The Bullroarer - Thursday 12th February 2009

NZ Herald - Hopes of full climate agreement are 'Noddyland stuff'

The minister responsible for climate change negotiations, Tim Groser, says we should not expect the big conference in Copenhagen in December to come up with anything like the Kyoto Protocol.

"The idea that Copenhagen could, in the language used at the Poznan conference, result in a 'full and certifiable international agreement for the second commitment period' is Noddyland stuff."

The Australian - Climate policy change needed to stop bushfires like Victoria fires: Flannery

Writing in The Guardian newspaper in Britain, the acclaimed scientist said environmental conditions had become more extreme than ever in the lead-up to the deadly blazes, causing the fires to be "quantitatively different from anything seen before".

Professor Flannery warned Australia would face more terrible fires in the future unless policies on fossil fuels and pollution emissions changed.

"We must anticipate more such terrible blazes, for the world's addiction to burning fossil fuels goes on unabated," he wrote.

"And there is now no doubt that emissions pollution is laying the preconditions necessary for more such blazes.

"When he ratified the Kyoto protocol, Australia's prime minister, Kevin Rudd, described climate change as the greatest threat facing humanity.

"Shaken, and clearly having seen things none of us should see, he has now had the eyewitness proof of his words.

Stuff.co.nz - Aerodrome fuel thieves caught
This story raises a question that has been on my mind a lot recently: Is there a point beyond which scarcity causes lower efficiency, not higher efficiency? A point at which scarcity leads to things getting spilled and broken, rather than being used sparingly and preserved?

Michael Bryant, co-owner of Air Manawatu, said it was not so much the theft of the fuel that bothered him but the fact that the aircraft had been tampered with.

"It's a real concern when someone tampers with an aeroplane."

The Australian - Jetstar ditches fuel surcharges

Jetstar said from midnight tonight, it would remove the $25 fuel surcharge on trans-Tasman services, the $35 surcharge on its short haul Asian services and the $68 surcharge on its international long haul services.

Stuff.co.nz - Transport budget chopped

Major cuts to transport projects are behind North Shore City Council’s ability to reduce rates rises over the next 15 years.

This is despite officers warning that congestion will get worse and the city may put multi-million dollar transport subsidies at risk.

Average annual spending on transport is planned to be cut by $12 million to $46m, compared to the previous 10-year plan.

Otago Daily Times - Evidence coal cheaper than wind

Coal is a cheaper investment than wind for electricity generators, even when taking costs of carbon into account, an Environment Court appeal hearing for Meridian Energy's proposed $2 billion Project Hayes wind farm was told yesterday.

Appellant Roch Sullivan called witness Bryan Leyland, a power-industry consultant from Auckland, to give evidence on the economics of energy generation in New Zealand.

Mr Leyland said given the decreasing cost of carbon per tonne, it would be cheaper for an electricity generator to invest in coal and pay for carbon credits than it would be to invest in wind and receive credit from offsetting carbon.

"At the moment, carbon per tonne is about $25, and the price is still going down. The best thing for New Zealand generators would be to pay up and shut up.

Radio NZ - Credit crunch, price drop chills oil prospecting

The search for oil and gas in New Zealand is slowing as finance dries up and oil prices stagnate.

Both cashflow and potential returns have been squeezed as premium crude has fallen from a high of $US147 a barrel last year, to around $US40 at present.

SMH - A deadly reminder that we must tackle climate change

I was born in Victoria, and over five decades I've watched as the state has changed. The long, wet and cold winters that seemed insufferable to me as a boy vanished decades ago, and for the past 12 years a new, drier climate has established itself. I could measure its progress whenever I flew in to Melbourne. Over the years the farm dams filled less frequently while the suburbs crept further into the countryside, their swimming pools oblivious to the great drying.

Climate modelling suggests the decline of southern Australia's winter rainfall is caused by a build-up of greenhouse gas, much of it from coal burning. Victoria has the most polluting coal power plant on earth, and another plant was threatened by the fire.

The Australian - Swan seeks second opinion on emission trading scheme

TREASURER Wayne Swan has asked a powerful House economics committee to judge whether the proposed emissions trading scheme is the best way to tackle climate change.

The move appears to throw its schedule for the introduction of an emissions trading scheme into doubt.

Herald Sun - China talk lifts Rio

RIO Tinto shares surged back through the $50 mark yesterday, amid mounting speculation the miner will unveil a $US20 billion ($A30.5 billion) deal with Chinalco at its full-year profit announcement today.

Investors gave the much-anticipated investment agreement a pre-emptive thumbs up, sending Rio shares jumping more than 6 per cent or $3.04 to $52 -- their highest level since November.

Chinalco, China's biggest aluminium producer, is rumoured to be in talks with Rio about the purchase of bonds that will convert into shares in the miner.

Business Day NZ - Shell mulls NZ sale

The New Zealand Refining Company says oil giant Shell is considering selling its New Zealand downstream businesses.

New Zealand Refining said Shell, its 17.14 percent shareholder, told it today it was undertaking a strategic review of its downstream businesses, which focus on selling the output of refineries rather than on satisfying customer needs.

The Australian - Blame the apocalypse on climate change or abortions
An overview of blame-fixing

Pastor Danny Nalliah, in a Catch the Fire Ministries press release, yesterday blamed the bushfires on terminations

PASTOR Danny Nalliah was not surprised by the bushfires due to a dream he had last October relating to consequences of the abortion laws passed in Victoria. He said these bushfires have come as a result of the incendiary abortion laws which decimate life in the womb.
[.....]

Climate doom-monger Freya Mathews in The Age thinks the cool change helped:

IT is only a couple of years since scientists first told us we could expect a whole new order of fires in southeastern Australia; fires of such ferocity they would simply engulf the towns in their path. And here they are. The fires we saw on Saturday were not "once in a thousand years" or even "once in a hundred years" events, as our political leaders keep repeating. They were the face of climate change in our part of the world. It was only by chance that a cool change came through on Saturday. What if the pattern of the heatwave that occurred in the last week of January had been repeated?

Bernard Salt in The Herald Sun explains the cool change is the problem:

THE bottom line is that Victoria has more people in more tree-change communities growing more rapidly than anywhere else in Australia. This is a matter of probabilities: a multitude of small communities scattered across bushland magnifies the probability that fire -- any fire -- will wreak havoc. But this exposure goes beyond the demographic. Melbourne is an accident of geography that is predisposed to bushfire, just as San Francisco is predisposed to earthquake.
[.....]

Hi Aeldric,

In answer to your question on whether "scarcity promotes efficiency", you need only look at the sad story of global fisheries. North Atlantic Cod, Blue Whales, Southern Blue Fin Tuna, etc., etc., etc. wiped out in persuit of unsustainable short-term profits. (Sigh!)

Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach that man to fish and he can comprehensively stuff up his marine ecosystem for ever...

On a different tack, the Sydney Morning Herald now seems to be taking Peak Oil much more seriously. Wednesday's editorial shows a big change from their attitude of a few years ago...

Transports of less than delight

RESIDENTS of wealthy suburbs close to the city are generally well served, in Sydney terms at least, by public transport. Yet new figures from the NSW Transport Data Centre show they still prefer to drive to work. Public transport advocates have accused them of snobbery - of being reluctant to mix with the hoi polloi on the bus.

There may be a small element of this unfortunate attitude in the decision of a few, but almost certainly another factor - rational and justifiable - is influencing most. Public transport in these suburbs is still not good enough.

By no means are all residents of these suburbs wealthy or on high incomes, of course, but a significant proportion are, and high incomes will very often mean long working days. The public transport effort is concentrated in a narrow band around the standard morning and evening peaks. Outside those times, buses are less frequent. Those working a long day, starting earlier and finishing later than others, quite reasonably do not want to spend 15 or 20 minutes waiting for a bus. Frequent services are essential if commuters are to be successfully encouraged to use public transport.

There is a vicious circle at work. As commuters distrust bus services, they stay away, and when they stay away, bus schedulers cut back services further. As those services become less frequent, more commuters are convinced their car is the only option. The result, common across the metropolitan area, not just in wealthy suburbs, is that Sydney relies too heavily on the car for routine and predictable trips.

This has implications far beyond mere commuter choice. Petrol is now cheap, but it is not many months since it was very expensive; if fears about peak oil are confirmed and world oil production fails to match demand, as the International Energy Agency predicts, it will become prohibitively expensive, and disrupt the transport patterns and habits formed by this careless reliance on the car. Only government action can end the vicious circle: public transport must move to the top of our priorities.

Yup, I love the quote

Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach that man to fish and he can comprehensively stuff up his marine ecosystem for ever...

That NZ article about coal being cheaper than wind is remarkably stupid.

Does that guy have any idea what the purpose of carbon trading and the action of the market is supposed to achieve ? If its chepaer to build coal rather than wind now that simply means the price for carbon permits is currently too low - and they'll have to rise.

So you'll build a plant with a 40 year lifetime which is guaranteed to face rising costs in future...

Yes, this was such a compellingly vapid piece of analysis that I simply had to post it.

The argument boils down to the statement: "We should ignore the trends and simply act as if nothing will ever change."

Sadly, a lot of decision-makers seem unable to view analysis critically - they just read the "Executive Summary" and then act on it.

Bryan Leyland has opinions on global warming that are different to what most scientists believe. I went to one of his lectures on the NZ electricity generating industry in Auckland and it was very frustrating to have to sit through the first three quarters of it being all about his alternative global warming theories, sunspots I believe.

Having said that he is the leading power industry consultant and he does have a lot of knowledge about the NZ electricity sector. I don't agree with him on wind though. It seems to be accepted opinion that NZ can take about 10 to 20% of wind as an electricity source without problems. Spain is a good example of this (10 to 20%) percentage of wind power. NZ is on 3% I believe.

Ladas are cheaper than BMWs, street girls on heroin are cheaper than a happy marriage, Macca's is cheaper than a steak dinner, that doesn't mean we should all drive Ladas, pick up a street girl and scoff down some Macca's with her after a quickie.

The appropriateness of things cannot be judged solely on cost in dollars.

TREASURER Wayne Swan has asked a powerful House economics committee to judge whether the proposed emissions trading scheme is the best way to tackle climate change

.......Australia's plans to curb greenhouse gas emissions are in danger of being derailed as the carbon price falls in Europe and the government convenes a parliamentary inquiry into its proposed emissions trading scheme..............The proposal effectively links the price of carbon internationally to the price of Australian emission units (AEU). But the price of CERs has collapsed on the European Climate Exchange as economic activity slowed, reducing the demand for carbon credits and raising the possibility of a short-fall in revenue when Australia's government auctions carbon permits ahead the introduction of its emissions trading scheme in mid-2010..............
more @ http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/SP427901.htm