That makes me feel much better then - all along I was worried that they didn't have a plan - but now I know they are crossing their fingers and hoping (and considering paying the oil industry to do more exploration) I can relax.

I don't think Ferguson is softening us up for coal-to-liquids since he said the Boggy Ck CO2 storage experiment has to work. It won't and I doubt there will be any decent onshore or shallow water oil finds. Gav won't like this but I think Ferguson is not averse to nukes so I expect battery cars to get the nod soon.

Now that the penny has dropped at Ministerial level I think things must happen fast. Either fast action or fast dithering.

Ferguson at least seems to understand the Australian situation as it stands today but is still pushing the line that we will at least be able to import 80% but ata very steep cost. The penny has not yet dropped that the 80% my not be available to buy at any price. It still seems to be driven by an econmic agenda. As long as we can export LNG and import oil then everything is OK. What i we can't import the oil? What then? Maybe the minister will have got Kyles letter by then. Guess he'll have to do some intra ministry juggling to tell that to the tourism operators.

When did Lou Holtz move to Australia???

It remains to be seen what answer the Government hopes to get from this inquiry, but it can't hurt to have another one can it?

Rule number 1 in politics is never hold an enquiry into something where you don't know what the answer is, so I supect the minister is very well aware of Australia's vulnerability. The very title of the assesment has been couched in a negative term (vulnerability) rather than a positive term (outlook). This gives us a hint of what the government is thinking but wants someone else to actually deliver the bad news.

I suspect that Ferguson has read the MacNamara report, taken it all in and then let out a very long but quiet "Shiiiiiiitttt this is bad".

IMHO I think that he needs to get Peak Oil on the agenda early in the governments first term so that we can start the inevitable CTL vs GHG debate. Fergie will be all for CTL as will a number of other key ministers and Rudd will try to project himself above it all and apply a paternalistic even hand.

Australia is blessed with huge natural gas reserves. All that's needed are the pipelines to take the gas to the main centres, and all cars can run on it, replacing most oil.

The U.S. Geological Survey report Thursday called it the largest continuous oil accumulation it has ever assessed.

http://www.star-telegram.com/business/story/575614.html

May I suggest a Strategy to Reduce Australia's Vulnerability ?

Create a Non-Oil Transportation Alternative.

1) Electrify the railroads (at least half the track mileage), and induce freight to move from truck to rail by any of a variety of means. This also means less oil for roads repairs.

2) Construct either a high speed rail (300 kph) for passengers and packages only, or a semi-high speed rail (175 to 200 kph) for both passengers and express freight (such as fruit & vegetables, fish, critical inventory, etc.) from Adelaide to Brisbane. Sydney-Canberra-Melbourne would be a logical first phase.

I suspect that semi-HSR would have greater value at lower cost. Sydney-Melbourne might support one track at 300 kph and two tracks at 175 kph.

Combined with regular speed trains, such a system could provide a non-oil alternative for perhaps half of domestic air travel.

3) Rapidly expand trams, including some high value-high cost projects (Sydney comes to mind). Melbourne has a good system that could be improved, and all major Austrialia cities could be brought up to the Melbourne standard.

France intends to build 1,500 km of new tram lines in the next decade, some in cities as small as 100,000. Adjust for population and this puts Australia at 500 km of new tram lines.

4) Electrified commuter rail lines can be expanded significantly throughout Australia. Perth has just more than doubled it's commuter rail lines, yet still more can be done even there. (And Perth lacks trams).

5) Bicycles need to find a place for transport in Australia. Paris was "bike hostile" yet they have had great success with velibs (rental bicycles with kiosks every 600 m or so throughout Paris, first half hour free). More bike lanes and simply a change in attitude (commercials, TV programs, etc.) are likely needed IMVHO.

6) More walkable neighborhoods and less sprawl. Zoning and other changes are useful, but simply building more trams and higher petrol prices will do a lot to move in this direction.

Best Hopes,

Alan

G'day Gav,
Have been an admirer of your site for years but haven't had much to say having been caught up in arguments on TOD USA and related sites.
I share your doubts about Oz gas riding to the rescue. From what I have read in US based info viz Molly Ivins et al coal seam methane seems to have been pretty much an environmental disaster there from saline water entering creeks etc. Is anyone looking into environmental impacts in Oz?

As for securing NW shelf supplies for domestic supply you only have to look at the flak the WA Prenmier took over that one to see the difficulties involved.

I have been collating ABS stats for about 15 months re liquid fuels imports so I know that the pollies and Joe Public are blissfully unaware of the liquid fuels crisis that is just around the corner.

Liquid fuels imports for the 12 months ending Nov 07 were $A23.3 billion, and for the 3 months to Feb 08 totalled $A7.6 billion, and this does not include lubricants and related materials.This means that for the 12 months imports are likely to top $A30 billion not including price increases.

When you factor in the strength of the Australian Dollar affecting exports the deficit mentioned by Ferguson looks closer than 2015 to me.

Most people would be unaware that Vietnam is our main supplier of crude. They are currently building refineries due to come online this year and next which makes it likely that we will soon be purchasing product rather than crude which will further increase the trade deficit.

Thats if we can secure it as it is likely that other purchasers in the region without a current account deficit and lots of foreign currency reserve might be interested in this supply.

The further I look the more I am concerned that our liquid fuel supplies could virtually dry up overnight.

Remember stealing East Timors reserves is not an option open to us anymore.

Well, you weren't expecting any better energy policy from the Australian government than we get from the American government, were you?

Governments are doing right things to varying extents. Though these efforts are pretty small compared to what they ought to be.

Whatever research various governments are funding into renewables and nuclear will help. Ditto for battery research. Ditto regulations on more efficient appliances and houses. There are some moderately bright spots. But the scale just comes up far short of the problem.

Ultimately market forces will cause most of the solutions to get implemented.