Thanks Kiashu - interesting. A lot of previously oil burning industrial applications would have changed over to gas since the 80's soI wouldexpect a lot less elastcity in oil consumption this time around. Transportation may now represent a much larger proportion of oil consumption so recession induced demand destruction may not be all that much.
A google image search for "US oil consumption by sector" brings up,
So it seems that you're right, that industry and electricity generation use of oil has dropped, and transport use risen.
How elastic that transport use is, would be hard to say. Of course "transport" is not just Ma and Pa Kettle in their jalopy, it's freight. In a general slowdown or decline of the economy, we'd expect freight to drop quite a bit. But how much of transport oil use is freight?
I assume that "shipping" is domestic only, and that "light duty vehicles" is basically all private vehicles. Rail makes up only 2%, and freight trucks 16%. Air is 9.8% and shipping 3%. Of course not all rail etc is freight, but we can set it as a maximum: 30.8% of oil consumed is for freight, 61% for private transport, and the remaining 8.2% for other stuff.
It's hard to say off-hand which would have the most response to price rises. Logically you'd expect people to cut down on discretionary fuel use - ie, no more driving 500 yards to the shops for a bottle of milk, less weekends away, etc. But in a slowing or declining economy, people generally buy less stuff, so that freight should decline, too. Of course, if oil becomes expensive enough, that means some freight might move from trucking to the more efficient rail - but are the USA's railways up to it, or have they been neglected like Australia's? I wouldn't know.
All this - which areas of the economy, which kinds of consumption and such - get affected first and in what ways, that seems like a subject for a TOD article. It's a bit over my head. I'm up there with the big global picture, and with the gritty details down on the ground, but that middle level is a bit out for me.
It looks like indusrial and electricity generation took the big hit in the 70's, but they had viable alternatives to go to. Transport didn't really contribute much to any lowering of demand. Suburban patterns have changed a great deal too so that more people are driving further distances to commute to jobs, which is not exactly discretionary. I also think it is hard to judge what will happen with freight. Short term you just load the truck with 30 tonnes rather 40 but the truck still does the same trip. Mid term, freight gets consolidated onto fewer trucks as the demand for goods moderates. Long term we will haveto see a complet restructure ofteh logistics industry.
If you take Woolworths as an example, they currently only load the trucks half full from the giant distribution centres as it is more efficient to deliver the goods straight to the supermarket floor, that way, rather than unpack pallets by an army of night fillers. It is hard to imagine that sort of just in time freight network being turned around quickly just becasue the oil price goes up astronomically. It will definitely be felt at the checkout counter no doubt.
One idea that IMO makes a great deal of sense is home delivery of Internet shopping.
One (possibly electric or hybrid) truck can replace dozens of trips.
If we had a carbon trading scheme it might be possible for end consumers to earn a small amount of 'carbon credits' by this method thus incentizising it. Alternatively if fuel costs go through the roof the price signal may be incentive enough.
Thanks Kiashu - interesting. A lot of previously oil burning industrial applications would have changed over to gas since the 80's soI wouldexpect a lot less elastcity in oil consumption this time around. Transportation may now represent a much larger proportion of oil consumption so recession induced demand destruction may not be all that much.
A google image search for "US oil consumption by sector" brings up,
So it seems that you're right, that industry and electricity generation use of oil has dropped, and transport use risen.
How elastic that transport use is, would be hard to say. Of course "transport" is not just Ma and Pa Kettle in their jalopy, it's freight. In a general slowdown or decline of the economy, we'd expect freight to drop quite a bit. But how much of transport oil use is freight?
I assume that "shipping" is domestic only, and that "light duty vehicles" is basically all private vehicles. Rail makes up only 2%, and freight trucks 16%. Air is 9.8% and shipping 3%. Of course not all rail etc is freight, but we can set it as a maximum: 30.8% of oil consumed is for freight, 61% for private transport, and the remaining 8.2% for other stuff.
It's hard to say off-hand which would have the most response to price rises. Logically you'd expect people to cut down on discretionary fuel use - ie, no more driving 500 yards to the shops for a bottle of milk, less weekends away, etc. But in a slowing or declining economy, people generally buy less stuff, so that freight should decline, too. Of course, if oil becomes expensive enough, that means some freight might move from trucking to the more efficient rail - but are the USA's railways up to it, or have they been neglected like Australia's? I wouldn't know.
All this - which areas of the economy, which kinds of consumption and such - get affected first and in what ways, that seems like a subject for a TOD article. It's a bit over my head. I'm up there with the big global picture, and with the gritty details down on the ground, but that middle level is a bit out for me.
It looks like indusrial and electricity generation took the big hit in the 70's, but they had viable alternatives to go to. Transport didn't really contribute much to any lowering of demand. Suburban patterns have changed a great deal too so that more people are driving further distances to commute to jobs, which is not exactly discretionary. I also think it is hard to judge what will happen with freight. Short term you just load the truck with 30 tonnes rather 40 but the truck still does the same trip. Mid term, freight gets consolidated onto fewer trucks as the demand for goods moderates. Long term we will haveto see a complet restructure ofteh logistics industry.
If you take Woolworths as an example, they currently only load the trucks half full from the giant distribution centres as it is more efficient to deliver the goods straight to the supermarket floor, that way, rather than unpack pallets by an army of night fillers. It is hard to imagine that sort of just in time freight network being turned around quickly just becasue the oil price goes up astronomically. It will definitely be felt at the checkout counter no doubt.
One idea that IMO makes a great deal of sense is home delivery of Internet shopping.
One (possibly electric or hybrid) truck can replace dozens of trips.
If we had a carbon trading scheme it might be possible for end consumers to earn a small amount of 'carbon credits' by this method thus incentizising it. Alternatively if fuel costs go through the roof the price signal may be incentive enough.
Regards, Nick.