 | The Bullroarer - Friday 22 February 2008 | TOD: Australia/New Zealand | Tapping The Source: The Power Of The Oceans |  |
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This declining net export theme was first written about by John Hallock in a 2002 paper (with Hall and Cleveland) reviewed here on Energy Bulletin.
Heres a link to the full paper, "Forecasting the availability and diversity of global conventional oil supply" (pdf warning 1.4mb)
Matt Simmons, who inspired my work, started talking about rapidly rising consumption in exporting countries in the same time frame.