The Oil Drum: Australia/New Zealand

Again there seems to be a lack of knowledge about these two century old inventions, the train and the river barge.

According to the CIA worldfactbook, the US has,

4,165,110 km of paved roads, which includes 75,009 km of expressways
226,612 km of railways
41,009 km of waterways, 19,312 km of which are used for commerce

The UP says

Railroads are three times more fuel-efficient than trucks. [...]

Railroad fuel efficiency has increased by 72 percent since 1980. Then, a gallon of diesel fuel moved one ton of freight an average of 235 miles. In 2001, the same amount of fuel moved one ton of freight an average of 406 miles.

Railroads and rail suppliers have reduced the weight and increased the capacity of rail cars to improve fuel efficiency and reduce emissions. The average freight car capacity is now nearly 93 tons, up 17 percent in just the past 20 years.

The EPA estimates that for every ton-mile, a typical truck emits roughly three times more nitrogen oxides and particulates than a locomotive.

[in freight capacity] 1 Double-stack train equals up to 280 Trucks

A train also takes physically less space than a truck for the same freight carried, and because it travels on rail, unshared by private transport, it's not subject to traffic jams.

So by converting all freight to rail, you could reduce your freight fuel use by two-thirds, even without electrifying any of your rail, just using diesel trains. In case you wish to object that this doesn't let freight be moved within cities, you might note that there exist in Europe freight trams; they take freight at night along the same tracks as the mass transit use during the day.

It should be borne in mind that in the US in the 1930s, the oil and car companies bought up the streetcar companies and eliminated them. See the Great American Streetcar Scandal. Streetcars were cheap to run, durable, and used little energy; obviously oil and car companies didn't like the competition. If trucks and cars were obviously superior to streetcars, then GM, Standard Oil and the like would not have had to use these dodgy methods to get rid of them, their natural superiority would have won them market share.

So just as crude extraction plateau's we are suddenly and with little if any planning going to switch to alternative sources of energy to replace 200 mbd?

Oh, certainly with no planning you'll achieve nothing useful at all.

But to say that if you make no plans at all you'll have difficulty adjusting to changes in the world, that's not exactly a profound insight into the world. Of course if you blindfold yourself and walk around you'll stumble.