The Bullroarer - Sunday 10 August 2008

frogblog - An early morning video on Peak Oil

The Australian - At $US120, oil's well with the world for now

Oil's rapid rise to near $US150, from around $US50 in early 2006, was heavily supported by worries that supplies would not keep up with demand, particularly if they were further slashed by conflict in the Middle East or Nigeria. Along with sliding US demand, a commitment by Saudi Arabia in June to boost production by 200,000 barrels, although initially shrugged off by the market, has alleviated concerns of a shortage.

Evidence of this came this week as traders reacted coolly to the cut of about 850,000 barrels a day from a major pipeline leading from the Caspian Sea to the Turkish export port of Ceyhan. Militant group the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, has claimed responsibility for the fire which has shut in the pipeline for two to five weeks, despite Turkish authorities denying an attack was behind the fire.

Despite the loss of oil, there was little reaction to the outage when it happened and only a $US1.41 a barrel push higher on Thursday after the attack claims were made and the repair time announced.

Peak Energy - Trouble In Pipelineistan

GWAG - Georgia, Russia, the West: Checkmate



Peak Energy - CSM vs UCG in Queensland

One company I mentioned in my post on coal to liquids (CTL) last year was Linc Energy, who are trying to produce CTL using underground coal gasification (UCG) in Queensland. The Australian reports that the state government is having second thoughts about allowing UCG projects to proceed, instead seemingly preferring the rapidly expanding coal seam methane (CSM) industry - State lets off steam in coal gasification plans.

The Australian - Linc Energy shares rally after early plunge

THE Queensland Government last night backed away from a statement claiming that it would not issue any new licences for underground coal gasification technology for three years -- but not before the share prices of the two main companies operating in the area dropped dramatically. ...

The Queensland Government made its statement as a court battle continued between Linc Energy and coal seam methane gas producers Queensland Gas concerning access to coal-rich fields in the Surat Basin west of Brisbane. Linc Energy has tenements over land near Chinchilla, where it has a pilot plant burning coal underground using technology that originally came out of the Soviet Union. But while it has these tenements under the Minerals and Resources Act, Queensland Gas has tenements over the same land under the Petroleum and Natural Gas act.

The Australian - Clash over gas on the plains of western Darling Downs

The Australian - Newcrest back on Varanus Island gas

NEWCREST Mining, Australia's largest gold company, has begun receiving gas from Apache Energy's Varanus Island processing plant, two months after an explosion crimped production. Newcrest said it was receiving 50 per cent of its normal gas requirement for the Telfer operation in the Pilbara region of Western Australia, with further increases expected later this month. The Varanus plant handles about 30 per cent of WA's domestic natural gas requirements, and the explosion forced some companies to source alternative gas or use expensive diesel to power their mines.

Bloomberg - Inpex Expects Record Profit After Oil Beats Forecast

Inpex is moving ahead with liquefied natural gas plant projects to capitalize on growing demand for the cleaner fuel. The company has found adequate reserves at the Masela gas field in Indonesia's Timor Sea to build the 5 million-ton-a-year Abadi liquefied natural gas plant, with production slated to begin 2016.

Inpex has said it is awaiting approval for the location of the A$12 billion ($11.1 billion) Ichthys LNG plant, either at the Maret Islands off Western Australia or in Darwin in the country's Northern Territory. ``Within a month or two, we'll determine the Ichthys plant location,'' Director Mutsuhisa Fujii told reporters in Tokyo.

NZ Herald - Origin will spend $71m to find oil and gas in South

Australian-listed Origin Energy has confirmed it will spend about US$50 million ($71.2 million) on a "high risk" one-hole offshore test drilling programme for oil and gas about 65km off the coast of Dunedin. Origin, one of the country's largest gas and oil explorers, has already completed a hydrographic seismic survey of the Carrack and Caravel prospects covering about 300sq km in the designated southern point of the Canterbury Basin.

The prospect area is about 35km from the Galleon 1 prospect, drilled by Shell BP Todd Canterbury Services in 1985, which found gas and oil but was capped as commercially unviable at the time. Origin manager of investor relations Angus Guthrie said from Australia the programme was considered high risk but with potentially high rewards. The Carrack and Caravel structures were estimated to contain possibly 750 million barrels of recoverable oil or 2700 petajoules of recoverable gas and 500 million barrels of associated condensate.

Courier Mail - Plantations to yield clean green fuel

AUSTRALIAN motorists could be driving cars run on clean, green fuel from forests of biodiesel trees in the future. Farmers are already rushing to get hold of seeds imported from the South American rainforests to grow plantations of trees that will produce alternative fuel to run machinery and vehicles on their properties. And scientists say the potential of some native Australian plants to be grown commercially as a renewable fuel source for transport and industry is exciting.

Researchers from the University of Queensland have partnered with Origin Energy and Pacific Renewable Energy on several hectares of pilot plantations of pongamia pinnata – sometimes referred to as native wisteria – at Roma and Caboolture. A hectare of the trees can produce 5500 litres of biodiesel a year – enough to run 100 cars for a year.

The Australian - PM told: rethink gas plan

OIL and gas company heads will join forces to call for changes to Labor's proposed emissions trading scheme in a bid to stop the exodus offshore of billions of dollars of LNG investment to the detriment of the environment. ... The chairmen or chief executives of companies including Shell, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Woodside, Apache, Inpex, BP and BHP Billiton will write to Kevin Rudd, arguing he should rework the formula by which the Government is proposing to grant free emissions permits to existing high-emitting industries - a formula that excludes LNG.

frogblog - Where’s Winston?

Churchill that is. When one of the UK’s top scientists says “Prepare for global temperature rise of 4C“, we know we’re in trouble.

SMH - Rio Tinto ore output surges

Amid the record production numbers, Rio admitted to feeling the pinch of rising costs. Mr Albanese said the company is not immune to increasing cost pressures being felt across the industry. Operating costs have risen dramatically across the resources sector for items such as energy, labour, freight and consumables including, caustic soda, which is used in alumina production.

In other production figures, coking coal output rose 25% to 2 million tonnes, the company said. Output of alumina rose more than threefold and production of aluminum gained almost fivefold after Rio's purchase last year of Alcan. ... Uranium production was mixed, with a 26% drop at the Ranger mine in the Northern Territory and a 55% increase at the Rossing mine in Namibia. The Ranger operation was affected excess water in the open pit that restricted access to the higher-grade ore, while higher grades at Rossing led to an increase in production.

The Australian - Rio Tinto may float US coal assets

Last year ABN Amro estimated the sale value of Rio Tinto's US coal assets at $US4.1 billion, though prices for the commodity have since more than doubled year-on-year. Cloud Peak Energy produced 132.3 million tonnes of coal in 2007, making it the second-largest producer in the US by volume. Rio Tinto chief financial officer Guy Elliott said Rio Tinto continues to explore the possible sale of some or all of its US coal assets as part of the group-wide divestment program, as well as the IPO option.

Public Opinion - River Murray: greenwashing

Unbelievably, the Rann Government in SA is spinning the ecological disaster in the Lower Lakes of the Murray River in the form of water dreaming. It is painting a rosy future even as it plans to built a weir at Wellington to protect Adelaide's water supply. This is one issue where the state government's spin is at odds with reality. As a response to the community protests on the issue, its spin highlights its failure on water issues and its strong greenwashing. Lake Alexandrina is now 35cm below sea level, and acidification would be triggered at negative 1m, which is estimated in June 2009.

In contrast, Senator Wong, the federal Water Minister, has effectively written off the lakes, saying there was not enough water in the River Murray system to fill them.

Peak Energy - Wavegen Commences Operation In Scotland

Peak Energy - Crowing About CTL

Peak Energy - How to Travel by Cargo Ship

Peak Energy - Peak Gorillas

Gav and Aeldric,

Thanks for all the efforts in posting the last two Bullroarers. I note that each has attracted "Zero Comments"...

Maybe you should include some articles about the Olympics?
;-)

August tends to be a bit of a dead month, both traffic and comments wise.

Usually I blame this on mid-winter apathy in the southern hemisphere and everyone in the northern hemisphere being on holiday.

Having the oil price sliding doesn't help matters - interest in peak oil seems to be correlated to the oil price quite strongly.

Plus we haven't had much original content lately, and thus not much front page exposure and the traffic it brings.

Oh well - everyone will wake up again in a month or so presumably.

I haven't had much to say because I've been too busy being stunned by the cluelessness of TBTB.

Courier Mail - Plantations to yield clean green fuel

'A hectare of the trees can produce 5500 litres of biodiesel a year – enough to run 100 cars for a year.'

Correct me if I am wrong, but 5500L/100 cars = 55L per car. So unless you are only going to drive for 1 week a year, I don't see these biofuels being particularly helpful in replacing oil, at least not for a car dependent society.

Its amazing how little proof reading (or fact checking) journalists and editors do really (I might note than when compiling stories I don't vet them - I just collect what I can in the time available and post it as a representative sample of what the press are saying).

I wonder how much petrol the average vehicle gets through - I'd say my family car gets refilled about once every 3 weeks - so 5500L would last me about 5 years (or 5 people with similar consumption 1 year).

Biofuels will never be a replacement for oil, but I figure they will be useful in rural areas at least.

The cities will have to go electric and more efficient in their use of energy.

According to the ABS, in 2004,

- there were 13.5 million vehicles
- of which 79% were private passenger vehicles, or 10.7 million
- these passenger vehicles burned through 14,882 million litres of petrol
- which is 1,390lt per passenger vehicle annually
- however, there were in 2001 about 7.4 million households in Australia, so that we had 1.4 vehicles per household
- thus about 2,000lt of fuel burned per household
- therefore, 55lt of biofuel, if it were exactly as efficient as petrol and diesel, would last the average household about a week and a half.
- A hectare providing 5,500lt would keep 2.75 households going.

Thus, we would need 20 million hectares of this magical biofuel. That is, basically 1 hectare per Australian resident. This would be 200,000km2, which is most of the area of the state of Victoria. Australia's area of 7.686 million km2 is only 6% arable land, or 460,000km2, so we'd be using half our arable land for biofuels.

Which seems a bit ambitious. Plus the people we export food to might get upset; in FY2001-2 we produced 42 million tonnes of grains, sufficient to feed 126 million people. So that trying to keep on truckin' but with biofuels would make about 50 million people go hungry.

Journos are so bloody lazy.

I live on a couple of acres of cleared land, which according to your figures Kiashu, I could fuel our own car plus a couple of other peoples. That might not be a bad idea in the years ahead.

Anyone out there who grows their own biofuels?

The figures assume that the "5,500lt per hectare" are correct. The rest of the article was nonsense, so we should be sceptical of those figures, too. After all, we're not told if the stuff requires any processing, ie is the 5,500lt gross or net?

You are wise to be skeptical

From my favourite site on all things "energy crop" related
New Crop Resource Online Program

Pongamia pinnata
Yields and Economics
Trees of ten reach adult height in 4 or 5 years, bearing at the age of 4–7 years. A single tree is said to yield 9–90 kg seed per tree, indicating a yield potential of 900––9000 kg seed/ha, 25% of which might be rendered as oil (assuming 100 trees/ha). In general, Indian mills extract 24–27.5% oil, village crushers, 18–22% oil.

Lets be optimistic and round that up to 10,000kg ... at 25% recovered oil thats 2500 kg which assuming a density not dissimilar to water is a volume of 2500L (its density would have to be half that of water to get the volumes described in the Courier article.

NOTE that this is the extreme upper end of the yield for the species which appears to vary by a factor of ten.

If you do refer to this site, note that for some strange reason (perhpas intelligable to US citizens) wieghts marked as MT mean Metric Tonnes and not Million or Mega Tonnes.

One from Dave Bell: The Daily Telegraph - Tricycles to fit the bill for posties

POSTIES may soon be riding tricycles as part of an Australia Post move to combat the rising cost of petrol and attract more staff. The new bikes boast electric motors which cruise at a top speed of 20km/h and are to be tried in Sydney soon. Unions oppose the changes, saying traditional motorbikes are still the most efficient way of delivering mail.

Yesterday an Australia Post spokesman said the move was a way of "searching for initiatives to make its fleet more energy efficient" and trials would include several new modes, including electric bicycles and tricycles. However the postal workers union said the bikes are to widen the reach for staff who will not have to hold a motorcycle licence.

"This is all about attracting staff using different modes of delivery because of the problems Australia Post is having attracting staff with motorbike licences," CEPU Communications Branch organiser Peter Chaloner said. "They are doing this to reduce costs, minimise potential accidents on the road and also reduce fuel costs.