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Peak Oil in "The Diplomat"
Posted by Big Gav on September 7, 2008 - 8:11am in The Oil Drum: Australia/New Zealand
Sorry about the lack of the weekend Bullroarer but I've been offline all weekend.
I will point to this story in "The Diplomat" though - Fighting On Empty - which looks at the Australian Defence Force's response to peak oil (one which has a very low profile).
The Australian Defence Force consumes annually 125 million litres of diesel and 200 million litres of aviation fuel, according to government statistics. The strategy and capabilities of the ADF are dependent on oil and they are exposed to the same price fluctuations that are wreaking havoc on business and household budgets. Considering the extensive lead time and lifespan for Defence capability acquisitions and the poor projections for oil, it is little surprise that there is a growing chorus of concern coming from within Defence ranks.
A number of serving officers and senior public servants have formed the independent Defence and Security Working Group under the umbrella of the Australian chapter of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO). “The decline in global oil supplies will have profound consequences for the ADF and civil border protection agencies. Australia has recently embarked on several large military and civil national security projects involving the acquisition of aircraft, vessels and land transport. ...
Quite how the Australian military intends to address concerns about oil is uncertain. The Department of Defence is playing its cards close to its chest, either because they are holding no cards, or they are unsure how to play them. Neil Burgess from Defence Public Affairs had no comment except to say that, “No one wants to talk to you.” There are, however, personnel within the ADF who are keen to speak frankly on this issue, but getting official approval is difficult.
The Defence Minister’s office responded to questions by saying: “The ADF at this point in time has no programs to research synthetic fuels, but it does leverage off its collaborations with the USA and UK via a number of multilateral forums.” These nations are “playing a significant role in promoting the uptake and commercialisation of alternative fuels and power generation, for example gas/coal/biomass to liquids for aviation fuels.” Apart from these clues, the Department of Defence refuses to be drawn further on how it intends to maintain mobility until the release of the Defence White Paper due later in the year. The demise of cheap oil, in conjunction with the interrelated and inseparable issue of climate change, presents some unenviable challenges.
Based on that comment, I don't think we'll see any more articles like this for the time being...
In a similar vein, The Diplomat also has a look at the impact of high oil prices on the US Defense forces - The New Oils Of War.
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I think that the Abrams tank was mentioned in this article re fuel consumption.Even worse than the old Centurion which got about 4 gallons to the mile.
This purchase,by the Deputy Sheriff, of US castoffs was probably about the most insane of our recent defence procurements,and that is saying something.Probably the best thing they could do with the Abrams would be to ship them all to Afganistan and run them to destruction.They would make nice playground equipment for the kiddies over there eventually.
Given the effectiveness of light,infantry mobile anti-tank weapons I think armoured vehicles are not appropriate for the Australian Army.Fast and nimble are the watchwords.
Given the lack of intestinal fortitude in our rulers I doubt if there has been much effective action on the fuel for defence issue,let alone for emergency services.Liquid fuel is essential for aircraft and light vehicles in these applications.The navy might be able to convert to nuclear for submarines and larger surface ships but I don't see any signs of that happening.
Without a credible defence force Australia will be a sitting duck for all sorts of unpleasant arm twisting in the coming geopolitical games.Don't count on Uncle Sam for back-up either.Deputy Sheriffs are expendable.
Well, the thing about the Abrams is that no Australian aircraft can transport them intact, and they're too wide for any of our railways, too. We also lack the shipping to be able to transport more than a few at a time. So basically we'd be relying on the yanks to sail them off to wherever we want to go, or else they can only be used to defend... well, their own barracks, since they can't be transported around the country.
As to the general topic, all the above is military code for "we have no clue."
On the other hand, perhaps the ADF's peak oil plan is "help the Americans in Iraq", which should in theory keep them well-supplied with cheap oil. In theory. I mean, it's not like the Americans have ever screwed Australia over on trade :)
Kiashu,irony appreciated,thanks.Nothing like a touch of humour with the evening's red.
Cheers.
As that 325Million liters represents about 1% of Australian produced oil, it will be a long time before the post peak tail of Australian production drops below 1% of peak. You can guess the military will always be the first in line at the refineries.
I can't see electric tanks without some pretty big improvements in batteries, but possibly CNG for some military applications or duel fuel, CNG in training diesel if the shooting starts.
The other alternative would be an international arms agreement that all military vehicles were EV or even solar powered only. Could slow down conflicts, and accelerate technical developments!
Yes that could be part of the post Kyoto agreement; no FF use by any military by 2020.
If you look at what the Pentagon is doing, then it's easy to decode...
... to "CTL"...