The Bullroarer - Thursday 22nd May 2008

The Age - Oil price fuels RBA woes

[.....]
For the Reserve Bank, the more worrying aspect, though, is what effect oil will have on inflation. When the March quarter inflation rate came in at 4.2% for the year, petrol accounted for nearly 0.7 percentage points of that amount.

TV NZ - Rail gets lion's share of transport

The government is continuing its investment in rebuilding New Zealand's transport infrastructure in Budget 2008.

The recent $665 million buy-back of the rail and ferry network from Toll Holdings forms a major part of the commitment and will see the services return to public hands on June 30.

SMH - Farmers hit hard by soaring fuel prices

The soaring price of diesel is driving down farmers' profits and forcing them to think twice about planting crops, despite attractive commodity prices.

NZ Herald - Taranaki oil field expected to yield another 5m barrels of oil

The Tui oil field joint venture said today it expects to extract an additional 5 million barrels from the offshore Taranaki field.

The Age - Record fuel prices still cheaper than Europe

Australian drivers may be paying record prices at the petrol bowser, but they're still paying less than motorists in Europe and Canada.

ABC - Small, fuel efficient cars popular

Tasmania has gone against the national trend in new car sales.

The Bureau of Statistics says sales of new vehicles in Tasmania during April increased by 1.1 per cent in trend terms.

Nationally, sales fell by 0.4 per cent.

The State President of the Motor Traders Association, Justin Rooke, says smaller, more fuel efficient vehicles are the sales leaders in Tasmania.

The Daily Post NZ - Locals feel pain as fuel prices rise

Rotorua people are paying higher prices for goods and services and some have even lost their jobs as businesses struggle with soaring fuel prices.

One haulage company even fears its fuel costs could rise $1 million this year.

ABC - Local market falls as oil price rises

The rise in the price of oil has fuelled inflation fears in the US and sent the Australian share market lower.

News.com.au - Experts fear global oil slump

THE world is on the verge of an oil-driven economic crisis to rival those of the 1970s and 1880s, experts say.

Rapidly rising unemployment, mass bankruptcies, business collapses, out of control inflation and sky-high interest rates are just some of the consequences for Australia - and the rest of the world - if oil hits $US200 a barrel.

Scoop.co.nz - Rising Fuel Linked To Bus Fare Increase

The cost of travelling on Whangarei’s public bus service will rise from July 1 with skyrocketing fuel costs linked to the first increase in ticket prices in six years.

SMH - Fuel, food prices 'bite more than rates'

Higher petrol and food prices are having a bigger impact on households than interest rate hikes, a new survey has found.

Borrowers and non-borrowers also believe their financial situation has worsened during the past year.

ABC Radio Australia - Indonesian fuel to rise by nearly a third: report

Demonstrators across the country have slammed the government's plans to raise the subsidised cost of fuel to protect the budget from record world oil prices.

TV NZ - IMF gives NZ economy the thumbs up

The International Monetary Fund has given the government's handling of the economy a tick.

It says current policies to deal with rising inflation and a widening current account deficit are appropriate.

The Australian - Burma fearful of oil grab by US aid

HOPES that UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon could today broker a deal to get aid flowing into cyclone-hit Burma looked grim last night, after the junta cited fears of an American invasion when it yesterday blocked US naval ships and helicopters from delivering supplies.

On the eve of Mr Ban's visit to Burma, the New Light of Myanmar, a mouthpiece for the ruling junta, said US naval ships and helicopters poised offshore would not be allowed to deliver aid to cyclone victims - citing fears of a US invasion aimed at grabbing the country's oil reserves.

Scoop.co.nz - Rural people using the internet to save on fuel

Rural people are increasingly turning to the internet in response to rising fuel costs, according to rural broadband provider Farmside.

During April, as fuel prices rose weekly1, the Farmside Contact Centre experienced a 97% increase in rural broadband enquiries with a similar pattern emerging through May, says Farmside sales and marketing director, Nick Carter.

"Many of our new customers are citing rising fuel costs as one of the main reasons for getting satellite or wireless broadband", he says.

"They realise they can save money by using the internet for errands that have traditionally required a personal trip, like banking, shopping, vehicle registration, study or even doing tax returns.

ABC - Energy industry 'unsure' about emissions trading

A survey has found the power generation sector continues to struggle to make investment decisions because of uncertainty over the future emissions trading scheme.

The PricewaterhouseCoopers 2008 Utilities Survey says that compliance with environmental regulations is the power industry's biggest challenge in the period ahead.

But PWC's resources leader Derek Kidley says the design of an emissions scheme remains a key concern for the utilities sector.

"It's important to get that design clear as early as possible so that investment decisions can be made in an industry where to build," he said.

"Power generation capacity and new infrastructure obviously takes a number of years."

Mr Kidley says the details of the scheme are lacking.

With the countdown on to the ETS there is a huge amount to be sorted out. For example like how rubbery offsets will be managed. My suggestion ...leave them out.

I presume the conduct of the auction will be modelled on the sulphur dioxide market administered by the US EPA and brokered by an existing exchange. The EU can't tell us yet how a CO2 auction will go. Westpac Bank might think that commodity is worth $19 a tonne but the big emitters could all link hands and publicly say 'our offer is $5'. Or maybe they will collude in back room deals but who is checking?

A major difficulty is that CO2 is a 'divisible good' that requires an allocation rule by the auctioneer. If the auction is for 10 units and one bid is 7 units at $5 and another bid is 8 units at $10 maybe the allocation could be 4 and 6 units apiece at $7 for everybody. Another rule is required for a bidding shortfall. The possibilities are infinite so this needs to be flagged well in advance.

It's my guess that these issues are barely on the radar with less than two years to go. I suspect that big emitters are spending most of their thinking time in Ferguson's office pleading for special deals.

I have a few problems with the proposed carbon trading scheme. The total carbon limit will be met somehow, but by what process. The higher price for petrol could make us buy electric cars, except that there not many can afford a new car. The higher price for power could make us choose a nuclear power supplier, except that won't be allowed. Or a wind farm or thermal electric -- except that there will be hardly any of those by then. Or clean coal - joke. So what will be left is demand destruction. It won't need an election to kill that: just one opinion poll. What sort of prices will we need to actually pay for fossil fuel to get carbon emissions down? My vague memory of guesses from a little while ago are that they were way below the increases we've seen recently, but those increases haven't dinted demand yet.

So it's a joke. It isn't going to happen. We've seen that Rudd is good going forward. Can he conduct an orderly retreat?

Also, a lot of the talk about climate change is on the precautionary principle. In that regard I'd say this: the world has two modes; warm and wet (like the last 7000 years); or cold and dry (most of the last 1.8 million years). As long as the world is warm and wet we have some hope of feeding people. If the next winter in Central Asia is anything like the last one, with energy prices sky high as well, then we can imagine that a lot of people are going to have very little inclination to cooperate with the GHG reduction process. If we are really at the beginning of 10 years of cyclical cooling AND we're going to have world-wide demand destruction caused by peak oil, then the whole climate change bandwagon is just going to bog down in the snow (to extend the analogy to breaking point).

This government is just Swanning about Rudderless. Carbon trading is the Wong thing to do - for all the reasons cited here and elsewhere.

Carbon taxes are a far better bet - to replace income taxes. Then we can all choose how much carbon to burn.

These issues are bewildering. It is possible that depletion and stagflation could achieve carbon cuts unassisted so there is no need to buy carbon permits. In that case there is no revenue to hand back for cleantech and the ETS becomes a white elephant. Nonetheless I think a low key ETS could simmer away provided everyone thinks it is fair ie no giant loopholes.

As to mixed signals from an overdue climate cooling cycle I think $200 oil will make people think hard about carbon alternatives provided they can see that coal is not forever. Sea level rise and the now possibly permanent collapse of the Murray Darling will be a sobering reminder of climate vulnerability. Things could happen so fast that none of clean coal, nuclear, renewables or coal-to-liquids could make a difference, only living with less. The ETS must be set up for the long term even if the economy slows.

Mostly the rise in fossil fuel prices is going to reduce carbon emissions, without the need for extra carbon tax. The exception is coal-to-oil. Apparently Martin Ferguson is a keen supporter of CTL (and GTL, though that seems silly because in at least one respect gas is better than liquid: it's reticulatable). To do enough CTL in Australia to eliminate oil import needs would be massive. That will make it impossible to sign any serious greenhouse gas agreement. So we'll see. Does anybody remember the guy in the Senate hearing saying that oil won't go above $40/barrel because that's when CTL is profitable? What's the current guess, not counting carbon cost?

The right answer for Australia is to switch transport to use compressed natural gas. The previous government actually tried to get that going in 2004, but gave up.

We are in a La-Nina phase at present, so any notion the world is cooling is wrong. Arctic sea ice is at it lowest ever for this time of year.

My big worry is that one or both of the Greenland and W. Antarctic ice sheets starts to collapse. As we saw with other ice sheets this can happen VERY quickly. If sea levels start really rising by more than a few inches a year, politicians may be forced to act. This could take the form of simply turning off coal fired power stations.

A minor correction - arctic sea ice isn't at its lowest ever for this time of year - we'll see how it goes over the summer though.

Definitive data here :

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Hi Big Gav
I wasn't only referring to the extent of sea ice. A crucial factor is that ice that has formed since last September over open water is young and thin; and therefore is much more likely to melt this northern summer.

Source: http://environment.newscientist.com

It seemed like half the paper today was oil related news.

One item worth noting is that the PNG LNG project got approved. No pipeline for us...

Upstream Online - PNG LNG players sign on the line

US supermajor ExxonMobil and its partners have signed an agreement establishing the legal and fiscal framework for the PNG LNG project in Papua New Guinea, allowing the project to proceed to its front-end engineering and development phase.

Plus these from Lee Rhiannon:

Upstream Online - Record petrol prices: government must oil proof NSW

Upstream Online - Greens MP in Coffs Harbour says peak oil demands North Coast rail investment

Kevin Rudd was on the ABC tonight taking questions from the general public (actually more interesting than one would have thought). Tellingly, the first questions were mostly about energy policy and personal transport alternatives.

Rudd says the country "does not" have an energy strategy, but the good news is that "Marn" Ferguson is working on one, and should be able to announce something by the end of the year...

If the Israel-Pakistan-India-China nuclear war hasn't broken out by then, I'll look forward to hearing Marn's thoughts!

"Marn" Ferguson is working on one,

"Australian Federal Energy Policy, 2008.
The Honourable 'Marn" Fergusen, MP.

Problem: rising energy costs.

Solution: burn more coal!"

I'm sure it'll be a ripper read...

We already know Martin 'just find more' Ferguson has a plan:

http://anz.theoildrum.com/node/3815

The other good news is that Martin Ferguson is also well aware of our reliance on imported petroleum:

"Without new oil discoveries Australia could face a trade deficit in petroleum products of more than $25 billion by 2015 and domestic oil production could be as little as 20 per cent of our needs compared with 80 per cent in the 1990s."

He even has a plan to deal with this oil import vulnerability. The bad news is that it looks like this (hat tip to Matt in Sydney and Stuart in Brisbane):

Plan A: "Our future depends on finding Australia’s next Bass Strait".
Plan B: See Plan A.

The worse news is that JFM ('just find more') can't use a calculator. The oft-quoted "$25 billion petroleum trade deficit by 2015" figure comes from Belinda Robinson's presentation to the APPEA annual conference last year, and assumed an oil price of $US55/bbl. Given the current price trend, we're more likely to see a figure of around $100 billion, equivalent to 10% of current GDP.

Is there some news I haven't noticed ?

What's this about nuclear war breaking out ?

Gav, I should have switched the [Irony Switch] on!

But the risk of nuclear war is something we have to be very conscious of. The world is stacked with weapons. The people with the weapons are likely to have faltering economies in the near future. They will feel a growing need to "do something". Remember that Japan thought that attacking the most powerful industrial nation on Earth was a "good idea" after the Americans embargoed their oil supply in 1941...

Maybe not so much a "good idea" as perhaps they thought it the only option.
Perhaps their way of life was non negotiable? ;-)