The Oil Drum: Australia/New Zealand

This article is quite well balanced in its views, and pulls no punches when it comes to stating that future demand for oil will exceed supply siting fundamental population and energy needs issues. However the following comment is typical of the mainstream media in how it will initially and quite fairly reference oil price and supply issues but then revert back to how 'peak oil' is a load of hogwash (given proven reserves), used by some backward group of people infering their not to be listened to, This is a classic example...

"A small band of sceptics view today's record prices as evidence that oil supplies have peaked — that half the globe's supply has already been used up. But most experts believe there are still enough reserves, discovered and undiscovered, to last at least through the middle of the century."

Ofcourse, there are significant proven reserves, but the author fails to clearly articulate Peak Oil as a natural geological phenomenon which is understood by an inability for the production capacity of future oil resources to adequately make up for the shortfall of the existing declining oil supply on a world scale. It's introduction is not required for readers here. Again, if proven reserves are harder to reach, more energy and investment is required before oil can flow and diminishing returns on investment result. When you add the other issues mentioned in the article such as resource nationalism, increasing population, the high rate of growth of China, India and the Middle East etc, then you get a potent cocktail of factors weighing against the 'business as usual' approach. Peak oil will just put all the above factors right smack bang in our faces, as economic conditions deteriorate as a consequence.

As always, conservation will be up front and centre of any strategy to mitigate the effects of peak oil, both for business and for individuals. At least this article begins to approach some of the more fundamental problems in the oil market. However, demonising Peak Oil will not do anyone any favours. It is possible that the mainstream media will never truly grasp the concept of Peak Oil and continue to lay blame with whatever event or series of events has led to the latest price shock. The unfortunate thing about that is, it keeps people from standing back and seeing the issue with perspective where people may gain an extra insight into the broad conditions which have set the current events in motion. An understanding of Peak Oil will, hopefully, provide and lead to three key understandings.. No.1 is a realisation that economic growth is dependent on cheap and available energy. No.2 is that conservation is needed from here on in - and that its not just until the oil price drops. And No.3 is that relocalisation and permaculture actually do allow for meaningful solutions and that, hey, you may actually get to work in partnership growing food with your neighbours - and perhaps you can handle their singing in the shower after all.