I work in both the fuel and the transport sectors, and both are hurting. Fuel retailers are paid a fixed margin per litre for the sale. All other expenses are on a percentage basis, so many are trying to remove the credit card option for payment. With the oil cos controlling profit margins and expenses running wild, many more sites will close, which will concentrate the sales on the oil co operated sites and supermarkets. The attitude of some in the oil cos. that claim sites are closing through poor business practices, is not helping the already strained relationships. The question has to be asked as to whose business practices? Sales of fuel are dropping on many sites, although the old adage of location,location,location is correct now more than ever. Prepay of fuel to prevent theft is almost a certainty, although this will never apply in some areas. Shop sales are holding for some but others are experiencing a steep drop. Chippies, drinks tobacco and chocolate are still selling well. Workshops are starting to close down, with smaller operators finding the cost of compliance and rentals too much. I expect small workshops to become less and less viable.
Transport operators are also getting squeezed, with smaller operators unable to pass on increasing costs immediately. Many are closing down or in the process of doing so. Bigger operators have contracts that allow them to adjust rates and pass on costs, but even they cannot do so immediately and some are struggling. Many transport operators are fearful of competition from Rail. They are also angry that the Govt. is competing with them at the same time as regulating them out of business.
My personal views are that the Railway is the logical way to transport freight for longhaul/linehaul. However the Govt. must come clean about their intentions and give the transport industry a chance to participate. The anger that will result from people losing their business by Govt. interference is simmering, and the RUC protests were a relief valve.
The big Four oil cos in NZ are showing their hand over Peak Oil. Some are divesting assets as fast as they can. All appear to be using contractors for delivery, and all have moved or are moving admin offshore, where possible. They appear to be getting themselves ready to sell whats left or walk away. With most having less than $800 million kiwi invested, it really is small change compared to what they are reporting as profits worldwide.
Perhaps the most telling point is the attitude of the oil cos has hardened markedly and this is not a good sign for their long term involvement.
This is of course a collation of my observations, and is open to my own bias, however I have extensive contacts in both sectors, and the emotions are running very high in both.

As to the future, we are in for some very rough times and there seems to be a reluctance to pull heads out of the sand and face reality. Certainly the so called energy strategies that politicians present, do not have any link to reality. They do not address the looming crunch at all.
This was written before I had fully read National's energy policy. That does seem to address the short term but is also a hope and pray in the long term.

Just my ramblings and take them as you wish.

NZ Tui Field Depleting Fast?
New Zealand Oil and Gas (NZOG) CEO David Salisbury was quoted as saying that the Tui Field has produced the year end June 2008 ( first year in production) over 15 million barrels (mmbbls) of oil , making a one year revenue of $234.6 Million from its 15% stake in this "Joint Venture" field. Obviously, this is good news at first glance, however, The the Ministry of Economic Development (MED) has published in its Energy Data Book- June 2008 that the remaining recoverable reserve of Tui Field is 35.4 mmbbls. A quick calculation will show that Tui will be depleted in about 2 years time on present production rate (or slightly more if operators decide to reduce present production rate).
It is quite understandable that "Joint Venture" should make the best out of present crude oil prices, however, this will bring to question the NZ Government Policy (Crown Minerals) regarding rate of depletion of oil fields as a factor concerning National Energy Security Policy and the well being and good management of the fields. If there is no such policy then we think it is time that (Crown Minerals) should put some restraints on the rate of depletion of fields proportional to their recoverable reserve and the nature of each field. It is important to safeguard the interest of all parties, but we believe that the nation has the right and a stake in the way its natural resources being utilised
M Al-Saleem
www.oilnz.blogspot.com