The problem is symmetric in that potential adversaries will also be facing reduced availability of fossil fuels. All sorts of force can be projected while fossil fuels are abundant. I really don't foresee any major strategic problems afterwards. Certainly ANZ can repel attacks from sailing ships.
My personal opinion is the greatest risk that security forces have to adjust to is the concept of "adversary".
Peak Oil is going to be great for world peace and hell on local peace.
An armored brigade on the move is an awesome site. And so is refueling it.
The oil supply system mandates peace with todays weapons. Pipelines, refineries, etc... can be taken out with a few cruise missiles (conventional warheads). Every major adversary has plenty of these. Even the terrorist respect their benefactors by not attacking the oil infrastructure in earnest. Most major pipelines extend for vast distances absolutely unguarded.
"If you take it, you will not be able to use it." Will trump military adventure. The size and mass of current military equipment makes it pretty unusable in Post Peak Oil. Further, priorities will go to fuel for tractors not fuel for tanks.
The real risk is from gangs, local warloads and vast numbers of ordinary people desperate to feed their kids. Just as self-reliance is going to be critical in growing your own garden so will self-reliance be critical in providing security.
I do believe "the lion will lay down with the lamb" requires following the operating instructions that lambs have to be tough enough to make lions eat grass.
I would encourage political leaders to immediately put in place Universal Service. Everyone gets trained for 2 weeks - 2 months (Add that no draftee will be assigned to foreign duty). It is not enough time to make good soldiers, but it is enough time to create a common sense that "we are not victims, don't tread on me." It will be enough to force people to plant a garden.
Victory gardens are essential, self-reliance in providing security is essential.
Micro haven't you noticed how the global alignments are changing - both Saudi and Iran are pretty chummy with China now and no wonder - a Chinese army could march there...
It is during power down that one army has fuel and its opposition does not - any pwoerplays that are to be made will be made at this time...
Obviously destructive weapons like nuclear tipped ICBMs will be around for decades. But sea invasions will not happen. There is no need.
What will happen is that due to the collapse of Breton Woods II, financial realignments will make ANZ economic colonies of China instead of the US. Most people won't notice. They will strive as hard to earn the almighty yuan as they formerly tried to earn almighty dollars.
The problem is symmetric in that potential adversaries will also be facing reduced availability of fossil fuels. All sorts of force can be projected while fossil fuels are abundant. I really don't foresee any major strategic problems afterwards. Certainly ANZ can repel attacks from sailing ships.
My personal opinion is the greatest risk that security forces have to adjust to is the concept of "adversary".
Peak Oil is going to be great for world peace and hell on local peace.
An armored brigade on the move is an awesome site. And so is refueling it.
The oil supply system mandates peace with todays weapons. Pipelines, refineries, etc... can be taken out with a few cruise missiles (conventional warheads). Every major adversary has plenty of these. Even the terrorist respect their benefactors by not attacking the oil infrastructure in earnest. Most major pipelines extend for vast distances absolutely unguarded.
"If you take it, you will not be able to use it." Will trump military adventure. The size and mass of current military equipment makes it pretty unusable in Post Peak Oil. Further, priorities will go to fuel for tractors not fuel for tanks.
The real risk is from gangs, local warloads and vast numbers of ordinary people desperate to feed their kids. Just as self-reliance is going to be critical in growing your own garden so will self-reliance be critical in providing security.
I do believe "the lion will lay down with the lamb" requires following the operating instructions that lambs have to be tough enough to make lions eat grass.
I would encourage political leaders to immediately put in place Universal Service. Everyone gets trained for 2 weeks - 2 months (Add that no draftee will be assigned to foreign duty). It is not enough time to make good soldiers, but it is enough time to create a common sense that "we are not victims, don't tread on me." It will be enough to force people to plant a garden.
Victory gardens are essential, self-reliance in providing security is essential.
Micro haven't you noticed how the global alignments are changing - both Saudi and Iran are pretty chummy with China now and no wonder - a Chinese army could march there...
It is during power down that one army has fuel and its opposition does not - any pwoerplays that are to be made will be made at this time...
Yes, but no one will be able to march to ANZ.
Obviously destructive weapons like nuclear tipped ICBMs will be around for decades. But sea invasions will not happen. There is no need.
What will happen is that due to the collapse of Breton Woods II, financial realignments will make ANZ economic colonies of China instead of the US. Most people won't notice. They will strive as hard to earn the almighty yuan as they formerly tried to earn almighty dollars.