 22nd August 2009

The Australian - Tone down hype on renewable energy

The economics of the RET wilt under cost-benefit analysis

STRIPPED of the political grandstanding, Australia's Renewable Energy Target would fail any reasonable cost-benefit test. However much internal warmth the thought of more windmills and solar panels might generate, the cold hard truth is that renewable energy targets have serious economic implications that warrant close scrutiny. Unfortunately, in handing alternative energy companies a subsidised monopoly to supply 20 per cent of our electricity, the RET scheme is unlikely to reduce emissions cost effectively, if at all.

The economics are simple. Given current technology, the electricity generated from renewables will be much more expensive. In May last year, the Productivity Commission calculated that next year, the cost of one megawatt hour of electricity from Australia's vast black coal reserves would be $30-35. Wind power would cost twice as much -- $55 to $80 per megawatt hour. And however scorching the Australian summers, solar power will cost $200 to $400 per megawatt hour.

NZ Herald - NZ's emissions target 'inadequate', says UN climate scientist

Climate Change Minister Nick Smith is rejecting criticism by a top United Nations climate scientist that the Government's emissions reduction target is disappointing, inadequate and unambitious.

NZ Herald - GM aims for record fuel-saving with Volt

General Motors says its Chevrolet Volt electric car could get 1.2 litres/100km (230mpg) in city driving, making it the first American vehicle to achieve triple-digit fuel economy if that figure is confirmed by federal regulators.

SMH - When governments fail, the public must set the agenda

The consequences of a lack of vision are not trivial. There is no need to detail the impoverished mess which is public transport in Sydney, or the daily inconveniences suffered by passengers obliged to use it. With every day that Sydney wallows in its conceptual chaos, the city is less and less prepared for great challenges which are rapidly approaching. Climate change. Peak oil. The epidemic of lifestyle diseases linked to urban design. All these will fall - are now falling - more heavily on this city because it lacks the vision to plan its transport and the will to act on its plan.

Radio NZ - Climate policies on agenda at joint Cabinet meeting

The first-ever joint Cabinet meeting between senior New Zealand government ministers and their Australian counterparts has been held in Sydney.

Prime Minister John Key said the meeting on Friday was a great opportunity for a wider exchange of ideas between the governments and a chance for the 16 ministers to talk about how to strengthen the trans-Tasman relationship.

Mr Key says the countries agreed at the meeting they should align their climate change policies as closely as possible.

Mr Key wants emissions trading schemes in both countries to be aligned so that carbon credits can be traded across the Tasman.

NZ Herald - Toyota goes cheap and chic in drive for profits

He also emphasised fuel efficiency, saying rising oil prices and dwindling supplies had left the industry at a "once-in-a-century crossroads" where excelling at making fuel-efficient and alternative-power vehicles would be a matter of survival.

Voxy.co.nz - Government Should Listen Carefully To Expert Advice On Climate Change

Labour's climate change spokesperson Charles Chauvel today thanked the head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Dr Rajendra Pachauri for his frank comments on New Zealand's greenhouse gas reduction target.

"I agree with Dr Pachauri's view reported in the New Zealand media today that the Government's conditional emissions reduction target of 10-20 per cent is much too low.

The Australian - MAp banks on economy's take-off

MACQUARIE Airports believes the worst of the global aviation crisis may be over and says it is in a strong position to benefit from a recovery, despite yesterday reporting a first-half net loss of $299million.

ABC - Climate policy on agenda at Nationals conference

The National Party will today formalise its opposition to the Federal Government's emissions trading scheme.

The first item to be debated at the National Party's annual federal council is a motion to oppose the Government's key climate change policy.

It is likely to get widespread support, but the move could cause friction with the Liberal Party.

The Australian - Push for sugarcane energy

"Plant trash that was once considered so worthless it was burnt on the ground can now converted into valuable energy that will help provide new jobs as we transition to a low-carbon economy."

Drive South - Merits of fuel efficiency ignored in diesel road user charges

This blunt approach sees ultra-fuel-efficient small diesels such VW's Polo Bluemotion charged at exactly the same per-kilometre rate as large diesel SUVs that use twice as much fuel, or more.

Given those larger diesels are, in turn, significantly more fuel-efficient than their petrol equivalents, and that one finding of the review is that even higher RUCs are needed, one wonders what incentives will be offered to encourage the use of the types of fuel-efficient vehicles required to help New Zealand reduce its emissions in the years ahead.

Voxy.co.nz - Workable Approach To Climate Change

NZMEA Chief Executive John Walley says, "Science and technology targeted at reducing emissions and increasing carbon sinks in the primary sector is the key to relatively painless reductions in net carbon emissions; ongoing support for research in this area is vital."

The Australian - Queensland to clean up coal-fired power

QUEENSLAND will ban new coal-fired power stations except for those that can be fitted with clean coal technology.

The move institutionalises the technology in the nation's major coal-producing state.

There are four new coal-fired power stations planned for the eastern seaboard -- one each in Queensland and Victoria, and two in NSW -- and all have provision for clean coal technology.

The Daily - Coast not immune from climate change

Figures released by climate change and sustainability minister Kate Jones yesterday showed a projected one in 100 year storm tide rise of 42cm at Noosa in the event of an expected 30cm sea level rise.

ABC - Climate change 'can open new Indigenous dialogue'

Aboriginal leader Professor Patrick Dodson says modern challenges such as climate change could provide a way for Australians to learn from Indigenous knowledge and values.

ABC - Farm support for climate change package

Rural lobby group AgForce says the Queensland Government's new climate change package offers more opportunity for landholders to help with the climate change solution.

I feel the need to rant about the next few stories... but instead I will just point out that China is playing a smart game of chess, while we are playing a dumb game of checkers. Many of the people involved in the deal on our side probably have suspicions about the long-term consequences of this chess game, but they will get paid huge bonuses as a result of these deals, so they don't really care, do they?

The Australian - Australia signs $50bn gas deal with China

AN Asia-fuelled, decades-long windfall for Australia's natural gas sector looks assured with up to $100 billion of fresh investment over 12 to 18 months expected across a range of projects after China promised last night to buy $50bn worth of natural gas from the proposed North West Shelf Gorgon development.

Herald Sun - Miners big and small set themselves up for boom to come

And Felix Resources has recommended a $3.33 billion friendly offer from Yanzhou Coal Mining that will see China's fourth-biggest producer of the fossil fuel scoop up a handful of mines in Queensland and NSW.

The Australian - Shock of the new

The present story is that political relations have deteriorated while economic ties have taken another leap forward. The contrast is stunning. The deepening Australia-China trade bond has its own momentum separate from political strains. It reminds of China's huge energy demands and that its regime legitimacy depends upon its economic growth. But the freeze in diplomatic ties testifies to the serious limits on the Australia-China political relationship.

Sorry for the slight lateness of the Bullroarer folks.

On another subject: I can barely contain my desire to post an extended rant about the degree to which we are selling off our irreplacable energy resources. But actually the question is not simple... for a start, the sale of resources is probably the only thing that keeps us out of recession.

Instead of ranting, I hand it over to you:
- Is it a good idea?
- Is there any alternative?
- What about the carbon issue? Are we simply handing China the ability to pollute in ways that we wouldn't allow in Oz?

I could do an extended rant on this subject myself but I will spare you from that.To answer your questions -
Is it a good idea? Australia is a quarry and has been so for many years.We have effectively killed our manufacturing industry by indulging in the free trade and globalization abominations.Our pastoral and agricultural industries are in decline because of land degradation and,possibly,climate change.
Without selling off the farm we have no hope of maintaining our standard of living with our current population let alone what is projected if the present insane immigration and welfare policies are continued.So,yes it is a good idea if all we are thinking about is how to keep living the high life for as long as possible.

However,if we take a longer term view,and,I hesitate to mention this factor,a moral view,then it is insane to sell off, willy nilly, resources,particularly energy, which we will need in the not too distant future to assist in the transition to an essentially non growth system where fossil fuels are scarce.

Is there any alternative? We need to start thinking about how Australia is going to survive as an independent nation over the next few decades at least.This is going to require a lot of radical rethinking of our priorities and directions.It is going to require a great deal of change,some of it painful,and sacrifices by everybody.There needs to be openness and honesty by the leadership in order to get the majority behind them.The situation is similar in some respects to WW 2 but then there was an easily identified external aggressor.
The threat now is internal.Some of us have seen the enemy,and he is US.It is we who must change,or perish.

What about the carbon issue? This is a joke,right?
There is currently no intention of doing anything effective about the carbon dioxide we are producing in this country just by burning coal for electricity generation let alone
doing something about what we export,not only to China.

You mentioned the word recession.We are in one and it won't be long before we are in a depression.This is going to cause a lot of suffering and destruction but I think that it is the only hope, a faint one, given the depth of human stupidity,that we can build a new paradigm to replace the old,worn out one - industrial society.
Have a look at history - it has nearly always taken a crisis to effect a change in the way most people think.Sadly,"most people" includes the governing heirarchy in Australia.

Short version:
- No.
- Maybe.
- Yes.

Long version:
- The sale (at 'efficient' speeds ie, as fast as possible) of finite resources in order to make a quick buck is logically at odds with what we should be doing with it, in light of the hard limits of a finite planet. Instead of shipping all the Iron Ore (for example) to China/India/whoever, where it can be make into cheap DVD players and various trinkets, we should be using some portion of it locally to build long-lived (and, at EOL, reusable/recyclable) infrastructure.

- There's an argument I hear often that if we don't sell it now, they'll come and take it later. This has some merit, I suppose, and it's not like we could defend against it if China, the US, India etc decided to make a military play for the vast inhospitibleness of this Continent, so one could view the current mad rush to export our physical endowment in that light. However, if we're going to sell it, why not value-add? Why not build smelters to reduce Iron Ore into steel products, for example. We don't even need to burn coal to reduce the Ore - we can use Electric Arc Furnaces, powered by Renewable electricity. FOr sure, it's more expensive than simply burning 65myo plants, but Iceland and Russia do it, and it seems profitable for them. We could also implement SacredCowTippers Wind-to-Ammonia plants, and export Ammonia as an (CO2-neutral) energy carrier instead of Coal. Or run HVDC cables along the seabed to nearby countries, eliminating at least some of the need for them to build their own power plants (heck, we could lease them the land, have them take the financial risk, and skim some profit off the top).
Or we could export information. Every time someone, anywhere in the world, buys a WiFi card, the CSIRO gets a small stipend. This is because they own the patents on the core 802.1x technology. Why can't we do more of this? As it stands, someone in Australia thinks of a great idea, makes a prototype, and then has to go overseas to get it manufactured, taking the IP with them. Examples include the Black Box Flight Recorder (to the US or Europe), PhotoVoltaics (to China), and Solar Thermal (US/India, see Ausra).

- One can argue that the 'slowing increase' in emissions from Western Countries is simply because we have off-shored our heavy (polluting) industries to places like China and India. Then we bitch and moan about how China is now the worlds leading polluter. If Denmark, a country than can be becalmed by a single weather system ( a high pressure cell passing over the counrty, for example) can justify building enough Wind to provide it with an average 20% of electricity, why can we not justify a buildout of at least as large a scale here in a country which is subject to at least four different wind regiemes, is wide enough so that any substantial change can be seen coming two or three days away and compensated for, and is essentially unpopulated? Anyone holding Native Title also gets a virtually guaranteed income! Heck, overbuild the Wind/Solar Thermal and use the excess to generate Ammonia, which can be stored for later use or exported to earn money! People whine and complain that Renewably-generated electricity is twice as expensive as subsidised, Fossil Fuel generated electricity, but electricity is getting more expensive anyway (there was another CM tabloid story a few months back claiming electricity was set to double in price by 2025, which, at just over 4%, is roughly the RBA's inflation target anyway). It's not like Fossil Fuels will be with us forever, and much of our stationary generation is nearing EOL anyway, and needs to be replaced. Logically we'd replace them with Renewables straight up, instead of more of the same which will become 'stranded assets' in the not too distant future. And that's not even taking into account that other countries might slap tarrifs on anything they import from us (like Obamas plans currently going through Congress). However, I agree with thirra: nothing is going to be done about CO2 and CO2e. It's simply not seen as profitable by Big Coal (who essentially run this country), and it's very easy to run a scare campaign on prices because almost nobody understands Compound Growth, can't grasp that a reduction in energy useage might not materially affect their lifestyle, and are almost wilfully ignorant of the flagrant inefficiencies in the way we currently use energy.

It's never a good idea to sell off something irreplacable.
But solar, wind, wave, tide, geothermal etc. probably *can* replace fossils. - We just need 20 years of concentrated effort and lots of (ahem!) spare fossil energy to build the renewable infrastructure. ... Will we make it?

The Carbon thing: If the tipping point really is 350 then we've passed it already and the frozen Mammoth poo and the undersea clathrates will outgas and bad environmental things will happen.

If humans behave sensibly, and we get the CO2 back below 350 and nicely share the remaining resources then there will still be enough to go around by the time that global population stabilises at 9Bn.
...But history is not on our side. We're wired up to squabble over resources (and "lebensraum"). If nuclear weapons start being tossed around, then life on Earth will be blasted back to the bacteria inside the pores of rocks... (And I hope they evolve into something more intelligent next time!)

Aboriginal leader Professor Patrick Dodson says modern challenges such as climate change could provide a way for Australians to learn from Indigenous knowledge and values.

Indeed. No one knows quite how to geoengineer an entire Continent using nothing more advanced than fire and sharpened sticks than the First Australians do.