The Bullroarer - Friday 16th May 2008

Radio Australia - 'Hot' China economy threatens Australian inflation

Australia's top central banker says an overheated Chinese economy is having an impact on Australia's inflation rate. Addressing the economics faculty at Sydney University, Australia's Reserve Bank chairman, Glenn Stevens, has had to defend the central bank's recent tactic of increasing interest rates to keep inflation within a narrow target band. Audience members quizzed the chairman on why rates were being increased while inflation is being driven by soaring global oil prices, which the central bank can not control.

Stuff.co.nz - Power companies 'passing on costs to customers'

Low hydro lake levels and high wholesale electricity prices shouldn't hurt power companies' profits because they are passing costs on to customers, credit rating agency Standard & Poor's says.


Stuff.co.nz - Dollar on brink of big fall - Bagrie

ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie had mixed news for fishermen, painting a downcast picture of the economy at the seafood industry's annual conference.

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"The currency is on the cusp of another big move, given the deterriorating economic outlook," he said, picking the New Zealand dollar to be worth less than US70c by September.
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He blamed emerging markets for the spike in oil prices, and said the barrel price, which hit record levels near US$127 a barrel on Tuesday, would stay up till growth in emerging economies softened.

ABC - Drivers won't benefit from cut to fuel excise: motoring body

The Motor Trades Association says the Federal Opposition's plan to reduce petrol prices will not amount to much of a saving for drivers.

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But the Association's Peter Fitzpatrick says while the cut may be welcomed by some drivers, it would not have a major impact on fuel prices in WA.

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"So the 5 cents a litre, we've already gone up on the international oil price some 23 cents a litre in the last 12 months so I think it would soon be lost."

The Australian - Global economy risks standstill: UN

THE global economy is likely to see an even deeper downturn later this year, and may screech to a virtual standstill if US efforts to kick-start its economy don't work, the United Nations has warned.

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"The recent sharp rise in commodity prices, especially relating to food and energy, seems to be the single most important factor affecting headline inflation around the world," the UN said.

Stuff.co.nz - Air NZ raises trans-Tasman, Pacific fares

Air New Zealand announced its latest price rise today, an average 3 per cent lift in trans-Tasman and Pacific Island airfares to counter rising fuel prices

Scoop.co.nz - $1.75m grant for energy saving technology

Minister of Research, Science and Technology Pete Hodgson is welcoming a $1.75 million grant to the innovative Auckland electric motor company Wellington Drive to research advanced electronics for its products.
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“I recently visited Wellington Drive and I was impressed by what I saw,” said Pete Hodgson. “The company’s radical technology, which uses unique embedded software, results in the motors using about a third of the energy, and requiring significantly less steel and copper, than conventional motors.”

NZ Herald - Milking it? Not us, say farmers as prices soar

Farmers get only the equivalent of a tiny slice of cheese for each block they sell, Federated Farmers says.
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"Transport, processing, energy, and marketing, plus normal margins, are some of the factors which have pushed prices up."

The Age - Jakarta faces backlash over big fuel rise

THE Indonesian Government is offering cash handouts of more than $A1.6 billion to its poorest families in the hope of reducing a violent political backlash against a fuel price rise of up to 30%.

The soaring world oil price is forcing President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono to cut large subsidies that make Indonesia's petrol and kerosene prices the region's lowest, but eat up about 12% of the budget.
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Police fired tear gas yesterday at rock-throwing students protesting against the price hikes in Makassar, the capital of South Sulawesi province, local television said.

Fuel prices have always been politically sensitive in Indonesia. Ten years ago this month an attempt to cut fuel subsidies provoked demonstrations that led to the resignation of President Suharto. President Megawati Sukarnoputri abandoned similar plans after violent protests in 1994.

ABC - Rural crime soars as fuel and fertiliser get more expensive

The cost of fuel, grain and fertiliser are on the rise, and so too is the rate of rural crime in Queensland.

Police say fuel and stock theft on farms has escalated.

Nine MSN - Time to convene a summit on oil

The inexorable rise in the oil price, from below $20 to $126 in less than a decade, makes governments look powerless. But governments can ease the economic harm of a high oil price – if they act together. In order to do so they should put oil at the heart of the next Group of Eight summit, or even better, organise a wider summit to bring together industrialised countries, big emerging market oil consumers and large oil producers.

The Australian - Woodside sells hot rocks stake in Geodynamics

WOODSIDE has continued to withdraw from the alternative energy sector, yesterday announcing it has sold its remaining holding in hot rocks hopeful Geodynamics.

Woodside said it had sold shares totalling 5.46 per cent of Geodynamics capital for about $17 million.

On the market, Geodynamics dipped 4.27 per cent, or 7.5c to $1.68.

This is well below the peak Geodynamics quote of $2.38 seen in May 2005.

The Age - Oil industry costs continue their steep rise as raw material prices skyrocket

COSTS to tap into new oil and gas projects have escalated about 6% globally over the past six months and the climb could steepen because of soaring prices for steel and other raw materials, according to a study.

The Age - Going green is an economic issue

THREE days before the release of his review into the economics of climate change in November 2006, Sir Nicholas Stern met with Wayne Swan in the British Treasury. Swan has called that meeting "the most important public policy discussion I have had in my political life". He knew that if the science of this problem was even half right, global warming and the resulting climate change would have dire consequences for Australia.

Although climate change is undoubtedly the most fundamental environmental problem the world has yet faced, tackling the dynamics behind it is not an environmental policy problem. If any economy is going to succeed in the difficult task of maintaining economic growth and progress while limiting and reducing greenhouse emissions, the cabinet minister who has carriage of economic policy must play a key role.

If Australia is to achieve the low carbon economic transformation that this problem requires, fiscal and economic levers beyond emissions trading will need to be employed.

I believe we are misreading the signals created by Chinese demand for Australian commodities. Firstly it hardly seems fair to punish Aussie mortgage holders with high interest rates when they are only a minor contributor to the Asian boom. Secondly in echoes of Howardism the new lot seem to be saying we need more population, more infrastructure, more economic backbone and more resource depletion to maintain the pace. That could look silly one day.

For starters I'm sure the Chinese would like to send their own people to work the mines. Buying big chunks of BHP and Rio Tinto could be a first step. Yes that does sound like Arthur Caldwell. One day either the rich deposits will be run down or the Asian boom will have run out of steam. We will be left with holes in the ground and a bunch of clapped out plasma TVs with few jobs or money to buy new ones. So I think it may be a good thing for everybody if the Asian boom slowed and both economies moved to a more sustainable footing.
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Changing tack I'm not writing off Geodynamics yet as they still have a year to supply the outback town with geothermal electricity. If that doesn't pan out no doubt supporters will say they were shafted somehow.

Agreed - I don't know why the RBA thinks making interest rates rise will affect inflation when all the driving forces are international.

The only thing I can think of is that they think putting people out of work in the south east will make them move to Queensland and WA and reduce cost pressures and labour constraints for all the new infrastructure / extraction development.

In which case I think they are going beyond what they should be doing.

As for Woodside, they are dropping off all there alternative energy investments (Ceramic Fuel Cells too this week), not just GeoDynamics. They've decided they are happy just being an Australian LNG company - classic American management - focus on the next quarterly earnings statement.

The sooner we outsource all economic advice to an Indian call centre the better.

We will probably get the same advice, and given it will be at least 50 times cheaper the probability of some financial gain is vastly increased.

Soon to be made redundant Australian economists should of course relish the opportunity of demonstrating the overall economic benefits of this proposal as a demonstration of Ricardos Theory of Comparative Advantage: it would be hypocritical not to.

Note: the wiki entry has an interesting reference that suggests that this theory is impossible to falsify which to those who know their Popper, means it is, to put it nicely... outside the realms of science (possibly). discussion starts at p 13(15)

More comments from Andrew McNamara - QLD state Sustainability Minister

Drivers face fuel ration shock

Thanks for that link - I hadn't seen it.

It mentions the new documentary (discussed here a while ago) - "Australia Pumping Empty: the Looming Peak Oil Crisis" which premieres next week too.

... to those who know their Popper, means it is, to put it nicely... outside the realms of science (possibly)

Or as Asimov might put it, wronger than wrong ...

On the issue of the Rudd Government being more similar to previous ones than different, it is fascinating (and frustrating) the things that people see as important points of distinction. For me, there is so little difference that it is barely worth voting, but for others it is huge, and a whole new dawn for the place. Can't see it myself, and nothing in a policy direction, or the budget, has convinced me otherwise - even slightly.

We are a quarry and a beach, and should breed more - pretty much sums up our 2020 vision.