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16 comments on The Bullroarer - Thursday 22nd May 2008

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Phil Hart on May 22, 2008 - 8:02pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

We already know Martin 'just find more' Ferguson has a plan:

http://anz.theoildrum.com/node/3815

The other good news is that Martin Ferguson is also well aware of our reliance on imported petroleum:

"Without new oil discoveries Australia could face a trade deficit in petroleum products of more than $25 billion by 2015 and domestic oil production could be as little as 20 per cent of our needs compared with 80 per cent in the 1990s."

He even has a plan to deal with this oil import vulnerability. The bad news is that it looks like this (hat tip to Matt in Sydney and Stuart in Brisbane):

Plan A: "Our future depends on finding Australia’s next Bass Strait".
Plan B: See Plan A.

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Brisvegas on May 23, 2008 - 12:43am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The worse news is that JFM ('just find more') can't use a calculator. The oft-quoted "$25 billion petroleum trade deficit by 2015" figure comes from Belinda Robinson's presentation to the APPEA annual conference last year, and assumed an oil price of $US55/bbl. Given the current price trend, we're more likely to see a figure of around $100 billion, equivalent to 10% of current GDP.

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