Dr James Buckee: Testimony to the Australian Senate inquiry into public transport funding

Hansard (pdf) has a transcript of Dr James Buckee's testimony to the Australian Senate inquiry into public transport funding (via Energy Bulletin).

I have had 37 years in the oil industry. I was CEO of a large company for the last 16 years and I have just retired. As Bruce pointed out, that company produced about half a million barrels a day, which is sort of Australia’s consumption. From the 16 years of exploring the world, I would make the following observations: there are virtually no unexplored basins in the world. The ones that there are might be in the Arctic, and that illustrates the point quite neatly because it is obviously really difficult to get that.

The underlying fact here is that the world is consuming 30 billion barrels of oil a year and finding eight. It has been like that since 1980, maybe a little bit earlier, and it is certainly not getting any better. There are two further things. People say, ‘Look at the subsalt discoveries in the Gulf of Mexico and Brazil.’ I would say, those are extremely difficult resources to produce. You will notice, of all the discoveries in the deep water Gulf of Mexico, not one barrel has been produced; not even on the list. It is the same for Brazil: it is subsalt and it is really difficult to produce.

The second point is that—I agree with the gentlemen over there—the black oil has peaked. This is disguised by the NGL production from the big gas fields in Qatar. They are quite rich in liquids and, as the LNG has been boosted from there, so has the associated NGL. So that has enabled the world’s liquids to keep growing, albeit slowly, while the black oil itself has declined, and this is disguised.


Another point in opposition to this thesis is, look at all the big oilfields in Canada—for example, the tar sands or oil sands. My response to that is that you have to think of tank and spigot: it is a big tank but the spigot is pretty small. The best projections get it going to two or three million barrels a day when the world is declining at four or five million barrels a day, so it does not really change the big picture at all.

The recent demand weakness has certainly disguised the tightness of supply demand. It has also deferred a lot of investment and it has deferred a lot of drilling. It has given people who are making big investments cause to doubt. As a result of this, the supply side has weakened. The demand side is driven by population growth and GNP per head, which is going up. So it is inexorable that the stress situation is going to come around again and the price of oil will start going up again in the next year or so.

I see the price going up until price rations demand and so I see the outlook as a long, gentle plateau, but by 2030 definitely we will be seeing a decline in oil production. So for people who are in the long-term planning business, as you are, to focus the mind you should think $20 a litre. That focuses it quite well and throws into sharp contrast the sorts of things you have to do.

OK, so he's a Late Peaker. No big surprise, he was the CEO of an Oil company, after all.

I suspect this points to the future conclusion of the Comittee, as Committees rarely ask for testimonies from people who'll give them an answer they don't want. :(

A statement of the bleeding obvious really-not you Bellistner.

The real question is - After the interminable inquiries,what are they going to do about it - SFA I guess.

According to the esteemed ex-CEO, we've got twenty years, let someone else worry about it. :D :(

Reading the full proof of the Hansard reveals this quote from Br Buckee:

The second point is that—I agree with the gentlemen over there—the black oil has peaked.
This is disguised by the NGL production from the big gas fields in Qatar. They are quite rich in
liquids and, as the LNG has been boosted from there, so has the associated NGL. So that has
enabled the world’s liquids to keep growing, albeit slowly, while the black oil itself has declined,
and this is disguised.

I'm not sure how you conclude he is a late peaker when he states quite clearly that black-oil (conventional crude?) has peaked! No ambiguity there. Where it gets murky is with total liquids production, demand reduction due to GFC etc.

Please give the man some credit for fronting the committee and lending a hand to ASPOs efforts. The people who are in the public domain who are doing something about peak oil awareness, need support not cheap shots from anonymous bloggers who contribute nothing but nitpicking.

Maybe Bellistner can list all of the presentations, submissions and testimony that he has provided in order to raise awareness of peak oil and influence policy makers? Probably zero?

I've made submissions to the Green Car Innovation Fund, the 2020 Summit, and two other I can't think of right now. But like I said before, Senate Inquiries and Committees rarely ask for testimony from people who'll challenge the already-decided outcome. If they ask me, I'll be happy to rock up and do a little spech for them. As we see, even ASPO has a variety of opinions about the state of fuel supply:
Page 49:

Mr Robinson
...
The peak oil time frame is likely to be pretty short—five to 10 years or less—and, back to our
submission, there is a quote, perhaps from an economist:
Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist.

If you read the Hansard (Buckee and ASPO start on page 48), you'll probably find that you (and I) agree with most of what Buckee says. Buckee himself says that 'black oil' (conventional) has peaked. However, I take exception to his apparent suggestion that it's only by 2030 you'll 'definately' see declines. The vast, vast majority of material you see on TOD alone suggest we'll be seeing measurable declines in only a few years (already we see a 4mbpd decline in production thanks to the GFC). Buckee also thinks Oil is irreplacable for road transport. I disagree, and point to developments in EV technology, but perhaps this is his blind spot. Everyone has one.
Buckee also makes an important point on ELP (page 59):

The second point that is really important is that exports decline faster than production because of consumption within the nation states. So you are finding that, although the production goes up, domestic consumption is growing faster, and exports are declining faster, obviously, than production.

And then there was this gem:

Senator LUDLAM—What about a food crunch?
Mr Robinson—In Australia we are relatively well equipped, but how do we allocate available petrol and diesel? Currently, the farming communities will be outbid by overanxious mums in leafy suburbs driving unfit kids to school in obese four-wheel drives. They will outbid the farmers. We need to be keeping the rural communities going—the farming communities, the farmers themselves. There are a whole lot of things that we do need. We should be prioritising these and certainly Australia’s food production is very important.
Senator BACK—Certainly, Mr Robinson—if I can jump in—if the leafy suburb mums do
outbid the farmers, it will not be much longer that their kids will be obese.
Mr Robinson—Yes.

:D

And

Senator LUDLAM—Who is doing it well? We are a little bit sick of pointing overseas to look for the best examples, but who is doing it well—oil vulnerability generally, rather than just public transport?
Mr Robinson—In Australia, the Queensland government has had an Oil Vulnerability Taskforce which reported. The Minister for Sustainability, Climate Change and Innovation, Andrew McNamara, was drawing up a Queensland government oil vulnerability mitigation and adaptation strategy. Very sadly indeed—and I think this is a loss for the nation as well as for Queensland—Andrew McNamara was defeated on local issues over a dam, about which I do not know much, but the only politician who was taking an interest in people driving at a state or federal level is no longer the member for Hervey Bay. That was happening in Brisbane.
The late Dr Ali Samsam Bakhtiari briefed the WA cabinet in 2004 and he briefed this
committee. We do not have a lot of things to show from WA, for instance, for Dr Samsam Bakhtiari. Within Australia there is not a lot. Brisbane is building a pentagram of tunnels under the CBD, so it does not sound like Andrew McNamara had a lot of sway in cabinet there. Internationally, there is really no-one. The Swedish government has a policy to reduce their oil use by 2020, so they have policies and good public transport and things, but I am not sure how much actual action has been taken by the Swedish government. Overall, we are not well prepared. Just as the US government was not very well prepared for Hurricane Katrina, no governments are prepared for the oil storms.

'Pentagram of tunnels' just about describes it.
Andrew McNamara was defeated because of the Traveston (Travesty?) Dam. He's been replaced by Kate Jones, who's got an Arts Degree (and presumably a free bus to the Dole Office immediately afterwards :D ), is studying Law, and is a former media advisor! I'm not hopeful.

Andrew McNamara was defeated because of the Traveston (Travesty?) Dam. He's been replaced by Kate Jones, who's got an Arts Degree (and presumably a free bus to the Dole Office immediately afterwards :D ), is studying Law, and is a former media advisor! I'm not hopeful.

Sure, so the new Minister for Camping Grounds is a former media advisor. Guess who the new Minister for Transport is?

Forgot to mention (and can't edit comment now that you've replied) I also attempted to stand as an Independent for Federal House of Reps in 2007 (Divisional redistribution meant half the people who put their name down to support my application were now in a new division, and thus didn't count, and I didn't have time to get the required numbers again).

Guess who the new Minister for Transport is?

More promising, but a bit of a leadfoot, apparently.

I think I'll stick with the co-author of the first state/provincial government report in the world to officially acknowledge peak oil, who has been instrumental in enhancing public transport and urban renewal in her electorate, in preference to an anonymous blogger who once failed to register for a federal election and who thinks that "green cars" will solve peak oil.

who has been instrumental in enhancing public transport and urban renewal in her electorate

Abolsutely, and good on her. That doesn't make her (or anyone else, for that), matter, above critisism, or invulerable to people pointing out inconsistencies.

who thinks that "green cars" will solve peak oil

Straw Man. You'll find that not once have I suggested any such thing.

I'm not sure how you conclude he is a late peaker when he states quite clearly that black-oil (conventional crude?) has peaked!

I see the price going up until price rations demand and so I see the outlook as a long, gentle plateau, but by 2030 definitely we will be seeing a decline in oil production.

2030 sounds like a classic Late Peaker to me. He's saying "yes, conventional Crude has peaked, but we'll be able to make up the difference with other liquids/non-conventional sources".

Could you provide a link to some of your work Bellistner?

I had to think about what you meant here for a moment, but I then came to the conclusion that you believe that unless someone has been 'published' they are not allowed to critisise. If that's the case, almost no one would be qualified to comment on anyone or anything.

... I then came to the conclusion that you believe that unless someone has been 'published' they are not allowed to critisise.

Not at all. I'm actually looking for more people to get involved in ASPO-Brisbane. We're having our next meeting tomorrow at the State Library. Look me up on the ASPO-Oz website and call/email me for the details. Happy to get you involved straight away in our work on:

1. Submission on the South East Queensland Regional Plan.

2. Consultation workshops and submission for the Federal Government Energy White Paper.

3. Various public awareness events and presentations.

All you have to do is turn up and offer to help out. Constructive criticism is always welcome, but there is no hand-wringing allowed. Looking forward to hearing from you.

Why oh why do people always have these meetings when i'm working!? :( :D

(OK, apart from the unsociable hours I work...)

1. I've got a Light Rail Network I've 'built' in Google Earth you can include, if you'd like. Estimated cost of some $200bn, but that's less than half the Petrol Subsudy for last year, and is a lot cheaper than running Heavy Rail to Redcliffe (something Team Anna isn't really interested in anyway...)

2. This is the one chaired by Marn, and 'assisted' by all the Carbon-and-oil-intensive industries, right?

Long gentle plateau still = no growth which still means big problems.

Waht conclusions do you think the committee had made before it even asked for submissions?

Waht conclusions do you think the committee had made before it even asked for submissions?

That PO isn't a short-term problem. Maybe I'm just being cynical, and I hope I'm wrong about them. If I am wrong, they they do conclude that there's a problem, their recommendations will be ignored anyway. :(

Bellistner wrote “I suspect this points to the future conclusion of the Comittee, as Committees rarely ask for testimonies from people who'll give them an answer they don't want.” And Thirra appears to agree with him. Why the cynicism? On what evidence do you base this assertion?

Senate Committees almost invariably advertise their inquiries and invite anyone who wishes to do so to submit evidence. For example, the committee to which Buckee spoke called for submissions in an advertisement in The Australian on 17 December 2008. If Bellistener and Thirra cared to read a random selection of the many Committee reports on the Senate website they would find that almost invariably Senators are presented with evidence from a multitude of viewpoints.

Why the cynicism?

Too many years of watching politics. :D :p