The Bullroarer - Monday 2nd June 2008

SMH: Govt 'backing down on renewable energy'

The Rudd government has been accused of neglecting to set aside money for renewable energy. Treasurer Wayne Swan has been criticised for a budget decision to means test the $8,000 rebate for installing solar energy panels. But that's just one of several blows to the renewable energy sector, University of New South Wales (UNSW) senior lecturer Mark Diesendorf says.

"Even worse is the government's inexplicable refusal to allocate anything in 2008-09 from the much-vaunted Renewable Energy Fund ($500 million over six years)," Dr Diesendorf said in a statement. "Yet the Clean Coal Fund ($500 million over eight years) will pay out $35 million in 2008-09. "This suggests a bias against renewable energy compared with coal."

Herald Sun: In the grip of oil

THERE may be a debate about the cause but there is no doubt about the effect: the world is on the verge of an energy crisis. The signs are everywhere.

This week, Qantas boss Geoff Dixon said the airline would ground planes, cancel routes, slash jobs and freeze senior pay packets to combat rising jet fuel prices. Mr Dixon lamented that Qantas had "no control" over rising fuel costs - sentiments echoed by other airlines such as Air France KLM, which has flagged a sharp decline in operating profits.

Motorists are also feeling unprecedented pain at the pump, with petrol prices hovering near the $1.60 a litre mark in Melbourne this week. Elsewhere, Andrew Liveris, the Australian boss of US paint, agricultural feeds and plastics maker Dow Chemical, warned that the US is facing "a true energy crisis" as he flagged price rises for the company's products of up to 20 per cent in response.

Adelaide Now: Peak oil protest in the city

PEAK-HOUR traffic was faced with the looming reality of "peak oil" this morning. About 15 concerned demonstrators marched at the intersection of King William St and North Tce between 8am and 9am to raise awareness that petrol will eventually run out.

You can also watch ASPO's Stuart McCarthy in a presentation to Engineers Australia in Brisbane earlier in May
(choose the presentation title from the May list):

Peak Oil: The broader sustainability and engineering implications in South East Queensland


From ASPO's own Elliot Fishman, in the Canberra Times: Rising crude oil prices have the Govt over a barrel

Under mounting pressure from high global oil prices, the Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd recently declared that there is no ''silver bullet'' to the skyrocketing cost of petrol. The blistering pace of fuel price rises has lead to talk of reducing the excise on fuel. In his budget reply speech, Brendan Nelson proposed a five cent reduction in the excise, leading Joe Hockey to argue that fuel prices would always be lower under a Coalition government. ''We can legitimately and will run the line that petrol will always be cheaper under the Coalition than it will be under the Labor Party,'' he said.

Greens NZ Blog: Joe Bennett receives a lesson in the economics of oil this morning in the Dominion Post.

Joe Bennett receives a lesson in the economics of oil this morning in the Dominion Post.

"Tell me, I shouted above the din of hooves, why the price of petrol is soaring like the lark. Why, every time I stop at the pumps, someone is up a ladder changing the price. It’s killing me, Mr Economist. My car is not a luxury, but a necessity. Without a car this town is uninhabitable. The mall where I worship is too distant to walk to."

Scoop NZ: Urgent power savings required to avert power cuts

Blackouts in the North Island are very possible, the Employers & Manufacturers Association (Northern) says, and probable in the South Island if huge power savings are not made immediately.

"Where's the sense of urgency over the power blackouts we're facing?" asked Alasdair Thompson, EMA's chief executive. "We can see there's no political appetite for panic but the country needs leadership now to save power. "We are calling on all our business members to make all the workplace savings possible. "Households need to take special care with all power usage that does not jeopardize family health. "The country is in fact facing not one but three power problems.

Stuff.co.NZ: Restart eases fears of blackouts

Restarting part of the mothballed New Plymouth power station will "help a whole lot" in the power shortage, according to some analysts, but others say blackouts remain a risk and high spot prices may get worse.

NewsTalkZB NZ: Retailers urged to help customers save power

The Australia: Push for ethanol hits grain supplies

RISING demand for ethanol in petrol, driven by the green policies of state and federal governments, threatens to cause grain shortages that will challenge the grain and grazing sectors and drive food prices higher.

Farming industry leaders and analysts say the push by governments to ensure 10 per cent of petrol is made up of biofuels such as ethanol will leave the nation critically short of grain.

They claim that despite assurances by the NSW and Queensland governments and the biofuels industry that it would use only plant waste for ethanol, tens of thousands of tonnes of animal feed-quality grain and wheat starch are being used to make the taxpayer-subsidised fuel.

Australian Lot Feeders Association director Dougal Gordon said the nation's biggest ethanol producer, Manildra, had been purchasing up to 50,000 tonnes of feedgrain-quality wheat a year for the past five years for ethanol production, taking it away from use for feeding animals.

"This is grain, not starch by-product," Mr Gordon said.

"The NSW Government says it is all by-product, so there is no fuel-versus-food issue, but that's wrong."

Courier Mail: Sugar prices not so sweet

QUEENSLAND'S sugar growers increasingly could diversify into more lucrative crops given fears global sugar prices are set to continue their slide as a prolonged supply glut is worsened by easing demand.

Sugar prices have been under pressure, largely from oversupply, for some time but prices for July delivery hit a seven-month low on Thursday and the outlook for the year looks bleak, experts say.

NZ Herald: Tourism hit by fuel costs, economic downturn

The last time the tourism industry was hit by an economic downturn was after the Asian crisis in 2000.

But that will be just a blip compared to what operators are now facing, says Paul Yeo, head of the inbound tour operators council and the travel agents' association.

SMH: Origin for sale, but only at right price

Power generator and retailer Origin Energy says the company is always for sale at the right price, but the price will have to be a lot more than $15.50 per share.

Origin managing director Grant King said its coal seam gas assets now made the company a far more valuable business.

Greens Blog NZ: Sue Kedgley on Peak Food

Sue Kedgley spoke at the Farmers Market Biennial Conference yesterday on Peak Food:

"We are in danger of becoming a cash crop nation –producing dairy and to a lesser extent meat for export –while other sectors are being eroded by cheap imports. We import 2.8 million tonnes of food each year — bananas from Equador, garlic from China, wheat from Australia–and our imports are growing every year."

ABC: Petrol price surge feared after Qld move

Petrol prices on the New South Wales north coast could be set to jump by as much as 8.5 cents a litre following a move by Queensland to protect its fuel subsidy.

The Queensland Government yesterday announced it would stop interstate drivers filling up with subsidised fuel as part of an attempt to stop fuel companies rorting the 8.345-cents-a-litre subsidy.

The Age: Food and fuel crisis must be solved: MP

Food crops must be kept separate from crops used for biofuels in order to put a stop to global food shortages, a Rudd government minister has warned.

Agriculture Minister Tony Burke says the challenge for countries around the world, as they face an increasing shortages in food, is to balance the harnessing of biofuel with global food demands.

Courier Mail: Subsidy to push up food cost

A NEW scheme to ensure only Queenslanders benefit from the state government's fuel subsidy could push up the price of food and other goods.

Under the proposal announced by Premier Anna Bligh yesterday, Queensland motorists will swipe a bar code on their drivers licence at the point of sale to receive the 8.35 cent a litre subsidy.

The subsidy is currently included in the sale price of fuel, but a government inquiry last year found motorists have not been receiving the full benefit.

The Age: You can forget the $49 air fare

The soaring price of oil spells turbulence ahead for budget airlines.

IF THE airline industry was a child of yours, you would be at your wits' end. As it makes its way to adulthood as a corporate citizen, it constantly finds trouble. Euphoric sweet spots where all is right in the world are inevitably followed by crises of ever-growing magnitude: wars, global disease outbreaks, economic recessions and now the mother of all shocks, for the fourth time in 40 years, the oil problem.

The Age: Virgin turbulence on fuel

No need to worry:
The West: Petrol cost due for a fall, says economist

Petrol prices will tumble within months as consumption dries up and speculators move out of world markets, a senior economist predicts.

With bowser prices averaging 156.4¢ a litre in Perth today, AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver said at the weekend there were encouraging signs that global oil prices may be about to turn around.

Retailers urged to help customers save power.

This could be the start of a major shift. If dollar profit is the primary aim of power retailers then it should be decoupled from units sold, either kilowatt hours or cubic metres of gas, maybe even litres of petrol eventually. For example a target could be that the average 3br house used 10 kwh/day of electricity with say 2 kwh of that off-peak. Achieving that would earn the company some kind of bonus or inside advantage.

Initially this could be done with tiered usage pricing (as well as on/off peak) and remote switching of air conditioners. Later on energy retailers could do a lot of stuff out their own pocket such as solar PV or hot water, home insulation and smart meters. I don't think feed-in tariffs and means tested grants are the way to go. BTW amount-tiered pricing and insulation makeovers by electricity retailers are done in Scandinavia and North America but not Down Under to my knowledge. They seem to be way ahead of us on this though we may have the jump in water conservation.

If dollar profit is the primary aim of power retailers then it should be decoupled from units sold, either kilowatt hours or cubic metres of gas, maybe even litres of petrol eventually.

Would be very progressive, but it seems to me that no privatised power supplier will ever shift their business model so much as to significantly affect their income. They may make token efforts, green-washing enough perhaps to keep politicians and consumer groups off their backs, but that would be about all, one would suspect.

I read somewhere recently where the initial block of power in the UK attracts the highest rate, rather than tiered to charge more for heavy users. Amazing approach, to say the least - and a burden on the poor.

Cargill,
The glowing example of what can be done with privatised power suppliers is to be seen in Arnie Schwarzenegger's California. Simplifying somewhat, Arnie's team has put in place a scheme that rewards electricity suppliers for saving power by giving them back $1 out of every $2 saved. There is a bit more to it than that but I have to admire the comprehensive and effective arrangements that make conservation the number one source of power in California. It can be done! See http://www.californiaenergyefficiency.com/index.shtml for more details.
Cheers, Mark

Hmmm ... lots of fine-sounding bureaucratic pronouncements there. I especially liked

• Mount a "Project Apollo" effort to deliver zero net energy new homes by 2020.
• Transform home improvement markets to apply whole-house solutions to existing homes.
• Revolutionize the energy efficiency and management by consumers of “plug load” devices.
• Mobilize state and local building officials to achieve and maintain very high levels of energy efficiency.

I couldn't find the bit which says in Plain English "the IOUs (investor-owned utilities) will build a long-term business model that leads to steadily decreasing income by 2020, and where that loss of income will be paid for (or even, won't be paid for) by the taxpayer." Nor did I see the bit explaining how the Californian consumer was going to be convinced to change patterns of behaviour that are generations old.

Maybe I am just cynical, having been a bureaucrat for 25 years.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,23793691-7583,00.html is about the carbon price. The bit that got me was this:

Treasury has enlisted the aid of the three major computable general equilibrium (CGE) models available to assess the effects of different emissions cuts and prices on the national economy.

The CGE models from Monash, ABARE and Reserve Bank Board member Warwick McKibbin ...

So Treasury doesn't have its own model(s) of the economy! Unbelievable. And what are they going to assume about the world economy? BAU? Even though Australia is an energy exporter, it is a bit hard to see how things will turn out here if most of the world economy goes pear-shaped.

The ABC "Big Ideas" radio series has a nice sensible talk given recently at the Sydney Writers Festival by Prof John Gray, on neo-cons and other optimists. You can listen to it at:
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/bigideas/stories/2008/2257930.htm. Learn what the lady who invented Iraq thought would happen if it got democracy.

Minister Tony Burke said:

As people get wealthier the demand for food increases and the demand for protein and meat increases

There are a few reasons why peak oil means we don't need to worry about climate change. The obvious one is that we aren't going to extract as much carbon from the ground as even the lowest possibility considered in the IPCC report. The second is that if we're poorer we'll get back to eating our veggies instead of lots of meat. The third reason is that it is a waste of time because no government is going to impose additional pain on voters who are getting munched up by peak oil.

I have my own extra reason that I don't expect anyone else to believe. I reckon we can put up with any amount of warming, (remember that warm means wet). However we are due for an ice age. Now have a look at Dr John Church's sea level graph for the last 140,000 years, the 3rd slide in his presentation to Greenhouse 2007: http://www.greenhouse2007.com/downloads/keynotes/071002_Church.pdf. At the end of the last interglacial the sea-level suddenly switched from gradual rise to rapid fall (1cm a year = a lot of ice building up). If it was all just Milankovitch cycles you'd expect more gradual transitions. Something has to happen to flip the world into a different mode. One possibility that makes a tiny bit of sense is that when the Arctic oceans looses its summer ice then a lot more snow starts falling on the surrounding land, reflecting more sunlight. Well guess what just happened in this interglacial, followed by a freezing winter in Asia and North America. This is a pure guess, but the fact remains that we want our greenhouse blanket to stay cosy till we work out fusion energy so we can grow our food inside with artificial warmth, water, etc.

You're forgetting that only 55% of greenhouse gases (weighted by warming contribution over a century) are from fossil fuel burning. The rest are from deforestation, nitrous oxide from animal manure and excessive artificial fertiliser, methane from livestock, and so on.

The lowest IPCC-reviewed scenarios have 2050 greenhouse emission levels being 15% of those of 2000, giving us 2-2.6C of warming. If we stopped burning fossil fuels today we'd reach 45% of 2000's levels.

Just the deforestation gives us 18% of emissions.

We don't need to burn fossil fuels to put as much greenhouse gases in the air as in some of the IPCC-reviewed scenarios. The rest of the things we do are more than enough. Burning the stuff just makes it really really easy to blow through the limits.

Your guesses about the climate and its trends and feedbacks I leave uncommented on to stand on their own for what they're worth.

"We can legitimately and will run the line that petrol will always be cheaper under the Coalition than it will be under the Labor Party" : Joe Hocky: Canberra Times

Just like interest rates?! Can he get any less original and any more insincere! But then it's just a line to run...

Hmmm - if we compare petrol prices under Keating vs petrol prices under Howard we find ????

How do they come up with this bollocks ? Does anyone listen (other than journalists in the need of new material) or do they just feel the need to talk for the sake of talking ?

If society can be said to have a memory, how short is it?

Is this why the tactic of just repeating plausible lies or populist palaver long enough works? Eventually we just forget the original facts/situation? In a consumerist materialist society, what is the motivation to live outside of the present, and to honestly reflect and analyse?

Peak Oil might finally be getting some traction in the press and with the public because the accepted story/dialogue/script is now so blatantly not credible.

But our leaders have rehearsed from the old script, so perhaps they can't help but repeat these inane uttering's.

Re deforestation one of Prof Garnaut's ideas was that if we slipped PNG a few bucks they would conserve large areas of forest on Australia's behalf. This idea already had a few problems on questions of responsibility and growth in emissions but now even the basic concept looks dubious. It seems PNG is being chopped down like there's no tomorrow
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/06/02/2262808.htm

Apart from felling aged tropical timber there is also palm oil planting for biofuel. Funny I thought they would be happy to live in bark huts while we ply the suburbs in shiny 4WDs.