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130 comments on Australia and the Export Land Model

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gTrout on February 22, 2008 - 1:56pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Hi WestTexas,

How did you calculate the growth and decline rates? For instance, the Saudi rate you quote is not the 2005 to 2006 rate. Is it the average growth (or decline) over some number of years going back? Thanks.

Saudi Arabia’s initial 10 year projected production decline rate is -2.7%/year ±2% per year. The projected rate of increase in consumption is +4.4%/year ±2% per year. Their initial 10 year projected net export decline rate is -4.7%/year ±4%. Our middle case shows Saudi Arabia approaching zero net exports in 2031, within a range from 2024 to 2037.

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westexas on February 22, 2008 - 2:04pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

We used the predicted range of consumption and production numbers for 2015 to give us the low case, middle case and high case projected net export decline rate from 2005 to 2015.

Once production in a given exporting country starts falling, the actual net export decline rate tends to accelerate with time, which is what we are almost certainly going to see for Saudi Arabia in 2007 versus 2006.

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gTrout on February 22, 2008 - 2:47pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Sorry, I meant how did you get the +4.4% consumption number for Saudi Arabia? Is that the average of the last 2 years demand? Or three years? Or some other procedure? I don't doubt the results, I would just like to be able to explain how it was calculated if someone was to say, why shouldn't it be 2.2%.

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westexas on February 22, 2008 - 3:00pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Khebab used a Monte Carlo simulation method, based on recent consumption, to estimate a range of future consumption, which resulted in very low projections for Russia.

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