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55 comments on Warning: The Mining Boom is Fading Fast
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You can read many reports with these kind of projections. It is a matter of fact that crude oil production peaked in 2005. Read here:
"Did Katrina Hide the Real Peak in World Oil Production? And Other Oil Supply Insights"
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3052
I do not think the exact date matters. Anyway the data is not transparent enough so it is also OK to say that oil peaked in a three year period 2004-2007. It could be even longer if we stay on this bumpy plateau.
The real issue is increasing demand in China, India, Russia and the OPEC countries. Last year 70m cars were sold. Maybe even more will be sold in 2007, many to people whose only trade in is a bike.
With flat supply, what is driving those extra cars? Or are we all driving less, or smaller cars?
Actually the real issue is Peak Oil and lack of additional supply. Demand from China and India is way below US and European demand. There is even increasing demand in the US believe it or not.
If there was additional supply available e.g. some new Saudi Arabia or magic bullet were found then no problem at all Oil would be at $10 per BBL.
Umm. Even if we found a magical new Saudi Arabia that could instantly produce 8 mbd, and even if the rest of the world could magically not decline, we would be right back at peak oil in 4 years (2% growth rate). At 3%, it would only take 3 years.
It doesn't matter how much new oil we find, we cannot grow oil production.