The Oil Drum: Australia/New Zealand

Lucifer,

I don't think the doom scenarios arise from the fact that we will have to make major adjustments. I think they come from the realization of how some people will react when they learn they are going to have to give up what they believe are god-given rights and benefits (god bless America and nowhere else!) How many people like this are there? How willing will people be to let go their current habits of consumption?

In the depression there was hope because people knew it would end eventually and the country would get back on track and growing again. Most people got on with their lives, making adjustments as needed and weathered the storm. During the Arab oil embargo we all knew it would come to an end eventually, yet I personally witnessed two not-so-minor altercations between drivers waiting in line for gas. There was an attitude of entitlement that pervaded the scene.

What happens when people begin to realize that things will not be getting better any time soon? When energy production is in decline people will have to make permanent adjustments that very many of them won't like. Therein lies the potential for a doom scenario.

Couple this with the fact that climate change will put additional stresses on people. They may not have enough energy to adapt to the demands of a new climate regime. What about the availability of water and food. Dealing with peak oil by itself would not be impossible - look at Cuba. But dealing with other major resource depletions and climate change along with peak oil seems to me to be way beyond anything ordinary humans have ever had to face. The real question is what is the probability that they will react without violence?

George