The Bullroarer - Thursday 19th June 2008

Otago Daily Times - Fuel pricing

The scheme being used in Western Australia called "FuelWatch" has some potential benefits for New Zealand motorists, if it can be adapted for local conditions and introduced here with the support of all the oil companies.

ABC - Oil imports fall as drivers change road behaviour

The rising cost of fuel is forcing drivers to find more fuel-efficient modes of transport or go off the road altogether, according to the latest petroleum import figures.

The fall in petroleum imports is paralleled by other trends, such as growing demand for smaller vehicles, hybrids and gas-powered engines, and growing numbers opting to catch or train or take a bus.

The Age - 'Fuel excise should be cut by 10 cents'

The fuel excise should be cut by 10 cents a litre to give motorists instant relief from high petrol prices, a Liberal backbencher says.

Victorian MP Chris Pearce says the Rudd government should cut the excise by twice as much as opposition leader Brendan Nelson proposed in his budget reply speech.

"I want Kevin Rudd to go inside to the House of Representatives this morning and I want him to introduce legislation that would cut the fuel excise by 10 cents a litre," Mr Pearce told reporters in Canberra.

ABC - Oil prices climb despite US drilling debate

The US oil drilling debate is having little effect on oil prices, which have headed back up overnight.

The spot price for West Texas crude has jumped $US2.55 a barrel overnight to $US136.54.

The latest weekly measure shows a dip in US stockpiles of crude.

And there are fresh worries about a strike in the key African oil-producing nation of Nigeria.

In Australia, petrol prices hit record highs yesterday, and the Royal Automobile Club of Victoria's David Cumming says there could be more pain to come for motorists.

"We still haven't peaked, the Singapore wholesale price is still higher than what our wholesale prices are in Australia, there's a bit more to flow through," he said.

NZ Herald - Are you annoyed at the old style, cheap light bulb is being phased out?

The Government wants to cut lighting energy consumption by 20 per cent by 2015 and from late next year incandescent lightbulbs will be banished.

Radio NZ - Bush urges Congress to end offshore oil drill ban

US President Bush has urged Congress to end a ban on offshore oil drilling, to reduce dependence on imports.

Mr Bush said opening federal lands off the US coast, where oil drilling has been banned by both a presidential executive order and a congressional moratorium, could yield about 18 billion barrels of oil.

That would meet current US consumption for about 2½ years, though it would be likely to take a decade or more to find the oil and produce it.

Stuff.co.nz - Power crisis is over, so let's tackle real issues

If you really want something to worry about, can I recommend forgetting about the power "crisis" and concentrating instead on the recession we are living through.

ABC - WA could seek emergency fuel

The Premier, Alan Carpenter, says the Western Australian Government may seek access to national emergency fuel supplies if the gas crisis worsens.

The Age - Oil climbs as output to stay steady

Crude oil futures rose for the first time in four days after a statement that US President George W. Bush is not expecting announcements of increased oil production at a June 22 conference in Saudi Arabia.

''No one is expecting to see announcements of increased production,'' White House spokesman Tony Fratto said. The meeting to discuss ways to stabilize prices will be held in the Red Sea port of Jeddah and involve producers, major industrial nations and banks.

Scoop.co.nz - Remarks By John McCain On Energy Security
For those who have wondered if presidential candidates have the least clue about energy issues:

[.....]
But to make the great turn away from carbon-emitting fuels, we will need all the inventive genius of which America is capable. We will need as well an economy strong enough to support our nation's great shift toward clean energy. And this gives us only further incentive to protect ourselves from the sudden shocks and ever-rising prices that come with our dependence on foreign oil.

Up to a point, these sudden rises in the price of oil are explainable in the terms of basic economics. When demand exceeds supply, prices always rise, and this has happened very dramatically in the demand for oil. Two powerful forces in the oil market today are China and India, nations in which a third of humanity is suddenly entering the industrial era -- with all the cars, construction, and consumption of oil that involves.
[.....]

Stuff.co.nz - No oil - what happens next?

A move to establish the Bay of Islands as a group of ‘Transition Towns’ is gathering momentum.

The thrust is to promote a lifestyle which will build a community that is in a strong position to face challenges ahead.

The group wants people to think seriously about key factors:

Herald Sun - Petrol passes $1.70 in Melbourne

News.com.au - Petrol pain hits mortgage belt

BATTLERS in outerlying suburbs are being hit the hardest by rising fuel prices, as their distance from the city leaves them little option in curbing fuel use, an economist says.

Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan says the impact of the latest round of fuel hikes had left two distinct groups of households - those that can and are cutting back on fuel consumption and those that can't.

Mr Hassan says the second group is facing a "fuel-constrained" world in which they have less to spend on other household items as their petrol bill increases.

The Age - Petrol producers warn against drilling

Petroleum producers have warned drilling new offshore oil reserves in Australia is likely to be risky and costly.

Soaring global oil prices is prompting producers to consider exploration of new reserves.

But the Australian Petroleum and Production Association is warning that exploration and drilling costs also are rising and new reserves are likely to be found in deep water.

NewsTalk ZB - Transport Group Wants Motorway Projects Shelved

Public transport proponents want all motorway projects in the Auckland region put on hold and funds diverted to the electrification of the rail network as a way to combat soaring petrol prices.

Cameron Pitches from the Campaign for Better Transport says the Manukau Harbour crossing and the $2 billion Waterview project should be shelved.

He claims the Government does not have a contingency plan at all and it needs to think of ways to reduce the reliance on oil.

Stuff.co.nz - Concrete revival as steel hits the roof

Unprecedented cost and supply pressures on building materials such as steel girders could soon fuel a boom in concrete-dominant projects, says the management of construction giant Fletcher Building.

Infrastructure chief executive Mark Binns said the surge in oil prices continued to drive up raw material costs to such an extent that fixed-price contracts were fast becoming extinct and concrete-heavy designs more cost-effective.
[.....]
"Concrete relative to steel is fast becoming a more cost-effective option. People will be too scared to keep designing in steel. Then there's the knock-on effect, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a modest increase in concrete."

Any material that is petroleum-based or reliant on long-distance transport is subject to cost pressures during periods of rising oil prices.

Otago Daily Times - Rising fuel prices hurting tourism

ABC - Rail boss warns train lines reaching capacity

The Chief Executive of Connex is warning that Melbourne's train lines are rapidly reaching capacity.

CEO, Bruce Hughes, says the Sydenham train line will reach capacity before the end of this year. And eight other lines will be in the same predicament in five years.

There has been a 33 per cent increase in patronage since 2005.

The news just keeps getting more interesting.

Take the suggestion that those who live in the outer suburbs, far from public transport are "facing a "fuel-constrained" world in which they have less to spend on other household items as their petrol bill increases" ( http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,25479,23884172-5013951,00.... ). Last year that would have been a wild-and-whacky comment from an extremist sush as James Howard Kunstler ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Howard_Kunstler )

Today it is a matter-of-fact statement from a senior economist at Westpac.

Three years ago I was blogging about this stuff, now I am watching it happen. It almost feels unreal - I almost feel like pinching myself.

Headlines about calls for motorways being cancelled, people cutting back on driving, rail lines overcrowded.... and we won't even discuss the fuel and food riots happening overseas.

It is worth noting that ,as far as possible, I am confining myself to local news stories. So do make sure you look at Drumbeat to see the big picture. I am also finding that there are now so many stories that I cut many - I simply don't bother with stories that are duplicates of previous stories, or stories that are so common that you can't avoid seeing them somewhere else.

aeldric.

'Oh the humanity' as the broadcaster said.

Rule 1: don't put in the charge the people who completely failed to see it coming.

Not all Economists are making accurate pronouncements.

As I mentioned in yesterday's Bullroarer, the No.2 headline above "Oil imports fall as drivers change road behaviour" is completely bogus.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics monthly petroleum import numbers show wide month-by-month variability. The May 07 figure is randomly high and the May 08 figure, while low, does not represent an exceptional downward movement. (Nov 05 was lower, for example.)

Commsec is having a lend of us, for some reason, and the ABC is shovelling it straight through to us.

It is certainly *not* a statistically significant trend of -28%, and does *not* disprove the (as the ABC puts it)

"long-held view that Australians are unable to kick their "addiction" to fuel-guzzling cars."

A link to the ABS data is http://abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/5439.0May%202008?OpenDoc....

Thanks for this observation - it supports some speculation that a friend made yesterday.

From reader Bellistner:

"Workers laid off as business struggles in WA"
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2007/s2278980.htm

"KERRY O'BRIEN: Western Australia's gas plant explosion off the north-west coast has thrown the state economy into turmoil over the past two weeks, with key industries struggling to deal with energy shortages.

Given WA's part in the resources boom, it's only a matter of time before it impacts on the national economy, and the Prime Minister described
that impact potentially today as huge."

Not ANZ-specific except in likely effect on oil prices, but...

Nigerian attack closes oilfield

Oil company Royal Dutch Shell says it has temporarily stopped production at its main offshore oilfield in Nigeria, following a militant attack.

The raid took place overnight on the Bonga oil platform about 120km (75 miles) off the coast of the Niger Delta, the company said.

It is the first attack on the oilfield, which normally produces about 200,000 barrels a day.

Attacks in the inshore Niger Delta have helped drive up the world oil prices.

Nigeria's valuable offshore oilfields had always been considered difficult for most militants to attack, the BBC's Alex Last reports from Lagos.

But for the first time in the early hours, gunmen in boats reached the Bonga installation, Shell's flagship project.

A Nigerian navy spokesman confirmed reports that militants had kidnapped a US captain from a separate vessel on their way back from the attack.

Sophisticated

The gunmen failed to get inside the platform, but attacked a key vessel used for production storage and offloading, a Shell spokesman said.

Several people were reported to have been injured.

Militants from the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (Mend) claimed the attack, the Associated Press news agency reported.

Mend says it is campaigning for a greater share of the region's oil wealth to be kept by local people, but the government says they are criminals motivated by the ransoms they receive from oil companies.

The shutdown has cut a tenth of Nigeria's total output in one go.

This comes on top of a reduction of at least 20% in recent years following inland attacks.

Our correspondent says Bonga was new, expensive and working well despite the difficulties and repeated attacks affecting the company's inshore operations in the Delta.

The militants in the Delta are getting more sophisticated and better equipped and armed, he says.

Now they have proven that in terms of distance at least, all of Nigeria's facilities are within their reach.

So, 200,000bbl/day gone, that neatly balances out the Saudis' planned rise in production in July.

It should bring oil up over $140/bbl on the markets tomorrow.

Looks like Brent and other prices spiked up over $4 but have started falling again.

Hard to know what 'damage to a vessel' means. The fact that prices are not rising further suggests the damage is not that great and that they will be up and running again within days? Who knows..

Indeed, they're vague about the damage, but that's SOP for the corporate types.

The thing is that even if there's no significant damage, it raises the cost of operations for the company. If you were an oil engineer, would you want to work in the Niger Delta where you might be killed or kidnapped? So then they have to offer higher wages, more security, more bribes to the local police and army, and so on.

And this increased production cost gets passed on to others...